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Dorset_Weather Contributor

Dorset_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL
Posted

18z NAE still not coming on board, and has the LP, and thus snow potential futher north than other models.

11121606_1412.gif

11121612_1412.gif

Well thats looking a little better for my wind event :p

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

WOW< Just checked the latest GFS coming out now.

Its completely killed off any potential round here..

Just goes to show how much can change..

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

WOW< Just checked the latest GFS coming out now.

Its completely killed off any potential round here..

Just goes to show how much can change..

Also shows how much the storm is still changing it may be better or worse on the run after.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Hot off the press

11121606_1418.gif

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Paul T Explorer

Paul T

Posted
  • Location: Portishead
  • Location: Portishead
Posted

A mixed bag from the charts, i would rather it shoots up the channel as per gfs, as that increases the chances of snow around the NE of the westcountry imo., but the temps still arent that low. The lack of genuine engrained cold means that the low hasnt got much cold to mix with...

still up in the air, but i cant see a big snow event as yet.

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

18z GFS is not looking good at all! Very Little snow for our region!

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo.png

Not good! But still more runs needed to be sure as we can be! See what the mornings runs come up with!

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Have a look at Ian Furgosons twitter... NAE incresed snow risk for southwest ect... :air_kiss:

http://twitter.com/fergieweather

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Have a look at Ian Furgosons twitter... NAE incresed snow risk for southwest ect... :air_kiss:

http://twitter.com/fergieweather

Yes, NAE looks nice.

But the NAE and GFS are in quite a disagreement. Id hope the NAE wins..

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Brilliant! NAE has now increased it and GFS has now decreased it! Cant the models agree on anything! Reminds me of Cameron and Clegg this does! Lol!

Not great IMBY, but better for Gloucs. and Wiltshire!

11121612_1418.gif

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Brilliant! NAE has now increased it and GFS has now decreased it! Cant the models agree on anything! Reminds me of Cameron and Clegg this does! Lol!

NAE seems to me like a higher res model.. ( is it? ) I would hope that the NAE is simply seeing something that GFS isnt. ( Maybe the NAE has an input from something the GFS doesnt have either? )

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

NAE seems to me like a higher res model.. ( is it? ) I would hope that the NAE is simply seeing something that GFS isnt. ( Maybe the NAE has an input from something the GFS doesnt have either? )

Your correct, NAE is higher res model! Just be nice to have a little model agreement, thats all!

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

nothing is reliable im not gunna take any of the models seriously as it will all change again by morning

Completely agree, But fun isnt it? :smilz38:

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Wynn D Woo Rising Star

Wynn D Woo

Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
Posted

Knife edge stuff, but where would the fun be if the models all agreed with each other :p

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted (edited)

nothing is reliable im not gunna take any of the models seriously as it will all change again by morning

Oh I'd bet money on that, question is for better or worse, hopefully better and that snow line moves sw to cover more of our region.

This reminds me a bit of a similar scenario back in the late 90s I think it was, had colder air over us back then though and the foreast was for snow from the m4 southwards, last forecast I'd seen the night before still showed it on track yet the following morning the lp ended up hitting northern france instead and we were bone dry!

Edited by Smartie
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Erbyskerby Rookie

Erbyskerby

Posted
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
Posted

Wind has really started to pick up here on the north coast of Cornwall - is this that windy feature off the coast of southern Ireland? I thought someone mentioned it as an extra feature before the problematic main low is supposed to arrive?

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Wind has really started to pick up here on the north coast of Cornwall - is this that windy feature off the coast of southern Ireland? I thought someone mentioned it as an extra feature before the problematic main low is supposed to arrive?

Yeah, That would be it. :) Your gonna get wet soon lol

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Your correct, NAE is higher res model! Just be nice to have a little model agreement, thats all!

Yes i agree however i doubt the snow line will be that straight either ect but it shows a good southwest movement of snow potential and if that was to be the final 'correct chart' id take bank that anyday as gives somerset, bristol, wilts and glouc all much better chance. :clapping:

I should really lay off the wine tonight! one and a half bottles is really starting to make life hard on this forum :help:

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted (edited)

Its rather annoying in that if the uppers were a degree or two colder, then we could be looking at a near perfect channel low scenario here!

PPVG89.png

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Yes i agree however i doubt the snow line will be that straight either ect but it shows a good southwest movement of snow potential and if that was to be the final 'correct chart' id take bank that anyday as gives somerset, bristol, wilts and glouc all much better chance. :clapping:

I should really lay off the wine tonight! one and a half bottles is really starting to make life hard on this forum :help:

:) Ive almost finished a whole bottle of Spiced rum so far :) ( Got the next two days off work, So im allowed. Ner ner. )

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Erbyskerby Rookie

Erbyskerby

Posted
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
  • Location: Constantine Bay, Cornwall
Posted

Yeah, That would be it. :) Your gonna get wet soon lol

Ha ha ha :-) - had a few sharp showers in the past few minutes - things are definitely picking up around here but to be fair we usually have a good winter gale once in a while so it is nothing new!

Any other Cornish correspondents on here tonight?

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

TWITTER WHY YOU NO WORK ANYMORE!!!!

Grr

Want to get updated from Ian and Twitters broken.

Ive heard that M4 / Glos etc could be in for trouble on friday..

Not sure where the Meto are getting this data but ill trust em.

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

TWITTER WHY YOU NO WORK ANYMORE!!!!

Grr

Want to get updated from Ian and Twitters broken.

Ive heard that M4 / Glos etc could be in for trouble on friday..

Not sure where the Meto are getting this data but ill trust em.

That would be from the 18z NAE

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dancing daisy Contributor

dancing daisy

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
Posted

TWITTER WHY YOU NO WORK ANYMORE!!!!

Grr

Want to get updated from Ian and Twitters broken.

Ive heard that M4 / Glos etc could be in for trouble on friday..

Not sure where the Meto are getting this data but ill trust em.

Same re Twitter. Give the man his due, he is rarely wrong so if he says snow then snow we will get.

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