The South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[Andy Bown]

Really what is the point of the head banging icon thing, it suggests one is fed up with the situation!?

Here we are on 14 December with the first snowfalls of the winter having happened via heavy showers both yesterday and today, somehting which nobidy

really expected given the overall situation - it just shows what is possible when precipitation is heavy enough, dragging down temperatures.

It has been the coldest day since early March (max 4.3c) and for much of the time it has been below 3c.

The situation for tomorrow night into Friday has been so uncertain throughout the week and will continue to be so until the LOW has moved away. I sincerely hope people don't get fed up and moan about not getting snow by Friday morning - it wasn't even a possibility until a few days ago, until then we all looked like get torrential rain and severe gales!

I am loving this fast moving, changeable, never know what's going to fall from the sky set up! And to top it all the cloudscapes have been stunning!

In the shortt term (until tomorrow morning) I think the main hazard will be icy roads/pavements.

[Lynxus]

tbh, Even with the low moving north or south it will be interesting weather for us..

Its either

Breezy with snow showers..

Really windy with rain...

Im not sure what id prefer.. The Snow certainly will look nice, but wont come to much..

[alex12]

.

It can but as you said, the NAE is a High res model so it's not a good sign!

However, on a positive side, the Meto latest update on the track of the storm is more promising! The most likely outcome they invisage would bring snow to North Somerset northwards! Cotswolds could get a lot from that track!

On Iphone so can't post link, but go into Model thread and a link as been posted there, you can see what I'm on about then!

I think that update would of been done before the 12z NAE though! See what fergie says later me thinks! Not getting my hopes up just yet!

do you think my location could get any snow?

[lfcdude]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/wintry-and-unsettled

Well looks like a typical head ack... but i hope the most likely comes off...

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

tbh, Even with the low moving north or south it will be interesting weather for us..

Its either

Breezy with snow showers..

Really windy with rain...

Im not sure what id prefer.. The Snow certainly will look nice, but wont come to much..

infact the snow could be 5-10cms over the likes of the cotswolds - latest from met

[SilverWolf]

Alternating wet snow and sleet at the top of Stroud, must be cold now, got a bit of a covering. Can see Slad valley from here, proper white over there. Very happy with this weather too, every type of precip poss, and thunder and lightning yesterday! And yeah the skies have been amazing. Early winter too.

[AWD]

do you think my location could get any snow?

It all depends on the track of the LP! There is no yes or no answer yet sorry! Keep watching the weather forecast and Met Office updates! Be prepared for snow, but don't be dissappointed if you don't get any!

[alex12]

It all depends on the track of the LP! There is no yes or no answer yet sorry! Keep watching the weather forecast and Met Office updates! Be prepared for snow, but don't be dissappointed if you don't get any!

Will keep an eye out! got spoilt this time last year!

[AWD]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/wintry-and-unsettled

Well looks like a typical head ack... but i hope the most likely comes off...

I hope the most likely comes off too, but the damn NAE as gone with something very similar to the less likely map! Still great uncertainty! I think this is going to be a nowcast event! Get yourself as far north and as high up in the region you can people! Lol!

[Nights King]

Really what is the point of the head banging icon thing, it suggests one is fed up with the situation!?

Here we are on 14 December with the first snowfalls of the winter having happened via heavy showers both yesterday and today, somehting which nobidy

really expected given the overall situation - it just shows what is possible when precipitation is heavy enough, dragging down temperatures.

It has been the coldest day since early March (max 4.3c) and for much of the time it has been below 3c.

The situation for tomorrow night into Friday has been so uncertain throughout the week and will continue to be so until the LOW has moved away. I sincerely hope people don't get fed up and moan about not getting snow by Friday morning - it wasn't even a possibility until a few days ago, until then we all looked like get torrential rain and severe gales!

I am loving this fast moving, changeable, never know what's going to fall from the sky set up! And to top it all the cloudscapes have been stunning!

In the shortt term (until tomorrow morning) I think the main hazard will be icy roads/pavements.

No not at all just exausted from model changes ect. There is alot of shower activity moving in towards west country for about an hours time I wonder with falling temperatures and abit of luck with intensity if some could get more surprises with wet snow this evening?

[AWD]

Good news! GFS 12z has snow from North Somerset/Mendips northwards from Friday 5am until midday Friday! If GFS verified, Cotswolds would have a dumping, even Bristol and Bath would get a covering! All to play for yet, just wish the NAE will come on board now! All eyes to the ECM!

[lfcdude]

I hope the most likely comes off too, but the damn NAE as gone with something very similar to the less likely map! Still great uncertainty! I think this is going to be a nowcast event! Get yourself as far north and as high up in the region you can people! Lol!

aye just have to see what ian is going to go for on points west later, another good source is his twitter,

anyways nice to see you back mullender

[AWD]

Its the NAE vs the

GFS

[Nights King]

Good news! GFS 12z has snow from North Somerset/Mendips northwards from Friday 5am until midday Friday! If GFS verified, Cotswolds would have a dumping, even Bristol and Bath would get a covering! All to play for yet, just wish the NAE will come on board now! All eyes to the ECM!

Seems to drag that cold air into our region quicker than before on that run gfs. looks like turning wintry from bristol area from around 3/4am

[Drew]

Not far. Between Cutsdean and Snowshill

[jethro]

The METO have updated their thoughts on the likely path of the storm, together with ideas of where snow is likely:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/wintry-and-unsettled

[AWD]

Uppers are borderline on the 12z UKMO. The further north you are the better here.

Although, they do spread south as the morning progresses, perhaps suggesting less prolonged back edge snow for the East of our region.

All in all a mixed bag regarding snow potential Friday Morning.

NAE is bad

UKMO is Ok

GFS is good

[Rich_Clements]

Alternating wet snow and sleet at the top of Stroud, must be cold now, got a bit of a covering. Can see Slad valley from here, proper white over there. Very happy with this weather too, every type of precip poss, and thunder and lightning yesterday! And yeah the skies have been amazing. Early winter too.

Had the day off yesterday and was sat at home when I heard that thunder, thought I was loosing my marbles at first.

[SilverWolf]

Had the day off yesterday and was sat at home when I heard that thunder, thought I was loosing my marbles at first.

Wasn't aware we had any marbles getting so excited about the weather!! Was hoping for heavy snow with that one...

Edited December 14, 2011 by SilverWolf

[lfcdude]

fergieweather Ian Fergusson

@

@BlagdonWeather will explain all we know on @bbcpointswest this eve re Thurs-Fri developments

Cant wait for points west now after seaing that, hope it aint a let down lol

[Lynxus]

LOL.

Theres a lot of snow up in the Cotswolds and people are stuck.. Apparently the gritters and council were unaware of any talk about snow.

Makes me wonder who on earth gives them the info..

They were out gritting the roads last week when it was 10c at night!!! ( I was shocked that they were gritting as there were less than zero chance of anything remotely like ice. )

Now when its been ~2 or 3c all day, They havent done anything..

Gotta laugh

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Wel im shocked after recieving an inch of snow in an hour about 4pm this evening iv gone outside and its heavy sleet and a rapid thaw of snow , i thought it would be snow now as the temp drops ect but no, can anyone help with this pls? I noticed on the gfs the 528 dam line left us at 6pm and i didnt think too much of it at the time but maybe it was bang on ? Thoughts pls !

[Mark Neal.]

LOL.

Theres a lot of snow up in the Cotswolds and people are stuck.. Apparently the gritters and council were unaware of any talk about snow.

Makes me wonder who on earth gives them the info..

They were out gritting the roads last week when it was 10c at night!!! ( I was shocked that they were gritting as there were less than zero chance of anything remotely like ice. )

Now when its been ~2 or 3c all day, They havent done anything..

Gotta laugh

Sod's Law!

[Nights King]

Wel im shocked after recieving an inch of snow in an hour about 4pm this evening iv gone outside and its heavy sleet and a rapid thaw of snow , i thought it would be snow now as the temp drops ect but no, can anyone help with this pls? I noticed on the gfs the 528 dam line left us at 6pm and i didnt think too much of it at the time but maybe it was bang on ? Thoughts pls !

The 850's have risen slightly from -3/4c - -2/3c which may be the reason and they will climb again towards mid night so I doubt the showers will be of snow for west country for much longer. See what Ian F says on points west.

Just seen points west and looks like somerset and south and west of there will probably miss out unless it moves abit although another good forecast by Ian F

Looking good for cotswolds though whatever happens.

Edited December 14, 2011 by mullender83

[lfcdude]

well after that forecast.. im ok with it Wiltshire still in the game.. not looking so good towards somerset and Dorset tho.