The South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[Zephyr]

Brilliant! NAE has now increased it and GFS has now decreased it! Cant the models agree on anything! Reminds me of Cameron and Clegg this does! Lol!

Not great IMBY, but better for Gloucs. and Wiltshire!

That looks really close for the Yate area hope this system shifts south a few more miles then I might be happy come Friday morning!

[Lynxus]

Fyi: Anyone else in the abbeymead area of glos. If we get a good dumping. We can all meet in the huge field by Morrisons and make the worlds biggest snowman (or slushman ).

Ill be the guy wrestling with the ball of snow 3x my size that ive rolled 1/2 mile

Edited December 14, 2011 by Lynxus

[khodds]

Aaarrrggghhhh! This time last week I was excited at the prospect of a winter storm, now it's dangling snow under our noses! Is it me or does it creep ever closer to us on each run?

I can't take the suspense!

Edited December 14, 2011 by khodds

[Jane Louise]

Fyi: Anyone else in the abbeymead area of glos. If we get a good dumping. We can all meet in the huge field by Morrisons and make the worlds biggest snowman (or slushman ).

Ill be the guy wrestling with the ball of snow 3x my size that ive rolled 1/2 mile

I'm in Minsterworth, nr FOD. Is that too far away Lol :smiliz19:

[Aceman]

Yes i agree however i doubt the snow line will be that straight either ect but it shows a good southwest movement of snow potential and if that was to be the final 'correct chart' id take bank that anyday as gives somerset, bristol, wilts and glouc all much better chance.

I should really lay off the wine tonight! one and a half bottles is really starting to make life hard on this forum

surely its making it easier

got a half day tomorrow so will be watching the NW forums for updates, expecting another rollercoaster day. Agreed it would be rather boring if it was too predictable.

[lfcdude]

Just come on going to have a cash up on the post but saw ians twitter and :D

fergieweather Ian Fergusson

“@danhkent: 18z NAE increases snow risk for the West Country†indeed. Could be truly dire Fri AM Cotswolds/M4 & elsewhere. Stay tuned...

[Jane Louise]

Ok, was only doing my job. Guess I don't really fit in here .Felt like that last year too in this SW forum... have fun!!

[Lynxus]

Ok, was only doing my job. Guess I don't really fit in here .Felt like that last year too in this SW forum... have fun!!

Wait , What? Someone picking on ya? : Eyes up the forum :

[MP-R]

Hmmm, I'm a bit skeptical about Friday now. The BBC weather map was very misleading with rain and snow appearing and disappearing all over the place. I'm just hoping it doesn't turn out the the BBC's all so common north of the M4 affairs.

[dancing daisy]

Ok, was only doing my job. Guess I don't really fit in here .Felt like that last year too in this SW forum... have fun!!

Wassup Jane?

[Mark Neal.]

_{So i'm not the only one who has had trouble getting onto twitter in the last 30 minutes.. Damn!}

Edited December 14, 2011 by Mark Neal Ballooning

[lfcdude]

_{So i'm not the only one who has had trouble getting onto twitter in the last 30 minutes.. Damn!}

My twitter is working fine

danhkent Dan Holley

@

@fergieweather very interesting development - shame those graphics won't update on the Beeb 'til midnight...

of twitter watch bbc foracast at 12.. should show big improvements

Edited December 14, 2011 by lfcdude

[dancing daisy]

Mine is working now. Quotes from Ian's twitter feed.

Jst finished long conference w UKMO colleagues. Pls keep tuned to f'casts 4 Thurs night/Fri AM. Glos/M4 Wilts snow issue Fri AM: not good...

18z NAE increases snow risk for the West Country†indeed. Could be truly dire Fri AM Cotswolds/M4 & elsewhere. Stay tuned...

[Lynxus]

ok, Twitter seems a lil more stable now.

Few seconds ago:

fergieweather Ian Fergusson

Agreed Liam. Could be dire. “@liamdutton: @fergieweather Not looking good, is it? Heavy, wet snow, settling very quickly at the wrong time.â€

[Jane Louise]

It's all been sorted now. I have a good feeling for snow up here Friday, now that cheers me up no end

[dancing daisy]

I doubt we will get any here and that suits me just fine. I have got far too much to do once I finish work and I don't want another nightmare like last Christmas.

I come on here as I love seeing everyone else's excitement! So good luck to the rest of you, a non snow shaped hole over my town suits me just fine ta very much, although the daughter will think differently.

[Lynxus]

It's all been sorted now. I have a good feeling for snow up here Friday, now that cheers me up no end

Tbh, FOD tend to do well in these kind of events. Glos gets some wet stuff maybe 1cm.. Then I hear news of ~foot of snow over in FOD..

I cant wait to watch these models tomorrow.

The next 48 hours are gonna be fun.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Hi all, hope you all get lots of snow tomorrow better not be a north of the m4 event lol!

[kumquat]

NAE shows a marginal chance for Bristol again. (Better than no chance). I have to say I don't trust those pinks too much on the NAE model. All the required factors seem extremely marginal for Thurs/Friday event, as it did for Bristol over the past couple of days (the mystical Bristol Channel Streamer). All I've seen out of it is heavy rain, some very wet sleet and a couple of heavy hail showers). Wish I had some more height here and can't believe how often we appear to be right on the edge of snow chances (Cotswolds, hills out towards Bath, Wiltshire etc...)

Stil..very interesting model watching and so much better than the models were showing back in November. At least this IS weather!

[lfcdude]

the thing is.. who saw this coming a week ago? no one... was strong winds and heavy rain... even ian on points west said i dont see any snow for 14 days on points west last friday? he should eat some humble pie...

Its mad how fast snow pops up out of no where a few days before on the models

[jethro]

Oh dear I hope this is wrong...

Thanks for that M, made me laugh. That image is priceless.

[Lynxus]

the thing is.. who saw this coming a week ago? no one... was strong winds and heavy rain... even ian on points west said i dont see any snow for 14 days on points west last friday? he should eat some humble pie...

Its mad how fast snow pops up out of no where a few days before on the models

I dunno, Im sure there were mutterings of snow last week. Mainly because of the northerly blast followed on the western flank of these LP's..

But yeah. I agree that things do pop out of the woodwork un announced.

This was meant to be just a windy affair and as you said, That focus has completely changed.

I fear that if the LP was further north, We would have major issues.

We would have SNOW and VERY strong winds down south.. Just lucky we mainly have one to contend with currently.

[Iceberg]

Quick round up of the 00Z's.

The low placement now has very good agreement to just stay offshore in the channel for most of it's travel.

This places the northern limit of the precip a bit further south than some models suggested yesterday. However for our region thats good news all models agree that the precip will turn to snow from early Friday onwards.

So for the NE of the region, Glocestershire, forest of dean it's likely to turn to snow from about 4-5am onward.

For Bristol and N Wiltshire 6am onwards.

For Somerset and maybe a few other places 7am onwards.

The biggest problem is whether there will be enough precip after these times to turn to snow and this is where they disagree still a bit. Still the best areas are the cotswolds northwards but others could still see snow, if it falls hard enough on the wet ground.

[Nights King]

Still looks like a very marginal situation for us in west country!

Local forecast didnt sound too great for anywhere sout of bristol really.

Still abit of time for that southwards shift....

[Bristawl Si]

Still looks like a very marginal situation for us in west country!

Local forecast didnt sound too great for anywhere sout of bristol really.

Still abit of time for that southwards shift....

Acoording to Nick Sussex in the Model disc Thread latest NAE downgrades snow potential - wait for the New Year to arrive for us folk me thinks.