Atlantic Storms - 13th December 2011 Onwards Part 3

[Raidan]

Lol more thunder,been more active here today than it has been in the last 3 years!

[Coast]

British weather is like buses, nothing for ages and then.........

[Raidan]

Would prefer a proper thunderstorm but I'm not complaining with what we've had so far

[johnholmes]

In this thread is the usual up to date and first class forecast of all things convective from Nick F.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71903-uk-severe-convective-and-storm-forecast-netweathertv/page__pid__2183194#entry2183194

believe it or not the correct thread for telling us all about thunder etc etc is NOT this thread but this one

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/49166-welcome-all-to-the-storm-enthusiasts-group/page__pid__2182127__st__140#entry2182127

where Jane also provides a link to another area for talking about thunder, hail, etc etc rather than this-PLEASE can we use the correct threads to discuss all the really interesting weather the UK is getting and predicted to have

many thanks

[DeepSnow]

As I just said in the wales thread we have had strong winds, heavy rain, hail, sleet and thunder and lightning today! Also caused a powercut!

Edited December 13, 2011 by DeepSnow

[johnholmes]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71897-tuesday-13th-december-2011-weather-general-chat/page__pid__2183423#entry2183423

or even the above link

PLEASE

[knocker]

The midday Atlantic chart. I hope this the right thread John. Thinking of the developing low mid Atlantic.

Edited December 13, 2011 by weather ship

[Lauren]

I assume the hail and thunderstorms you're getting over in the west aren't coming this way?

[gottolovethisweather]

For those in the Southern part of the UK and for any other interested parties I've posted an update with charts in the Central Southern Regional thread.

Possibly not that accurate but then again I'm not a paid meteorologist and the MetO have kindly given NW acces to the charts so the hard work has been done for me.

Temperatures progressively getting cooler here in Newbury from the heady heights of 11.2c overnight.

A mere gust of 37mph at 03:40 was the early hours best on offer, but usuable rain of 25.6mm from the frontal rain and other bits n pieces so far.

Best Wishes

gottolovethisweather

[knocker]

METO snow warning.

Issued at: 1214 on Tue 13 Dec 2011

Valid from: 0300 on Tue 13 Dec 2011

Valid to: 1000 on Wed 14 Dec 2011

Heavy showers will fall as snow over ground above about 100 m, and at times to low levels too. Accumulations of 10 cm or more are possible on hills, and there may also be some slushy accumulations at low levels. As a result some roads will become icy at times.

Very strong winds will accompany the showers at times, notably across Northern Ireland, parts of northern England and southern and western Scotland.

The public should be aware that travel may be disrupted as a result of the bad weather, notably over high ground where combination of strong winds and snow could lead to temporary blizzard conditions. There is also a risk of interruptions to power supplies.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/beta/weather/warnings/

Edited December 13, 2011 by weather ship

[Coast]

So who fancies going up the Eiffel Tower on Friday morning, first thing? :ph34r:

France and Germany will have more than the Euro to worry about if this came off:

Time to dig out l'umbrella!!!

I really don't want this scenario for anyone and certainly not coming back our way in the next runs

[knocker]

Doesn't seem to much agreememt between the GFS and METO for Friday at the moment.

[Lauren]

What sort of damage would we see if this did come back our way Coast?

[Callie]

Got dark really early today and now we have thunder!

[Coast]

What sort of damage would we see if this did come back our way Coast?

Wouldn't want to even hazard guess. It's still a way off to start thinking about it

Got dark really early today and now we have thunder!

and a great big anvil on its way too!

[Gorath]

British weather is like buses, nothing for ages and then.........

Could be worse. The weather could be like rural busses.

You wait for ages and ages, then... nothing comes. So you walk, cycle, or drive instead.

As for the disagreement between GFS and the MetO - I'm leaning more towards the MetO personally. Not because I want to see their forecast come true, but because the GFS simple doesn't seem to have been very accurate over the last few days.

Edited December 13, 2011 by Gorath

[bobbydog]

erring on the side of caution i suppose, but the Meto are not writing off fridays storm just yet,

Issued at - 13 Dec 2011, 12:31

Valid from - 15 Dec 2011, 18:00

Valid to - 16 Dec 2011, 23:59

There remains a risk of very strong winds and heavy rain moving eastwards across parts of England and Wales later on Thursday and through Friday. In addition there is a risk of locally significant snowfall occurring, mainly on high ground towards the north and west of this warning area. However there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the northward extent of any severe weather though southern parts remain most prone.

[Lauren]

Right don't laugh at me because I don't know if I am being had on but....

I have my old geography teacher on facebook and she says a rule of thumb for atlantic storms is: wherever the storm looks like it is going to track, go 50-100miles north and that is where it's really going to track.

Any truth in that or am i really gullible?

[Coast]

Here we go, that's what's under that cloud formation I guess:

[pyrotech]

First change on GFS latest run in the most potent part of the Jet has moved Northwards from the Below Ireland to accross Southjern Ireland by 9am Thursday.

This COULD help the system move a little further North than last GFS run

[Bluebreezer54]

Ive seen a report elsewhere of one, possibly two funnel clouds in the Herstmonceaux area this afternoon. Any other observations ?

[Andy Bown]

Stunning photos Coast, been like that here all day with anvils viewable by moon light until 07.30, reflecting the sunrise around 08.00, filling the sky all day and now shining bright in the sunset sky!

I assume the hail and thunderstorms you're getting over in the west aren't coming this way?

No, they'll continue to move W-E and steadily die out inland as they have done all day. You may be more likely to get something that develops along the S coast.

[Coast]

Ive seen a report elsewhere of one, possibly two funnel clouds in the Herstmonceaux area this afternoon. Any other observations ?

Kaddy LP or Mr Fish will have it on BBC SE Today later I guess.

[frankie01]

awful lot of people going to be very disappointed i reckon (assuming they love the weather being a bit mental) cant see there being much in this for us.

[pyrotech]

Better from GFS a little deeper and Fridays storm now centred over South West England / Bristol Channel - With the Jet shifting In a more north or westwards direction than previously forecast where jet dived south this is heading in right direction. Still worst winds into France but i would expect fiurther adjustments Northwards yet. Heavy rain very likely if this comes off