February CET

[North-Easterly Blast]

2006-07 was a similar match to the last six months in terms of persistent warmth at the same time of year (autumn and winter) though Jan and Feb 2007 were still quite a bit milder than this year.

A year in the more distant past which was similar to the last nine months or so was in 1898-1899. In 1898 the July was on the cool side, but like in 2011, in July 1898 the mean minimum was low but the mean maximum wasn't especially so. In 1898 the autumn was on the warm side, though less so than in 2011, and the winter of 1898-1899 was very mild with little in the way of cold spells, and little snow, and even milder overall than winter 2011-12 will turn out.

OK, the weather in the last nine months may not match the weather from June 1898 - Feb 1899 exactly month by month, but those nine months of that year bear striking similarities to the same period during these last nine months..

[damianslaw]

I'm surprised how mild maxima got up to today - we didn't have wall to wall sunshine and a deep seated southerly - I'm sure we have had many similiar synoptics set ups during many Febs which failed to deliver maxima of 18 degrees.

Feb in recent years has often been a month of two contrasting halves, 2009 saw a cold first half and very mild second half - like this year, 2008 saw an unsettled first half followed by a very dry sunny second half, 2005 and 2006 saw colder second halves and mild first halves. Feb 2010 was consistently cold - nothing exceptional but it was a decent winter month, but such months have been very rare in the last 25 years, even 1991 ended with a mild last week.

This feb cet value masks a month of two very contrasting halves with hardly any average conditions, just cold/very cold, or mild/very mild. This winter also must go down as one of the most least northerly/easterly ever, with winds predominantly coming from a west to southeast direction, with very shortived northwesterly winds - can't remember the last true northerly - probably last July - when they are no good to anyone.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I'm surprised how mild maxima got up to today - we didn't have wall to wall sunshine and a deep seated southerly - I'm sure we have had many similiar synoptics set ups during many Febs which failed to deliver maxima of 18 degrees.

Feb in recent years has often been a month of two contrasting halves, 2009 saw a cold first half and very mild second half - like this year, 2008 saw an unsettled first half followed by a very dry sunny second half, 2005 and 2006 saw colder second halves and mild first halves. Feb 2010 was consistently cold - nothing exceptional but it was a decent winter month, but such months have been very rare in the last 25 years, even 1991 ended with a mild last week.

This feb cet value masks a month of two very contrasting halves with hardly any average conditions, just cold/very cold, or mild/very mild. This winter also must go down as one of the most least northerly/easterly ever, with winds predominantly coming from a west to southeast direction, with very shortived northwesterly winds - can't remember the last true northerly - probably last July - when they are no good to anyone.

The first half of Feb 2006 wasn't that mild; in fact in 2006 the second half was slightly milder than the first half. You are correct about Feb 2005 though. I can also add another contrasting Feb to the list - 2004. That year the first half of Feb was very mild, with an exceptionally mild first week. It then turned colder from the 20th, resulting in Feb 2004 seeing a second half about 5*C colder than the first half.

Regarding this winter and how it will turn out, yes it has been significantly milder than the last three, although not as mild as 2006-07 and 2007-08. Although on one hand even despite not being cold, the post Xmas part of winter 2011-12 could turn out to be slightly colder overall than the post Xmas part of winter 2010-11, and the two week cold spell we got this winter from the end of Jan through until almost mid Feb was colder than anything that winter 2010-11 delivered after Christmas. Basically winter 2011-12 has not been much different to 2010-11 apart from being without a cold spell to begin with. Most parts of the country have seen below average snowfall, and a number of areas have seen little snowfall, but if anything the post Xmas part of winter 2010-11 saw very little snow and was virtually snowless for most of Britain.

Edited February 23, 2012 by North-Easterly Blast

[West is Best]

Basically winter 2011-12 has not been much different to 2010-11 apart from being without a cold spell to begin with.

Oh I'm sorry but I really can't let that comment slip through unchallenged!

Winter 2010-11 did indeed have a mild second half but it delivered the first sub-zero CET month for a quarter of a century and was the coldest December for over 100 years. At -0.7C for the whole month that was incredibly cold. It was also widespread.

As has been pointed out, the little cold snap in the eastern half of the UK this month hardly touched the far west.

The CET last winter despite the mild February was 3.1C. This year's CET is going to come out somewhere close to 5.1C which is a full 2C warmer than last year, a big amount for meteorological winter. Even January 2011 will be colder than anything winter 2011-12 will have produced if, as expected, the one colder offering this year rises up to near 4C.

And I haven't even mentioned the snowfall, which in 2010-11 was both intensive and extensive. Many parts of the UK this winter have seen nothing at all, and those who did saw something fleeting for a few days.

I couldn't leave that unchallenged because I think it's very wrong. Empirically winter 2010-11 was far colder.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Oh I'm sorry but I really can't let that comment slip through unchallenged!

Winter 2010-11 did indeed have a mild second half but it delivered the first sub-zero CET month for a quarter of a century and was the coldest December for over 100 years. At -0.7C for the whole month that was incredibly cold. It was also widespread.

As has been pointed out, the little cold snap in the eastern half of the UK this month hardly touched the far west.

The CET last winter despite the mild February was 3.1C. This year's CET is going to come out somewhere close to 5.1C which is a full 2C warmer than last year, a big amount for meteorological winter. Even January 2011 will be colder than anything winter 2011-12 will have produced if, as expected, the one colder offering this year rises up to near 4C.

And I haven't even mentioned the snowfall, which in 2010-11 was both intensive and extensive. Many parts of the UK this winter have seen nothing at all, and those who did saw something fleeting for a few days.

I couldn't leave that unchallenged because I think it's very wrong. Empirically winter 2010-11 was far colder.

Winter 2010-11 was the most pear shaped winter on record. It was completely without precedent to see such an extreme pre Xmas freeze up to deteriorate into next to nothing when Xmas was barely over. In fact after Dec 27th conditions were average at best, and any cold spells were due to high pressure sat over the UK, and not deep cold Arctic air. February was then very mild and devoid of anything cold. Something like winter 2010-11 had never happened before. Put it this way, take out the period 1st - 27th Dec 2010 out of the equation, then the entire post Xmas part of winter 2010-11 has a CET of 5.0, not the 3.1 that it ended up. It shows how a winter can be notable for having a notable severe spell in an otherwise average to mild winter, and not a cold winter overall; a bit like 1986-87, take out two weeks alone from the 7th - 20th Jan, and you add 1.1 to the overall CET, making it 4.6 rather than 3.5.

Lets look at winter 2010-11 to see how pear shaped it was. Despite January returning a CET close to the 1961-90, 1951-80 and older averages, it was 4.4*C warmer than the previous December, making it the third largest increase from December to January on record. The 7.1*C increase from December to February in the same winter is by some way the largest on record.

If Feb 2012 comes out with say a CET of 4.0, which seems possible; Jan 2012 had a CET of 5.4, then the average for Jan - Feb 2012 will be 4.7, which will be slightly colder than Jan - Feb 2011, which had a CET of 5.0 combined. So there is still a possibility that the post Xmas part of winter 2011-12 will be slightly colder overall than the post Xmas part of winter 2010-11. So on one hand two thirds of winter 2011-12 could turn out to be slightly colder overall than the same two thirds of winter 2010-11, making the only difference being that 2011-12 was without the cold spell pre Xmas compared to 2010-11.

Edited February 24, 2012 by North-Easterly Blast

[summer blizzard]

NEB, nobody is denying that last winter was pear shaped however i would ask why you take December out of the equation and not February.

The fact is that January 2011 was statistically 0.7C below the most recent average (you can use whatever older average you want but i will only ever use the most recent or the 1701-2011 average). It is all well and good saying that it would have finished at x if y was taken away but it did not and we got as month which i actually quite liked (dry, fairly sunny, several snow showers and one frontal event).

If we are cherry picking information then i will say that December-January had a CET of 1.5C.

As for being snow-less, maybe in some areas but not here which is why i will always defend last winter.

[West is Best]

NEB, i would ask why you take December out of the equation and not February.

It's the best way of dealing with inconvenient statistics?

Sorry NEB but this is garbage. You can put as much cherry-picking regional / monthly selective spin on things as much as you like but the simple fact is this:

Winter 2010-11 CET 3.1C

Winter 2011-12 CET likely to be around 5.1C

I rest my case m'lord.

I remember in the good old days of Stratos Ferric we'd be highly bemused when people would conveniently miss weeks out, or run months from 15th-15th. The best were ones which began 'this month would have been amazing if it weren't for the final week' etc.

Sorry NEB. Facts plain and simple. 3.1C vs c 5.1C No contest.

Edited February 24, 2012 by West is Best

[Methuselah]

I must admit that I find the 'similarities' between this winter and last very hard to see...

[reef]

Hadley is 3.3C to the 23rd. Yesterday was the mildest day of the year so far at 11.4C.

Today's min is 9.3C and maxima will still be high in the zone before the cold front moves through, so 3.6C is likely on tomorrow's update.

[johnholmes]

Winter 2010-11 was the most pear shaped winter on record. It was completely without precedent to see such an extreme pre Xmas freeze up to deteriorate into next to nothing when Xmas was barely over. In fact after Dec 27th conditions were average at best, and any cold spells were due to high pressure sat over the UK, and not deep cold Arctic air. February was then very mild and devoid of anything cold. Something like winter 2010-11 had never happened before. Put it this way, take out the period 1st - 27th Dec 2010 out of the equation, then the entire post Xmas part of winter 2010-11 has a CET of 5.0, not the 3.1 that it ended up. It shows how a winter can be notable for having a notable severe spell in an otherwise average to mild winter, and not a cold winter overall; a bit like 1986-87, take out two weeks alone from the 7th - 20th Jan, and you add 1.1 to the overall CET, making it 4.6 rather than 3.5.

Lets look at winter 2010-11 to see how pear shaped it was. Despite January returning a CET close to the 1961-90, 1951-80 and older averages, it was 4.4*C warmer than the previous December, making it the third largest increase from December to January on record. The 7.1*C increase from December to February in the same winter is by some way the largest on record.

If Feb 2012 comes out with say a CET of 4.0, which seems possible; Jan 2012 had a CET of 5.4, then the average for Jan - Feb 2012 will be 4.7, which will be slightly colder than Jan - Feb 2011, which had a CET of 5.0 combined. So there is still a possibility that the post Xmas part of winter 2011-12 will be slightly colder overall than the post Xmas part of winter 2010-11. So on one hand two thirds of winter 2011-12 could turn out to be slightly colder overall than the same two thirds of winter 2010-11, making the only difference being that 2011-12 was without the cold spell pre Xmas compared to 2010-11.

fine but a bit silly in my view.

Nothing this winter equates to the length, depth of cold and widespread snow that occurred in December 2010. So to suggest this winter is comparable to last winter in terms of the 3 months is pretty meaningless. Just goes to prove that with statistics one can almost prove black is white!

[North-Easterly Blast]

fine but a bit silly in my view.

Nothing this winter equates to the length, depth of cold and widespread snow that occurred in December 2010. So to suggest this winter is comparable to last winter in terms of the 3 months is pretty meaningless. Just goes to prove that with statistics one can almost prove black is white!

If you are looking for a winter that was cold overall, then 2009-10 definitely was, and 1995-96 was. 1978-79 was very cold overall, and so were 1962-63, 1946-47 and 1939-40. Winters like 1986-87 and 2010-11 were notable for having individual notable cold spells rather than for being cold winters overall. 2010-11 was the most pear shaped winter on record, and some others like 1996-97, 1917-18, 1925-26, 1927-28 also fall into the pear shaped winter category, although not on the scale of 2010-11. A pear shaped winter is one that is cold to begin with but deteriorates into nothing.

Edited February 24, 2012 by North-Easterly Blast

[johnholmes]

NEB I don't disagree one bit with you commenting on the whole winter just your idea of suggesting this winter is on a par with

2011-11.

Oh by the way in your notable winters, unless its my eyesight again, I don't see 1962-63?

This was the 3rd coldest ever since any records back to 1659, Scotland apparently not so, not sure where the Scottish winter of 1962-63 registers?

nor is it a winter I would want to live through again!

Edited February 24, 2012 by johnholmes

[The PIT]

Going up faster than the shuttle the CET I see. Sunny old Sheffield, just outside the CET zone is now at 3.5C and should past the average on Sunday. We could end up between 4.8c and 5.1c at the present rate amazing turn around considering on the 12th we were around or just below zero. A mild month a mild winter.

[Roger J Smith]

Once the final figures are posted on the daily site, I will update that earlier-posted list of first to second half reversals and fully expect that 2012 will be either first or second on the list. The increase from 12th is even more dramatic. PIT, we just needed a 31-day month for our 5.5 forecasts to verify.

[Weather-history]

If you are looking for a winter that was cold overall, then 2009-10 definitely was, and 1995-96 was. 1978-79 was very cold overall, and so were 1946-47 and 1939-40. Winters like 1986-87 and 2010-11 were notable for having individual notable cold spells rather than for being cold winters overall. 2010-11 was the most pear shaped winter on record, and some others like 1996-97, 1917-18, 1925-26, 1927-28 also fall into the pear shaped winter category, although not on the scale of 2010-11. A pear shaped winter is one that is cold to begin with but deteriorates into nothing.

To be absolutely blunt, I think its about time you put this one to bed. Constantly harping on about is beginning to annoy me and probably others. I am dreading if we get another mild April and you start the ridiculous "will we ever see a cold April again?" barrage of posts.

Edited February 24, 2012 by Mr_Data

[Stargazer]

I'm happy that my guess of 4.6 looks pretty close to the mark. Pity it was 2 days late

In the meantime, I'm reminded of February 2009, certainly down in these parts. Another veritable month of two halves that ended up close to average, although I think this February has seemed drier and sunnier than 2009.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well, 2011-12 winter is finally going to go down as a milder than average winter overall, though with a fairly potent two week cold spell starting at the end of January and for most of the first half of February, with outside of this any cold spells were shortlived. On another hand we did see some of the best examples of cold zonality of the polar maritime origin that recent winters have seen during the early to middle part of December, at least as good as this:

http://www.wetterzen...00120090120.gif

But still a long way to go to getting classic cold zonal polar maritime setups like these: http://www.wetterzen...00119840115.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119840124.gif

which was a famous example of the widespread cold and snowfall that a positive NAO / AO setup delivered, and shows that it is possible for a zonal pattern to bring quite the opposite to what it usually brings to the UK if the orientation is favourable.

Well we came half way from mild zonality to the above in early to mid December 2011, which was a rarity in recent winters, but will we ever get as far to seeing the likes of the above sort of classic cold zonality ever again. The lack of the above types of cold zonality was a large factor that has resulted in most winters of the last 20 odd years being largely mild.

Well facing up to reality it was always going to be very difficult to get anything as cold as 2009-10 this year, or for any cold spell comparable to Dec 2010 / Feb 1991 / Jan 1987 etc to happen this winter and the law of averages suggested that this winter would be average to mild. I also think that most LRF'ers were not thinking that winter 2011-12 would be anything special. On the other hand not so long ago in 2007-08 and 2006-07 we have seen milder winters and less in the way of cold spells than winter 2011-12 has brought.

One thing that I will say about winter 2011-12, is that I think that it will be a winter that is rarely mentioned or talked about on the forums next winter and in years to come. Although most winters in the last 20 odd years have been mild, the winters of 1988-89, 1989-90, 1997-98, 2006-07, 2007-08 and Jan / Feb 2002 were when the winter blowtorch pattern was in its full throttle, and winter 2011-12 was not "famously mild" and devoid of anything remotely wintry in the way that these winters were.

Winter 2011-12 didn't bring anything special in terms of a winter, nor was it "very mild" and devoid of anything remotely cold like the winters above were, so it will get very little mention on these forums in time to come, and won't be remembered for much by many people.

As mentioned before the past nine months or so have been remarkably similar to 1898-1899. July 1898 was on the cool side, but as in 2011, the mean minimum was low but the mean maxima wasn't especially so; autumn 1898 was on the warm side, although less so than in 2011, and winter 1898-1899 was very mild and mostly snowless with little in the way of cold spells, and milder overall than 2011-12. The weather during the past nine months may not have matched the same period in 1898-1899 month by month exactly, but has been strikingly similar.

So, another year that has tested the warm September = above average winter theory, and it has proved correct yet again. Whilst I do not think that there is any link between an average or cool September and the following winter, my view is that there is a bit of a link between a warm September increasing the chance of the following winter being milder than average, or at the least reducing the chance of colder weather during the following winter. There certainly have not been very many colder than average winters, in recent times at least, that have followed a warm September, say a Sept CET of 14.5 and above. Whilst many people talk about a warm, dry October increasing the chance of a below average winter to follow; I believe that the link between a warm September being more likely to be followed by a milder than average winter to follow is a stronger likelihood.

Edited February 24, 2012 by North-Easterly Blast

[Weather-history]

. Yesterday was the mildest day of the year so far at 11.4C.

Lower than people thought, 12.0C+ was speculated.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Regarding the warm September- warm winter relationship, 1955, 1981 and 2009 all featured warm Septembers and I don't think any of the three subsequent winters were particularly warm...

[North-Easterly Blast]

Regarding the warm September- warm winter relationship, 1955, 1981 and 2009 all featured warm Septembers and I don't think any of the three subsequent winters were particularly warm...

Septembers 1955 and 2009 are stretching it a bit when looking for anomalus September warmth, neither were more than 0.5 / 0.6*C warmer than average. On top of this, there may have been occasional colder winters following a warm September, but they certainly have been a rarity, and the vast majority of winters that have followed a warm September have been mild or average at best, except possibly for 200 years or more ago. There certainly is a trend that anomalus warmth during September reduces the chances of cold weather in the following winter, and is more likely to be followed by milder conditions during the winter.

Edited February 24, 2012 by North-Easterly Blast

[johnholmes]

Septembers 1955 and 2009 are stretching it a bit when looking for anomalus September warmth, neither were more than 0.5 / 0.6*C warmer than average. On top of this, there may have been occasional colder winters following a warm September, but they certainly have been a rarity, and the vast majority of winters that have followed a warm September have been mild or average at best, except possibly for 200 years or more ago. There certainly is a trend that anomalus warmth during September reduces the chances of cold weather in the following winter, and is more likely to be followed by milder conditions during the winter.

I'm not quite sure what you are trying to prove NEB in your recent spate of posts in here?

I'm in the middle of trawling through the CET data from 1900 to the present using 14.5C which you quote to see how many of the winter months following such events were above average for the 3 months, December, January, February. What one has to do as well as showing what you suggest you have shown is the opposite. In below average Septembers did above average winters follow, also in those Septembers when mean temperatures were 14.5C or above how many cold winter months occurred. Quite a big task.

So far all I have done is collate those Septembers when the mean was 14.5C or above, there have been 13, as far as my quick check suggests, most of these were in the last 25 years.

1985=14.6 followed by the Dec/Jan/feb means=6.3, 3.5, -1.1

1989=14.7=4.7, 3.7, 5.4

1991=14.7=4.7, 3.7, 5.4

1998=14.9=5.5, 5.5, 5.3

1999=15.6=5.0, 4.9, 6.3

2000=14.7=5.8, 3.2, 4.4

2004=14.9=5.3, 6.3, 4.3

2005=15.2=4.4, 4.3, 3.7

2006=16.8=6.5, 7.0, 5.8

2011=15.1=6.0, 5.0, ?

Averages for December, January and February, I 'think' 1961-

One can of course make out whatever one wants with statistics. The one I use is for 1971-2000 is 5.1, 4.2, 4.2 respectively.

1985 showed 2 winter months below average with one -ve

1989 showed 2 months above average

1991 2 months below average

1998 all 3 months above average

1999 all 3 months above average

2000 2 above 1 below average

2004 all 3 above average

2005 2 below average and 1 month JUST 0.1 above average

2006 all 3 above average

2011, to January both months above average

Those are the facts, how you want to dress them up is up to how we each decide.

apologies if in trying to get the data out I have made any errors.

aside from any errors I have made that is 29 winter months of which 21 were above average and 8 were below. Two of these below zero C.

Or if you like a 2 in 3 chance of milder than average winter months making it 1 in 3 of colder winter months. What now needs to be done is the suggestion I made above to test whether it has any scientific reality.

help one of you bright statistics bods!?

Edited February 24, 2012 by johnholmes

[stewfox]

If you are looking for a winter that was cold overall, then 2009-10 definitely was, and 1995-96 was. 1978-79 was very cold overall, and so were 1962-63, 1946-47 and 1939-40. Winters like 1986-87 and 2010-11 were notable for having individual notable cold spells rather than for being cold winters overall. 2010-11 was the most pear shaped winter on record, and some others like 1996-97, 1917-18, 1925-26, 1927-28 also fall into the pear shaped winter category, although not on the scale of 2010-11. A pear shaped winter is one that is cold to begin with but deteriorates into nothing.

The problem being Jan CET 2011 was below average how boring is this getting.2010-11 wasnt pair shaped it started very cold then a bit below average then mild. end off

[johnholmes]

No Stew, statistics for some of us is not boring, sorry if you feel that way, no more boring than the model thread for 6 months of the year being full of real or hoped for cold and snow regardless of what the charts show.

Its a weather discussion forum and this happens to be a discussion of what the statistics show?

[damianslaw]

Hazard a guess we will see the following CET values -

25 update - 3.6

26 update - 3.8

27 update - 4.0

28 update - 4.3

29 update - 4.6/4.7

with 0.4 downward adjustment - finishing value 4.2 or 4.3 degrees = a very average month overall masking the cold first half and very mild second half.

At the end of the second week I really did feel we had the chance of seeing our coldest feb since 91, and quite easily our coldest since 96, but alas the weather hasn't played ball and it has been very similiar to 2009. I was confident it would be appreciably our coldest winter month - but this was an easy prediction based on the massive cold pool to our NE at the start of the month. What killed the chances of it staying cold has been the PV which has remained stuck in situ and allowed the azores high to control events - had it split or retreated westwards more sufficiently then we would probably have maintained the cold block with some undercutting of the jet. However, I bet many have been surprised at just how events have unfolded this month and the recent anomalous warmth - don't believe many were seeing such a mild second half - overall it is going to go down as a very blocked month with weak frontal attacks from the west. Feb is often a very dry month with a weak atlantic. Its also been a very interesting month CET wise with strong cold and mild extremes.

I'm beginning to reflect on winter 11/12 as a whole and the more I do so the less downbeat my thinking is becoming - yes it hasn't been the deep freeze snow fest some of us would have liked, but neither has it been the wretched wind rain blowtorch fest of yester winters such as 1990, 97/98, 06/07 or 07/08, however the period between 19 Dec- 13 Jan was preety wretched for cold snow lovers and not something I would like to see repeated again - much rather have the mild at the very start or end of winter, and for N Ireland and Scotland conditions since christmas apart from the temporary cold in mid jan and the tail end of the month have been very testing for cold snow lovers, indeed this Feb as a whole has been woeful for the scottish ski season - truly spring like! - early-mid dec on the other hand was excellent for snow cover.

Edited February 24, 2012 by damianslaw

[North-Easterly Blast]

I'm not quite sure what you are trying to prove NEB in your recent spate of posts in here?

I'm in the middle of trawling through the CET data from 1900 to the present using 14.5C which you quote to see how many of the winter months following such events were above average for the 3 months, December, January, February. What one has to do as well as showing what you suggest you have shown is the opposite. In below average Septembers did above average winters follow, also in those Septembers when mean temperatures were 14.5C or above how many cold winter months occurred. Quite a big task.

So far all I have done is collate those Septembers when the mean was 14.5C or above, there have been 13, as far as my quick check suggests, most of these were in the last 25 years.

1985=14.6 followed by the Dec/Jan/feb means=6.3, 3.5, -1.1

1989=14.7=4.7, 3.7, 5.4

1991=14.7=4.7, 3.7, 5.4

1998=14.9=5.5, 5.5, 5.3

1999=15.6=5.0, 4.9, 6.3

2000=14.7=5.8, 3.2, 4.4

2004=14.9=5.3, 6.3, 4.3

2005=15.2=4.4, 4.3, 3.7

2006=16.8=6.5, 7.0, 5.8

2011=15.1=6.0, 5.0, ?

Averages for December, January and February, I 'think' 1961-

One can of course make out whatever one wants with statistics. The one I use is for 1971-2000 is 5.1, 4.2, 4.2 respectively.

1985 showed 2 winter months below average with one -ve

1989 showed 2 months above average

1991 2 months below average

1998 all 3 months above average

1999 all 3 months above average

2000 2 above 1 below average

2004 all 3 above average

2005 2 below average and 1 month JUST 0.1 above average

2006 all 3 above average

2011, to January both months above average

Those are the facts, how you want to dress them up is up to how we each decide.

apologies if in trying to get the data out I have made any errors.

aside from any errors I have made that is 29 winter months of which 21 were above average and 8 were below. Two of these below zero C.

Or if you like a 2 in 3 chance of milder than average winter months making it 1 in 3 of colder winter months. What now needs to be done is the suggestion I made above to test whether it has any scientific reality.

help one of you bright statistics bods!?

The problem being Jan CET 2011 was below average how boring is this getting.2010-11 wasnt pair shaped it started very cold then a bit below average then mild. end off

I hate to be rigid to using one individual set of 30 year averages to compare a month or season. Using an individual 30 year period tells you very little about the bigger picture outside it. I much prefer to compare a month or season to all sets of 30 year averages for recent decades including the 1971-2000, 1961-90, 1951-80, 1941-70, 1931-60 and so on. Doing this puts a month or season into perspective with the much bigger picture.

With a month like Jan 2011, I personally like to say that it was on the cool side of the most recent seasonal average, but close to average by the older sets of averages in recent decades. Winter 2005-06 was also on the cool side of the most recent seasonal average, though close to, or even fractionally above the older sets of averages in recent decades. Comparing them in this way puts a month or season into perspective with the much bigger picture rather than only the most recent 30 year average. Feb 2012 could well be another month that ends just below the most recent seasonal average, but fractionally above most of the older sets of averages in the last century.

You need to put a month or season into perspective with the bigger picture rather than only comparing it to the most recently measured set of averages.

My view is that you cannot call a month cold or mild if it less than 0.5*C above or below average. If you do that, there may only be 0.5*C, or at least less than 1*C difference between a month's temperature that you call cold and what you call mild. In my view I would call a month like Feb 2010 cold, and a month like Jan 2012 mild, as in this case there is over 2.5*C difference between a month that I call cold and one that I call mild. I personally call a month that is more than 0.5*C but less than 1*C above / below average as slightly above / below, and a proper below average or above average month is when it is more than 1*C above / below average.

A month that is between 0.5*C above and 0.5*C below average is still an average month to me. If anyone prefers, a good way to phrase it could be, that the month was close to, or slightly above average (less than 0.5*C above), or that the month was close to, or slightly below average for a month that is less than 0.5*C below.

Edited February 25, 2012 by North-Easterly Blast