February CET

[kold weather]

So we now know what the absolute maxima could be for this month in theory, 6.3C...as you saythat won't happen but it'll be interesting to see how that figure goes down as time goes by!

[Jack Wales]

It's looking exceedingly likely that February will finsh up with a CET of <2.5C. With more support for the northerly into next week, the CET could be around zero at the months half way stage. If so, even if the final two weeks finish with a +5C CET, this will still deliver a final CET of around 2.5C.

None of the models are showing a return to a sustained mild spell with most opting for HP inversion type cold, a cool NW'ly flow or even a reset of the easterly. I would guess the first two being the most likely outcome with a final CET of around 1.5C - 2.0C

[leicsnow]

As mentioned over in the model thread, going by the latest ECM, GFS and UKMO runs, particularly the latter two, there is still a fair chance of seeing a slightly sub-0 CET month, considering the agreement of the three models for a northerly is currently quite good. However, I'd say at this stage it's more likely that the CET will be above 0c. As you say, it's most likely to end up between 1.5c and 2.0c, which makes my original punt (as thread hoster) of 4.5c unlikely.

Also, February will probably be statistically the coldest month of 2012, unless we see a repeat of December 2010 at the end of the year.

Edited February 9, 2012 by Tellow

[summer blizzard]

-0.3C to the 8th.

When did 1996 and 1991 climb above the 0C mark.

[Stu_London]

Feb 1991 crossed the 0C barrier on the 22nd (the cold peaked between the 10th and 12th at around -1.7C)

Feb 1996 was far less impressive - the cold peaked on the 1st at -0.8C and there were only in fact 6 days in the whole month (1st, 2nd, 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th) where a below freezing reading was the figure in running.

So 2012 already more impressive that 1996 and I suspect that it will finish with a lower number. Reasonable chance we can stay below 0C until 14th (although I think the 1st Feb was above zero) Also 2012 is provisional and temps, particularly low minimums, tend to get even lower when final verification is completed.

[damianslaw]

Yes very good chance we will see our coldest feb since 1991, certainly should be our coldest since 1996 but I think we will easily beat 1996. As for beating Feb 91, yes I would say there is a good chance but the first sub zero Feb since 1986 does look highly unlikely - you never know...

[Milhouse]

Say we are 0c by mid month that will mean that, say if the rest of the month averages 2c, that will give us a final CET of 1c. 3c would give us 1.5c, 4c would give us 2c, and so on.

My money is on a finish of nearly 2c.

[Weather-history]

I think the chance of a sub-zero February CET is disappearing. It really needs that continental influence to stay for much of this month, the northerly is actually going to bring a rise in the CET certainly if it goes the ECM, GFS route.

[DR Hosking]

models this morning pedicting highs of 10c for central England in a weeks time, so will be well above 0c by then I suspect.

[reef]

Hadley is -0.3C to the 9th. Yesterday was -0.8C.

Today and tomorrow should manage sub-zero days in the CET zone, but Sunday onwards it turns milder and will quickly increase.

[kold weather]

Models still seem somewhat keen on troughing a PV lobe over Scandinavia. Won't be that cold over the CET zone in that flow as the sun will help to warm those maxes up BUT if that solution does come off stronger northerlies would be likely by 168-192hrs. I suspect for now something close to 2C will be the most likely outcome IF the scandi troughing does come off...if it doesn't then something between say 2.5-3C.

Either way looks pretty improbable that we end up reaching average now.

[damianslaw]

Models still seem somewhat keen on troughing a PV lobe over Scandinavia. Won't be that cold over the CET zone in that flow as the sun will help to warm those maxes up BUT if that solution does come off stronger northerlies would be likely by 168-192hrs. I suspect for now something close to 2C will be the most likely outcome IF the scandi troughing does come off...if it doesn't then something between say 2.5-3C.

Either way looks pretty improbable that we end up reaching average now.

I went for 2.8 degrees I think.. probably at the upper end of what can realistically be achieved. I do feel a sub 2 degree month is very likely.

[Weather-history]

So we now know what the absolute maxima could be for this month in theory, 6.3C...as you saythat won't happen but it'll be interesting to see how that figure goes down as time goes by!

Going off yesterday's value, down to 5.9C and that was getting rid of the lowest CET daily means in that period (10th Feb-1st March '98) and keeping the main mild core of that month.

Edited February 11, 2012 by Mr_Data

[BornFromTheVoid]

-0.3C to the 10th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 0.1C. Minimum for today is -4.2C while maxima should be around a little over 0C., so a drop back to -0.4C tomorrow is likely.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

-0.4C to the 12th (-0.5)

-0.1C to the 13th (3.8]

0.1C to the 14th (2.9)

0.5C to the 15th (6.4)

0.9C to the 16th (6.1)

1.2C to the 17th (5.9)

1.4C to the 18th (4.7)

[Optimus Prime]

Last nights minimum reading looks way to high to me.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Last nights minimum reading looks way to high to me.

Yes Optimus....

I have just checked Weather Online for TMIN's for the areas concerned and they average -8C for the Midlands (west).

That includes Pershore (-9),Manchester Woodford (-, and the nearest for Oxford is -11C.

If you include Shawbury(-2) and Hawarden(-1) in the NW Midlands, then average it is still at -6C.

If you exclude them then it is -9C.

How on earth have they got -3.5C?

Be interesting to see Philip Eden's version.

Midlands Ice Age

[damianslaw]

Could this month end up resembling Jan 2010 in terms of how the CET behaves? The first 10 days of Jan were very cold with a sub zero CET figure, we then saw a milder interlude mid month but some colder conditions during the final week, the month ending on quite a chilly note. I can't remember the final CET figure for Jan but I think it was below 1.5 degrees. Not saying we will end up with the same CET, but I think this month is doing a similiar thing - though the cold has lasted a couple of days longer, I do believe the final week or so will see a return to colder conditions meaning an appreciably below average month will be recorded. It isn't going to do Feb 09 on us.

[Milhouse]

If the 18z were to verify i could be back on track with my 2.9c. Would need a mean of roughly 5.8c from mid month onwards which looks achievable. 18z could have been one of the milder options so i will be conservative and opt for a likely finish in the low to mid 2s.

[Isolated Frost]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

-0.3c to the 11th. I suspect some large downward adjustments due to some recent harsh cold night-time temps.

[Snowstorm1]

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

-0.3c to the 11th. I suspect some large downward adjustments due to some recent harsh cold night-time temps.

lol my -2c guess looking too optimistic

[TonyH]

Well a big rise this week.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is on 0.2C today (Feb 1 - 13).

Looking at today's 06z GFS model overall it looks fairly mild until month end. Not sure the CET can get above average unless we have a fairly constant feed of TM air but an outcome between 3C and 4C is certainly feasible.

[DR Hosking]

Hadley is on 0.2C today (Feb 1 - 13).

Looking at today's 06z GFS model overall it looks fairly mild until month end. Not sure the CET can get above average unless we have a fairly constant feed of TM air but an outcome between 3C and 4C is certainly feasible.

Latest enembles would give us an average by the end of month as about spot on 4c, remarkabley warm given the cold of last week, I live on edge of CET zone and hardly got above freezing all week and had 2 lows sub -10c, I have a question, to me the location of the stations looks skewed to the west! Which is why despite most of central England having lows of -10c or lower on Saturday and Sunday the CET stations only recorded lows of -5c or so, likewise the high for Saturday was -3c and the CET stations recorded wall above that.

Another point worth noting, this year is a leap year, so February has an extra day, would this not skew figures for the month compared to other February's? Ok its only one in 29 days but its at the end of the month so likely to be warmer than the month average as a whole, any thoughts?

Edited February 14, 2012 by DR Hosking

[Kentish Man]

Yes DR you make some pretty fair comments. Yesterday the CET rose 0.4C yet in my area we had a slight overnight frost with mins a fraction below freezing and maxima not getting much above 4C, giving a daily CET of about 2C - certainly not high enough to cause an increase of 0.4C. The sow cover only finally disappeared last night. Western areas though were much milder (as they have been all month as you rightly point out). It is skewed towards the west and I guess that doesn't cause that much of a problem in normal years but this cold has had a marked easterly bias with counties like Linclnshire and Kent seeing the lowest temps. Some of this might be averaged out in the month end adjustment where we could easily see 0.4C lopped off.

[Jack Wales]

In order to achieve a CETof 4C, the final two weeks need to average a CET of 7.6C. That's a tall order, especially given the potential northerly progged for the weekend and inversion type cold from hp over southern UK thereafter. After adjustments I believe we will end up in the low 3's