February CET

[North-Easterly Blast]

I'm beginning to reflect on winter 11/12 as a whole and the more I do so the less downbeat my thinking is becoming - yes it hasn't been the deep freeze snow fest some of us would have liked, but neither has it been the wretched wind rain blowtorch fest of yester winters such as 1990, 97/98, 06/07 or 07/08, however the period between 19 Dec- 13 Jan was preety wretched for cold snow lovers and not something I would like to see repeated again - much rather have the mild at the very start or end of winter, and for N Ireland and Scotland conditions since christmas apart from the temporary cold in mid jan and the tail end of the month have been very testing for cold snow lovers, indeed this Feb as a whole has been woeful for the scottish ski season - truly spring like! - early-mid dec on the other hand was excellent for snow cover.

There have been longer periods in winters gone by of blowtorch SW'lies similar to 20th Dec 2011 - 13th Jan 2012. Jan & Feb 1990 were dominated by this almost throughout the two months. The entire part of winter 1988-89 saw this from around Dec 9th 1988 to the last week of Feb 1989, with interruptions lasting only 1-2 days at best. Feb 1998 saw this pattern all month after the first few days. Jan 13th - Feb 12th 2002 saw this for four solid weeks, a period of which had a CET of 8.0. Winter 2006-07 saw this for over three weeks from Dec 29th - Jan 20th, and for the rest of February after the 10th. Winter 2007-08 was like this for almost the whole of January.

Yes, winter 2011-12 definitely hasn't been the deep freeze and persistent cold like 2009-10 was, or seen a notable cold spell akin to Dec 2010 / Feb 1991 / Jan 1987 etc, or even anything like we saw on the scale of 1995-96, though it at least hasn't been comparable to the wretched zonal Bartlett dross of 2007-08, 2006-07, Jan / Feb 2002, 1997-98. 1990, 1988-89 etc.

[Weather-history]

No Stew, statistics for some of us is not boring, sorry if you feel that way, no more boring than the model thread for 6 months of the year being full of real or hoped for cold and snow regardless of what the charts show.

Its a weather discussion forum and this happens to be a discussion of what the statistics show?

With all due respect John, there is a difference between talking about stats and harping on about the same thing over and over again and I'm afraid NEB has being doing that with the winter of 2010-11, its the same thing over and over again, he banged on about this very point last winter and this is coming from someone as you know who regularly talks about weather stats.

----------------------------------------------------------

100 years ago, going back to the winter of 1911-12, there was a hidden cold spell that was lost within the overall stats.

17th January - 5th February 1912 CET: 1.2, the overall winter CET was 5.1, it seems to happen agan with this winter.

Edited February 25, 2012 by Mr_Data

[johnholmes]

I am going to leave the data as it is and not get embroiled in discussions about what data set to use. I know how I do it and how UK Met approach things so I'll leave it at that.

I have to say this seems a bit rich

You need to put a month or season into perspective with the bigger picture rather than only comparing it to the most recently measured set of averages

but never mind each to their own.

I

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is on 3.6C today (Feb 1 -24).

If the month ends on 4.3C after adjustments (and it won't be far away from that figure - see Damiens post above) I will have blown my chances of two correct CET answers in a row by changing my original guess downwards. Moral of the story is to stick with your first thoughts - it's so often true in life as well as on our little CET competition on here :winky:

[West is Best]

I'm not quite sure what you are trying to prove NEB in your recent spate of posts in here?

I've a friend who published a paper proving that serious earthquakes are more likely to occur on Sundays. He did it as a joke but to make a serious point. It was based on the very real facts, but it didn't make the inference right.

[Methuselah]

Hadley is on 3.6C today (Feb 1 -24).

If the month ends on 4.3C after adjustments (and it won't be far away from that figure - see Damiens post above) I will have blown my chances of two correct CET answers in a row by changing my original guess downwards. Moral of the story is to stick with your first thoughts - it's so often true in life as well as on our little CET competition on here :winky:

Well mate, if it does end up at around that value, my guess of 5.0C (which at one time looked ludicrous) will not be too far off the mark. More by luck than judgement, I hasten to add!

[Kentish Man]

Climate UK (Manley) has updated today-

CET: (Feb 1-26): 3.5°C (-1.0 degC)

E&W Rain: (Feb 1-26): 29.2mm ( 48 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Feb 1-26): 70.1hr ( 95 per cent)

© Philip Eden

Meanwile the Met Office Hadley stands on 3.8C (Feb 1 - 26) so the difference between the two has decreased.

[summer blizzard]

Driest month since last April if that is right?

[DR Hosking]

looks likely to be 4,4c thereabouts before corrections

[Peter H]

Hadley is on 3.6C today (Feb 1 -24).

If the month ends on 4.3C after adjustments (and it won't be far away from that figure - see Damiens post above) I will have blown my chances of two correct CET answers in a row by changing my original guess downwards. Moral of the story is to stick with your first thoughts - it's so often true in life as well as on our little CET competition on here :winky:

Even that doesn't reflect the sheer mildness of the latter three weeks of the month, or parts of the northwest of the UK for the whole of the month in general.

[Froze were the Days]

where abouts can I find the league for this?

[damianslaw]

I think we are on 4 degrees, and tomorrow easily 4.3 degrees thanks to the exceptional mildness of the last 24 hours, however, I am expecting a good 0.3 or possibly 0.4 degree downward correction so we could end up with a sub 4 degree month which will mean a slightly below average month - our first below average month since August.

The CET value however, disguises a month of two completely contrasting halves - a more extreme version of Feb 2009 which incidentally ended up with a very similiar CET value in the end - but with a slightly milder first half and slightly cooler second half. Feb 2005 also saw two contrasting halves with a very mild first half cancelled out by a cold second half.

[J10]

where abouts can I find the league for this?

If you mean the compeitition table, if hasn't been released yet for February, although if the CET is above 3.6c, which is very likely , it is looking good for you.

If you mean the latest Hadley value you can find it here

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html , it is 4.0c up to 27th.

[Backtrack]

I was wayyy out this time.

Really didn't anticipate warmth of this proportion in Feb.

Damn.

[Kentish Man]

Climate UK (Manley) has updated and is on

CET: (Feb 1-28): 3.9°C (-0.6 degC)

E&W Rain: (Feb 1-28): 30.8mm ( 47 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Feb 1-28): 76.4hr ( 94 per cent)

© Philip Eden

[summer blizzard]

Climate UK (Manley) has updated and is on

CET: (Feb 1-28): 3.9°C (-0.6 degC)

E&W Rain: (Feb 1-28): 30.8mm ( 47 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Feb 1-28): 76.4hr ( 94 per cent)

© Philip Eden

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/ranked_monthly/HadEWP_ranked_mly.txt

A lot of regional variability but it looks like last January was drier.

[Duncan McAlister]

Another cold first half of Feb scuppered. On the plus side my guess will be very close!

[Froze were the Days]

If you mean the compeitition table, if hasn't been released yet for February, although if the CET is above 3.6c, which is very likely , it is looking good for you.

If you mean the latest Hadley value you can find it here

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html , it is 4.0c up to 27th.

yes I meant the comp table over the last few months - I think I've done ok so far (just watch my March 'guess' come off the rails).

[J10]

yes I meant the comp table over the last few months - I think I've done ok so far (just watch my March 'guess' come off the rails).

Still having computer issues, but well done to Kentish Man for getting it spot on

while Milhouse, TonyH, Styx, virtualsphere, Timmy H were only 0.1c out.

Provisionally overall Styx, TimmyH,Thundery wintry showers are the 1-2-3

with last years winner Jack Wales up in there in 4th.

Jan 2012 CET b.pdf

Jan 2012 CET b.xls

Figures attached any queries please let me know

You were 2nd after Jan, and provisionally top after February,

[Styx]

I see a slight flaw in the competition, for someone each month can make their monthly CET prediction just a few tenths of a degree above the long term average, and whilst some months might be quite some way out, by the 12th month they will be very close to the yearly average.

Or have I got it wrong in how it is calculated.

[DR Hosking]

Philip Eden going for 4.05c for February

CET: (Feb 1-29): 4.05°C (-0.45 degC) E&W Rain: (Feb 1-29): 30.8mm ( 46 per cent) E&W Sun: (Feb 1-29): 77.0hr ( 92 per cent) © Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)

[Jack Wales]

I see a slight flaw in the competition, for someone each month can make their monthly CET prediction just a few tenths of a degree above the long term average, and whilst some months might be quite some way out, by the 12th month they will be very close to the yearly average.

Or have I got it wrong in how it is calculated.

The competition is to see who can guess the closest to the CET on a month by month basis, I think there is a sperate thread for the annual cet.

[J10]

I see a slight flaw in the competition, for someone each month can make their monthly CET prediction just a few tenths of a degree above the long term average, and whilst some months might be quite some way out, by the 12th month they will be very close to the yearly average.

Or have I got it wrong in how it is calculated.

The competition is to see who can guess the closest to the CET on a month by month basis, I think there is a sperate thread for the annual cet.

Indeed the scores are calculated on a month by month basis, and so you cannot win by simply going slightly abover average. However tactics do play a part and by going for around average values and slightly above, you are likely to be in the top 20-30 at the end of the year.

[damianslaw]

What was the final CET value for March?

Also is anyone going to do a post showing how well everyone did. This thread seems incomplete...

[Roger J Smith]

This thread can't move forward until we see the final numbers for February -- as of now, the official website is stuck on the value for the 27th. I'm sure everyone is watching for the final values. Then also I would be able to update the table that compares first and second half values, where this past February probably ranks in the top three or four in terms of upward change. Would have to think we'll see the final values later Tuesday.