February CET

[Peter H]

In order to achieve a CETof 4C, the final two weeks need to average a CET of 7.6C. That's a tall order, especially given the potential northerly progged for the weekend and inversion type cold from hp over southern UK thereafter. After adjustments I believe we will end up in the low 3's

It's funny how you can have a fairly low CET and yet the North West of the UK will have an extremely mild month overall (unless something very dramatic happens).

I suppose that's one of the problems of having a "Central England" temperature. It doesn't (and never will) give the overall true picture.

I can't see the rest of this month being anything other than mild. Possibly rather cold this weekend for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Northern England (they said that at the end of last week) . I hope I'm wrong,

[Polar Maritime]

It's funny how you can have a fairly low CET and yet the North West of the UK will have an extremely mild month overall (unless something very dramatic happens).

I suppose that's one of the problems of having a "Central England" temperature. It doesn't (and never will) give the overall true picture.

I can't see the rest of this month being anything other than mild. Possibly rather cold this weekend for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Northern England (they said that at the end of last week) . I hope I'm wrong,

You could be lucky and get some in your location.

But it's looking very very slim.

[damianslaw]

I am expecting a significant marked downward correction at the months end of about 0.4 degrees, some of the CET figures last week seemed too high given the very cold nightime minima..

As for the final figure, well it looks like Feb 2012 is doing a Feb 2009 on us - a cold first half cancelled out by a relatively mild second half. However, I do not foresee a particularly mild second half, this weekend will see slightly below average figures, and there is a strong signal for a cold end with high overhead moving NE - so some cold nights would pull the CET down further.

I do believe there is a strong chance of us coming in below 3 degrees still, but there is no chance now of beating Feb 91, and the chances of beating Feb 96 now look shaky compared to just 3 days ago.. but we shall see. At least this month is going to break the long chain of very very mild months that began last september,

[North-Easterly Blast]

If the second half of this month is as mild as the second half of Feb 2009, the CET would almost reach 4*C by the end. If the second half was as mild as the warmest second half of Feb ever, 8.4 in 1926, then a slightly above average month would result. The chances of a close to average CET for this Feb is not out of the question yet, but I would be very surprised if the second half of this month was as mild as in Feb 2009. It looks very likely now that the CET will reach 3*C or above by the end, which is still fairly dissappointing after the first 11 / 12 days were sub zero.

[damianslaw]

If the second half of this month is as mild as the second half of Feb 2009, the CET would almost reach 4*C by the end. If the second half was as mild as the warmest second half of Feb ever, 8.4 in 1926, then a slightly above average month would result. The chances of a close to average CET for this Feb is not out of the question yet, but I would be very surprised if the second half of this month was as mild as in Feb 2009. It looks very likely now that the CET will reach 3*C or above by the end, which is still fairly dissappointing after the first 11 / 12 days were sub zero.

With downward corrections I still believe there is a strong chance of coming in a little below 3 degrees.

[Isolated Frost]

I'd think the CET for the 15-29 period will be around 4-6c with the chance of easterlies late on still very much on- however it's very much mild atlantic for the majority of the next 7 days, with the exception of Saturday to Monday- which should come in around 3-5c with arctic air, but only cool temperatures in mainly sunlight for those in the CET zone.

My guess was 2.8c and I'd expect anything between 2.5c and 3.5c is most likely currently?

[West is Best]

Another big leap in the CET: up to 0.7C now and that's still 12 hrs shy of the mid-point. Something in the 3C's likeliest from here? But possibly over 4C.

[DR Hosking]

Another big leap in the CET: up to 0.7C now and that's still 12 hrs shy of the mid-point. Something in the 3C's likeliest from here? But possibly over 4C.

Just to illustrate the east west split on the CET for this month (I mentioned before the westerly bias of the CET stations) our local proper weather station (not digital) which is on the eastern side of the CET imaginary rectangle still has a average of -0.5c for the month up to today, compared with the official CET or +0.7c

[Kentish Man]

It is worth noting Philip Eden's Climate UK (Manley) is only on 0.1C today (Jan 1 -14) which may suggest a reasonable month end downward adjustment is on the cards. Against that the latest 06z GFS 16 day outlook looks even milder than yesterday.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum for today is 3.8C and maxima are a little below 10C, so the CET should be at 1.1C tomorrow.

After that, the GFS 06z would have the CET at

1.4C to the 16th (6.9)

1.9C to the 17th (9.0)

2.2C to the 18th (7.2)

2.2C to the 19th (2.4)

2.2C to the 20th (2.3)

2.5C to the 21st (7.4)

2.8C to the 22nd (9.5)

[coram]

Another big leap in the CET: up to 0.7C now and that's still 12 hrs shy of the mid-point. Something in the 3C's likeliest from here? But possibly over 4C.

You're hedging your bets a little bit aren't you West? Looks to me as if the CET will finish on about 3.7, before a large downward correction of 0.5 gives us a finishing figure of 3.2.

[Scorcher]

You're hedging your bets a little bit aren't you West? Looks to me as if the CET will finish on about 3.7, before a large downward correction of 0.5 gives us a finishing figure of 3.2.

Aren't you also hedging your bets? Slightly hypocritical?

[muppet]

I have set up a page that looks at the HadCET so far and then looks at the GFS forecast for the rest of the month and produces a prediction of the monthly cet.

as it stands it is forecasting 3.4c

you can follow its progress as it updates with every GFS run every 6h at

http://www.maidenerleghweather.com/allsnowgraphs.php

Edited February 15, 2012 by muppet77

[Great Plum]

Thanks Muppet... Very interesting...

I see that we are currently at 0.7c for the month and that the GFS predicts the rest of the month at 6.4c... Is that a record difference (if it were to come off?)

[coram]

Aren't you also hedging your bets? Slightly hypocritical?

No, I'm not being hypocritical because I'm not hedging my bets at all. I couldn't be more specific in my prediction.

[muppet]

Thanks Muppet... Very interesting...

I see that we are currently at 0.7c for the month and that the GFS predicts the rest of the month at 6.4c... Is that a record difference (if it were to come off?)

good question.

does anyone know the record difference between first and second halves of a month for cet?

either cold to warm or vice versa?

[West is Best]

No, I'm not being hypocritical because I'm not hedging my bets at all. I couldn't be more specific in my prediction.

This isn't a spread betting gambling site is it? :-)

I'm not quite sure why the monthly CET threads need to involve one making 'predictions' in the first place. There's no particular skill in sticking a tail on a donkey's derriere, and getting it in the right place is bound to happen from time to time.

A discussion about possibilities, even spanning several degrees if someone wants, seems to me to be entirely reasonable.

Up to 1.1C. Some frosts this weekend, but then some mild west / south-westerlies next week. No real signs of a major correction at the moment.

.

[The PIT]

Amazing how fast it can go up. In sunny old sheffield five days ago it was below freezing now it's up to 1.3c. GFS maybe undoing the weekends temp if the forecast I've just seen is right so we could end up higher than we imagined.

[Don]

Amazing how fast it can go up. In sunny old sheffield five days ago it was below freezing now it's up to 1.3c. GFS maybe undoing the weekends temp if the forecast I've just seen is right so we could end up higher than we imagined.

I thought last week that this February could well be the coldest since 1996 or even 1991. However, it's decided to do a February 2009 on us (with less snow) and at this rate it could end up finishing around the 1971-2000 average. Annoying really after the sub zero first 10 days. Definately what you call a pear shaped winter month!

Edited February 16, 2012 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

I ran a filter on my CET daily data set, taking the periods 1-14 and 15-28(or 29) as my half-monthly groupings ... in months other than February my default is to give the extra day to the first half, but with the leap year factor, we're going with 1-14 as first half even in a leap year case (as this one is). On that basis, the largest increases including all cases of 5.0 C deg are:

1799 .... 7.8 (-1.1 to 6.7)

1900 .... 6.6 (-0.7 to 5.9)

1803 .... 6.5 (+0.2 to 6.6)

2009 .... 6.2 (+1.0 to 7.2)

1876 .... 6.1 (+1.7 to 7.8]

1917 .... 6.1 (-2.2 to 4.0)

1991 .... 6.1 (-1.5 to 4.6)

1773 .... 6.0 (-0.8 to 5.2)

1841 .... 5.7 (-0.4 to 5.3)

1912 .... 5.6 (+2.5 to 8.1)

1830 .... 5.4 (-0.5 to 4.9)

1911 .... 5.3 (+2.2 to 7.5)

1895 .... 5.0 (-4.3 to 0.7)

1953 .... 5.0 (+1.8 to 6.8]

Some comments ... a few rounding situations can be seen, for example 1917, depending on second decimals the difference may not be exactly as suggested from the two halves ... almost by necessity most of these examples include a subzero start to the month, but in 1846 which had a near-normal first half of February, the second half was about four degrees warmer and the last six days averaged a very warm 10.6 C. The most spectacular February reversal was probably 1830 which stayed cold through 20 days, reaching a CET average of -0.2 on the 20th, then went 8.1 for the last eight days, changing the monthly CET from -0.2 to 2.2 C.

My table shows the increase from first half to second half, and for cases that are not leap years the increase in running CET value from 14th to 28th will be half the increase shown. That would only change by 0.2 or so, for leap years which add that one extra presumably milder day to the average. The case that looks particularly similar to 2012 (as currently predicted on model runs) would be 1841, when the first ten days averaged -2.9 (and all ten were subzero) then the rest of the month averaged 7.2 (and generally stayed above 3 C). At the end of the month, if 2012 makes the standard, I will copy the table above and show where 2012 stands in comparison. I may also take the most extreme comparison case, possibly 1-12 and 13-end, for comparison.

Edited February 17, 2012 by Roger J Smith

[muppet]

from the met office...

October 1926.

The mean CET for the 1st to 15th

was 12.41C; the mean CET for the

16th to 31st was 4.04C - a difference

of 8.37C.

[BornFromTheVoid]

1.5C to the 16th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 7.2C. Minimum today is 5.9C and maxima could reach close to 12C, so a jump to 1.9C tomorrow looks likely.

[Isolated Frost]

It's looking generally like after a cold weekend- next week should be around 7-9c in the CET zone and probably less mild to end it off. Anything between 3.5c and 4.5c most likely. Slight disappointment I guess but I think a cold March will make up for it. Parts of East Anglia and the SE away from the UHT should end sub 3c.

[TonyH]

My 2.0c was looking promising a week ago, but will now be around 2c too low!

[muppet]

I think it is up to 4.1 based on the 12z GFS run

http://www.maidenerleghweather.com/allsnowgraphs.php