February CET

[Aaron]

Hoping the current snowcover just holds out a bit longer - that way we might keep it even longer as it has done well to retain itself so far

[summer blizzard]

Hoping the current snowcover just holds out a bit longer - that way we might keep it even longer as it has done well to retain itself so far

It should be fine from Wednesday, we are forecast some pretty low minima.

[West is Best]

Hawarden is in Wales

You probably know that the CET is calculated from Stonyhurst (Lancs), Pershore (Worcs) as well as Rothamsted in Herts. As we don't get the live feed from the Lancashire plain it's standard practice to comment on the feeds in the line up the three stations towards Liverpool of Pershore, Shawbury and Hawarden. They tend to give a pretty good indication of the CET in that part of the triangle. Although the national boundary is 2 miles east of Hawarden I'm not sure anyone has informed the climate (light-hearted joke!).

We're getting relatively high maxima again today: one or two 8C's at 14h30 up that side of the triangle. On the other hand the clouds are lifting which should mean the cold night the Meto forecast can materialise.

(Self-edited to remove facetious remark.)

Edited February 6, 2012 by West is Best

[TonyH]

No I did not know that, thanks.

[damianslaw]

Some very low minima in the CET zone in the coming days should keep the CET down to very low levels. This is a colder start to Feb 2009 thanks to the 'continental dry conditions', whereas in 2009 we saw more unstable conditions meaning nightime minima were not as low.

Will be interesting to compare the CET by the 10th with that of Jan 2010 which also saw a very bitter first 10 days but then the atlantic rolled in and became mild mid month but then cooler during the second half.

[summer blizzard]

-0.1C to the 6th.

Looks as though the CET should fall again from now as many places in the CET zone are still below freezing.

[Weather-history]

Here's a list of a sub-zero first week of February that I could find

1772: -0.8

1773: -1.1

1795: -1.1

1799: -3.0

1830: -3.7

1838: -0.4

1841: -3.3

1855: -0.2

1895: -2.9

1907: -0.7

1912: -0.1

1917: -3.3

1947: -0.7

1954: -2.8

1956: -1.0

1963: -2.0

1991: -0.8

1996: -0.4

[Stu_London]

The reliable part ( ) of the GFS 06z suggests we will stay below zero until the 13th (there is a slight chance tomorrows figure maybe 0.1 or 0.2, but most likely 0.0 or -0.1 still)

Models seem to be trending towards a colder 2nd half of the month again, so whilst no guarantee that these will verify, an extremely cold month, especially by recent standards remains a possibility. A fair chance of beating 1991, beating 1986 is probably too much to ask.

[Isolated Frost]

An amazingly cold Feb to come up, slipped right under my radar!

Colder than Jan 2010? Will be very close. I'd assume after the HP-dominated cold to the 11th-12th, and then a possibly n'ly, reload e'ly and then game on for a brilliant last 10 days, anything between 0.0c and 2.0c is favourite currently.

[summer blizzard]

Here's a list of a sub-zero first week of February that I could find

1772: -0.8

1773: -1.1

1795: -1.1

1799: -3.0

1830: -3.7

1838: -0.4

1841: -3.3

1855: -0.2

1895: -2.9

1907: -0.7

1912: -0.1

1917: -3.3

1947: -0.7

1954: -2.8

1956: -1.0

1963: -2.0

1991: -0.8

1996: -0.4

Which were still sub zero to say the 15th?

I actually think we will have seen a fall today because maxima was much lower.

[TonyH]

Can't see it being amazingly cold but comfortably in the cold category likely even at this early stage.

Seems strange with it having been average over here since the weekend!

[kold weather]

Still a tough call, if the models are right and focusing on moving the upper block further west then a sub zero month is probably off the cards (due to any poassible milder intrusions) but unless the whole thing topples its likely this month will be in the very cold category, quite possibly even severe category (sub 1.5C)

[A Winter's Tale]

An amazingly cold Feb to come up, slipped right under my radar!

Colder than Jan 2010? Will be very close. I'd assume after the HP-dominated cold to the 11th-12th, and then a possibly n'ly, reload e'ly and then game on for a brilliant last 10 days, anything between 0.0c and 2.0c is favourite currently.

Sounds very interesting!

How close to the average would the winter CET be if February were to be that cold.

If the UK mean temp or the CET doesn't go below average for winter then Scotland may have a chance of a below average winter:

January was the 35th mildest (3.2C) and December was the 50th coldest (3.1C) since 1911 in Scotland. I wonder how low the February mean temperature in Scotland would need to be for a below avergae winter.

[kold weather]

It won't need to be as cold as you'd think, 2.0C would be good enough to get average 71-00, anything lower then that is below average on that scale.

So we could well still end up with a below average winter in theory if Feb stays cold.

[A Winter's Tale]

I see that to the 6th the CET was -0.1C?

With a cold night tonight and the potential for some cold weather in the next few days I would imagine that come mid month the CET will be somewhere between 0C and 1C. In that case, we'd need to have a very mild second half of the month for the CET to go above 2C.

So, bearing in mind how the CET is around freezing to the 6th and the cold weather tonight and in at least the next 5 days, how mild will the rest of February need to be for us to be at 2C or below?

[Stu_London]

I think we will be near -1C by about the 12th. All of the next few days should be below 0C comfortably in the CET zone.

We'd would then need some thing like 4.3C for the remainder of the month to get to 2C. Very possible to achieve that and even go higher towards 3C, but probably not a lot higher than that.

[A Winter's Tale]

I think we will be near -1C by about the 12th. All of the next few days should be below 0C comfortably in the CET zone.

We'd would then need some thing like 4.3C for the remainder of the month to get to 2C. Very possible to achieve that and even go higher towards 3C, but probably not a lot higher than that.

Haha! It could be if things go wrong!

High pressure being over us should keep the temperatures away from mild during the tranistional period from a Scandi Hi to a Greenie Hi. There seems to be an agreement across the models for a Greenland High. This may bring a northerly toppler next week which would keep the temperatures low for a few days with the potential for more cool-cold days later in the month which may mean that a CET of 3C is unlikely - or, if we're lucky, we may get a strong Greenie High in the righ position allowing for a cold if not very cold second half to February - perhaps resulting in a sub-zero CET!

[damianslaw]

Tomorrow will see a very cold CET value thanks to the colder easterly digging in - mins widely in the CET zone tonight below -4 degrees, and maxima tomorrow 1 degree at best I imagine.

Thursday will see another sub zero CET value and Friday very likely to do the same with maxima suppressed because of the cloud cover. So the first 10 days of the month will be comfortably below 0 degrees making it very hard for anything but an average value to be recorded by the months end. I do feel there is a good chance of us seeing the coldest Feb 1986. We are due a notably cold Feb not had one for over 20 years now. We had the long overdue cold Jan in 2010, then the long overdue very cold dec in 2010, mmm a pattern is developing here...

Edited February 7, 2012 by damianslaw

[summer blizzard]

There is of course every chance that we could see a Feb 09 scenario with a rapid rise in the second half of the month although i doubt that.

[summer blizzard]

Bang on 0C to the 7th.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Stu_London]

-5.5C minimum for the 8th

Should see us back to -0.2C by tomorrows update.

The immediate and further outlook not looking quite so cold, but FI is very much closer than usual at the moment so anything could happen basically.

[coram]

Looks like the concensus is that it will warm up from the middle of the month. The CET on the 15th will be about 0C. From there it will steadily rise to between 2 and 3C by the end of the month. A cold month, but not particularly so.

[Don]

Looks like the concensus is that it will warm up from the middle of the month. The CET on the 15th will be about 0C. From there it will steadily rise to between 2 and 3C by the end of the month. A cold month, but not particularly so.

I would say that there is a reasonable chance that February could be the coldest since 1996 which had a CET of 2.5C.

[Optimus Prime]

I don't know what concensus you're looking at but all I see is the potential for another cold spell. The cold will most probably last until the 15th at the very earliest. After which there is considerable uncertainty but I suspect the cold will never be too far away.

A wide margin for this month. Lowest, probably -1.5c and highest probably 4.0c.

[Weather-history]

Going off the current value if the rest of month were then as mild as February 1998 and the mild really kicked in for that month around this time then this month's CET would be about 6.3C

Clearly that isn't going to happen.