February CET

[johnholmes]

The Metoffice have specific words to descibe the weather depending on the season. In winter they will never use 'warm' for example, but instead mild or very mild. Yet in summer 'cold' wont be used, but cool or very cool.

There was a link somewhere to the descriptions on their site but I cant for the life of me remember where it is.

I'll post a link later

[johnholmes]

I cannot find the link on Net Weather so here is my own print out sent from UK Met-sorry its so spread out, something to do with the table its laid out in

This list is supplied by kind approval from The Met Office.

Terms used to indicate temperature – used by the Met Office

Departure from

Average degrees C

Spring=mid March- mid May

Autumn=mid Sept-mid Nov

Summer=mid May-mid Sept

Winter=mid Nov-mid March

>+7

+6 to+7

very warm

ditto

very hot

hot

Exceptionally mild

ditto

+4 to +5

Warm

Very warm

Very mild

+2 to +3

Rather warm

Warm

Mild

-1 to +1

Normal

Normal

normal

-2 to -3

Rather cold

Rather cool

Rather cold

-4 to -5

Cold

Cool

cold

Below -5

Very cold

Very cool or cold*

Very cold

* cold is used when a marked fall in temperature is expected

This does not restrict the use of terms such as ‘warm’, ‘cold’, ‘mild’, in descriptive phrases qualified, when necessary, ‘rather’ and ‘very’ such as ‘a cold easterly wind is spreading across the country’. Comparative terms such as ‘milder’, ‘colder’. ‘warmer’, ‘cooler’ may also be used as appropriate.

Edited February 21, 2012 by johnholmes

[Kentish Man]

Climate UK's Manley update shows CET: (Feb 1-20): 1.8°C (-2.6 degC)

Hadley meanwhile is on 2.4C (Feb 1 - 20).

[TonyH]

4c plus looking likely now.

[Mark22]

Hi Guys,

I need some help, I need to find out what the Min and Max temps for Preston on the 14/02/2012 and the 15/02/2012. I tried looking at the historical data on this site but I can only get Blackpool Airport as the nearest area. Any help is welcome.

Pondo

[reef]

Hi Guys,

I need some help, I need to find out what the Min and Max temps for Preston on the 14/02/2012 and the 15/02/2012. I tried looking at the historical data on this site but I can only get Blackpool Airport as the nearest area. Any help is welcome.

Pondo

Take a look on here:

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=53.750%2C-2.711&sp=I07986B2

Theres a list of local amateur weather stations in the area. A quick look in the history and you should be able to get a rough idea of the temperature in the area on those days.

[Interitus]

Hi Guys,

I need some help, I need to find out what the Min and Max temps for Preston on the 14/02/2012 and the 15/02/2012. I tried looking at the historical data on this site but I can only get Blackpool Airport as the nearest area. Any help is welcome.

Pondo

From hourly data for Preston Moor Park -

14/02

min 2.2

max 7.4

Didn't get data for 15/02, sorry.

[Gael_Force]

From hourly data for Preston Moor Park -

14/02

min 2.2

max 7.4

Didn't get data for 15/02, sorry.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ILANCASH70&month=2&day=15&year=2012

15/2 for Fulwood, Preston.

[Interitus]

http://www.wundergro...ay=15&year=2012

15/2 for Fulwood, Preston.

Cheers, I posted the Moor Park value as it is an official Met Office station - he should be able to compare the two to get a reasonable estimate.

[Mark22]

Thanks guys. That was a massive help.

[The PIT]

Back to rapid rises here again after a pause this weekend. I'm on 2.7C now up from 2.3c yesterday.

[BornFromTheVoid]

2.6C to the 21st

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 7.3C. Minimum today is 8.0C while maxima will probably be a little over 10C, so we'll probably be around 2.9C tomorrow.

After that, with the 12z GFS, the CET will be at

3.3C to the 23rd (12.7)

3.7C to the 24th (12.0)

3.9C to the 25th (8.1)

4.0C to the 26th (7.3)

4.3C to the 27th (12.0)

4.6C to the 28th (12.3)

4.7C to the 29th (8.9)

Could end up very close to the 1981-2010 average after corrections.

[Lettucing Gutted]

^{Yet another above average month.}

[damianslaw]

Looks like a sub 4 degree CET is becoming increasingly less likely, with downward corrections something in between 4-4.5 degrees probably most likely so a very average CET despite the sub zero first half. It will go down as a month of two halves very much like what happened in 2009 when the cold first half was cancelled out by the very mild second half.

Alos looks like being a very dry Feb for many parts of england and wales (so here mind!) - Feb can be a very dry month and the driest of the year in some places something which still surprises some people.

[Don]

Looks like a sub 4 degree CET is becoming increasingly less likely, with downward corrections something in between 4-4.5 degrees probably most likely so a very average CET despite the sub zero first half. It will go down as a month of two halves very much like what happened in 2009 when the cold first half was cancelled out by the very mild second half.

Alos looks like being a very dry Feb for many parts of england and wales (so here mind!) - Feb can be a very dry month and the driest of the year in some places something which still surprises some people.

I'm going to be too low yet again with my CET guess, this time by around 1C. I think Feb 2012 will turn an overall CET value very close to that of 2009 (4.1C), although if anything it will probably be slightly higher. Certainly wasn't expecting this two weeks ago!

[Scorcher]

Could be a huge rise after today- if anything GFS may be underestimating the mildness with most places staying in or close to double figures overnight. After 10 days I was seriously concerned about my estimate of 5.0C but I might not be too far off now after all.

[North-Easterly Blast]

This February could be a record breaking month for the largest increase in CET from the first half to the second half. The largest increase ever occurred in Feb 1799, where the second half was 7.8*C warmer than the first half. The first half of that month came in at -1.1, and the second half at 6.7. In winter 2010-11 we saw the most pear shaped winter on record, so if this February turns into the largest increase ever from the first to the second half, then the most pear shaped February on record will have occurred in the winter following on from the most pear shaped winter season on record.

Also another possible record is that Feb 2012 could turn out to record the warmest second half of February since before 1772. The warmest second half of February ever so far was in 1926, which saw a CET of 8.4*C.

[Scorcher]

I'd imagine today will be close to a record for a February daily CET value as well, have to wait and see.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I'd imagine today will be close to a record for a February daily CET value as well, have to wait and see.

Hadley has the minimum down as 8.6, and the maxima I would suspect should be around 15.5. It is probable that today will come out with a daily CET over 12*C, but I doubt that it will reach the warmest CET day ever in February, which was 12.9 on Feb 4th 2004.

[Scorcher]

Hadley has the minimum down as 8.6, and the maxima I would suspect should be around 15.5. It is probable that today will come out with a daily CET over 12*C, but I doubt that it will reach the warmest CET day ever in February, which was 12.9 on Feb 4th 2004.

Hmm ok I was expecting the minimum to be higher than that, can't see it happening then. That's amazing that the record CET day occurred at the beginning of the month in 2004.

[North-Easterly Blast]

We have come close to average for the CET in February four times in the last ten years, but only on one occasion recorded a colder than average February, in 2010. Three of the occasions we have come close to average for the CET were down to bad luck that we didn't record a colder month.

Feb 2005 was dominated by northerlies and easterlies persistently after the 12th, and saw some wonderful easterly synoptics from the 20th onwards, later backing northerly, yet the synoptics failed to bring anything particularly cold, and the average for the last nine days was 1.5. With the coldest possible synoptic setup, I would have expected a well sub zero last nine days, but it wasn't. Given the synoptics of Feb 2005, it was a big let down that the month recorded a CET that was still a shade above average, when the synoptics ought to have produced a much colder month.

Feb 2006 again saw an easterly setup at the same stage in the month as 2005, but this was even less potent than the Feb 2005 easterly, and the CET was over 3*C in this nine day spell, and some days in that spell even failed to come in below average. These late Feb 2006 synoptics should have produced colder temperatures than they did; as such it was a let down that the CET for that month was still close to the older 1961-90 and 1951-80 averages, when the synoptics later in the month ought to have been cold enough to bring the month's CET down to less than 3 degrees.

Feb 2009 saw a cold snowy spell in the first half, yet went belly up in mid-month and gave way to a very mild second half with the overall result that the month's CET was in the end close to the average, or even slightly above the older sets of averages.

Now Feb 2012 has gone the same way as Feb 2009, and even could well exceed the pear shapedness of Feb 2009, and will again fail to bring in a colder than average month, by the older 1961-90 and 1951-80 standards at least.

What does it take to get a colder than average February;we managed it in 2010, but how rare was that?

[cheeky_monkey]

cold Februaries were quite common in the 60s 70s and early to mid 80s..since then apart from 1991..there hasnt been a very cold February..recently the cold January bogey has been broken by Jan 2010..and December has never really strayed from the path.

[North-Easterly Blast]

cold Februaries were quite common in the 60s 70s and early to mid 80s..since then apart from 1991..there hasnt been a very cold February..recently the cold January bogey has been broken by Jan 2010..and December has never really strayed from the path.

Yes it is certainly true that the mildness in the 1990s and 2000s winters was loaded in January and February whereas December often tended to be close to the long term average. In fact in the last 20 years, December has been at least 1*C below the long term average (by 1961-90 / 1951-80 standards) on seven occasions. Whereas in the last 25 years, January has only been at least 0.5*C below average on five occasions, and 1*C or more below average on two occasions. Also in the last 25 years, February has been 0.5*C below average on only four occasions, and 1*C or more below average on three occasions.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

settled ish first half, but not cold like 14-17 Jan, Atlantic dominated 2nd half, 5.1C

something like 2.0C first half, 7.1C 2nd half

22nd Jan, not looking far out I dont think, maybe too low though 5.1C, unusual for me to predict winter CET's too low

[Nigerian Prince]

15.0c thats the maximum here at Battersea,London its now 12.3C, and falling, under clear skies of course, so the minimum should be lower tonight,yes, quite an amazing end to February, its been a long time since we had a February that was quite below average, a regular occurance, before 1987, in the years before that, you could almost guarantee( even in the milder years )an Easterly developing in the second week of February. January as not change much in nature, its as got milder, but by not a great ammount, it was nearly always a mild month in the past. December as actually got colder in general, strangly enough, many Decembers in the 1980s were very mild, 1981 being the main exception to this. One thing is for sure,since September the sequence of mild of month dominated by southerly, westerly, winds is incredible, I can not remember seeing a period like it, since September high pressure as stayed to the South West, South and Southeast with little or no break, I know that many places in the South and South East, and Central England had 2 weeks of Easterly winds end of January, February, but for many in the Southwest, Ireland, and Western Scotland, there as been little or no break from this dominant weather pattern.