Wales (Cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 2)

[J10]

GFS 06z today is being very generous - 18 hours potentially of snow for South/Mid Wales Sunday and Monday - and now with a slight twist more snow progged for Thursday also

If the GFS 00z comes off for towards the end of the week we will be looking at a couple of feet of snow all over Wales - we will just grind to a halt folks - fill up the larders - this could get very nasty!

As much as I'd like you to be right there may be a tinsy bit of ramping going on there.

[Gord]

I think that's the problem...the snow might sit rather than come.

You're likely to have many of us West Midlanders visiting your thread tomorrow...what happens to you may us clues about what could happen here. So keep us updated! While everyone seems to be looking east for the cold...we're all looking west for snow over our side of the country!

[DeepSnow]

Aha nice to see im not covered by the meto weather watch... leaves me a bit less optimistic of me seeing any snow! Im always more marginal anyway. Good luck to those of you that do get some snow, enjoy it while you have it

[ourson]

I think that's the problem...the snow might sit rather than come.

You're likely to have many of us West Midlanders visiting your thread tomorrow...what happens to you may us clues about what could happen here. So keep us updated! While everyone seems to be looking east for the cold...we're all looking west for snow over our side of the country!

Not sure we want to share at the moment. If we decide that 6 foot drifts and 24 hours of total whiteout get to be too much, we'll consider sending it over Offa's dyke (if you are prepared to pay Welsh members of Netweather a £1.2 million bonus, of course).

[andymusic]

BBC NEWS 24 - just backed up the METO - snow snow and more snow - 12 midday tomoz - (maybe even late morning) - and quote "as the frontal rain sleet and snow turns heavier - it will become more and more as snow EVEN AT LOWER LEVELS!" - so everyone tomoz and into Monday looks like getting there share here in Wales!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ourson]

Aha nice to see im not covered by the meto weather watch... leaves me a bit less optimistic of me seeing any snow! Im always more marginal anyway. Good luck to those of you that do get some snow, enjoy it while you have it

Don't lose faith DS. The M4 is not a weather sheild! There is no doubt that things will firm up as we get closer to the event, and it could easily upgrade or downgrade (sorry everyone). Detail is not decided 100% yet. Snow will fall in Wales, and plenty of it. Where, when and how much will be a case of crossing your fingers and looking out of the window.

[Gavla]

So is this event likely to start as rain to snow or snow straight away? What totals are we likely to see by monday. The meto seem sketchy as too depths?

[Bobby]

Looking very interesting for us, 24+ hours of snow heavy at times for some if current NAE is correct. I'd say the current favoured hotspots are high ground in the Valleys and Mid Wales, quite a few inches to be expected there I think. Then 06z GFS shows a second epic battleground event next week.

Places further East could see snow right from the start with it rain/sleet turning to snow further West.

[Scarlet_Snow]

Wow....Left this thread a few days ago thinking another false dawn was on the cards and I log on this morning and I see all this! Andy going crazy - that must mean only one thing!

[Cymro]

Mae brwdfrydedd Andy'n heintus ond diawch paid a gosod y cart o flaen y ceffyl nawr, gadewch i ni weld beth sydd yn digwydd.

Andy's ramping is contagious but heavens let's not but the cart before the horse now, let us see what happens.

[Scarlet_Snow]

Mae brwdfrydedd Andy'n heintus ond diawch paid a gosod y cart o flaen y ceffyl nawr, gadewch i ni weld beth sydd yn digwydd.

Andy's ramping is contagious but heavens let's not but the cart before the horse now, let us see what happens.

ahhh lighten up, let them ramp may be our best chance all winter! and by the looks of it some people are going to get something in the next week or so anyway!

[Cymro]

ahhh lighten up, let them ramp may be our best chance all winter! and by the looks of it some people are going to get something in the next week or so anyway!

It's not being miserable or not but for example the front could stall further west and barely hit most of Wales or could make its way in too rapidly meaning rain for Western Wales, it's unlikely but its still a possibility, I'm afraid people's hopes will all be a bit to high, to talk of feets worth of snow is a bit much. And I know Andy get's it bad I live in a similar type of area over 300m above sea level with the peak behind me reaching 600meters, things can get bad but even here it has to be exceptional for feets worth of snow, i.e December 2010.

[Cwmbran Eira]

hi cwmbran eira im not far from you,actually be there shopping today stocking up,are we really going to get snow so excited! I work in a primary school,absolutely luv it when i get a txt to say school is closed, do you think there will be enough snow to close school?

Just a few mountains away. It's looking good. Overnight snow is what you want. Allows a good covering on the road.

I'm on hols Monday & Tuesday. Mixed feelings about that really.Could I have had a day off anyway? At least I won't have to pretend to work from home this time.

Edited January 28, 2012 by Cwmbran Eira

[Cwmbran Eira]

Just been for a walk. What a stunning day. A gentle east wind certainly has a chill to it

[Bobby]

ECM has a snowfest for Wales.

Still some snow for the south 48 hours later...

Edited January 28, 2012 by Barb-

[Buzz]

Wow....Left this thread a few days ago thinking another false dawn was on the cards and I log on this morning and I see all this! Andy going crazy - that must mean only one thing!

Well Andy is guaranteed snow (if it gets that far and doesn't get pushed back west) as he's in a prime position.

Sounds like he's stocked up and ready for any snowy onslaught.

[nwales]

I calculate that if the Netweather forecast for my postcode were correct, I'd finish the week with about 50cm of snow! Unlikely... but a nice thought

[Buzz]

So is this event likely to start as rain to snow or snow straight away? What totals are we likely to see by monday. The meto seem sketchy as too depths?

Depends on your location - as you're in Swansea I would guess it would start as rain then maybe turn to snow late Sunday and overnight. The more inland you are and the higher up the better chances of it starting as snow.

So hard to say for sure though as things could of course change. If we're really unlucky the front may push right through west to east and if the wind direction isn't favourable (ie the cold air feed is cut off) any snow MAY turn back to rain. There's a few possibilities right now, but it does look like SOME in Wales will see snow. Best for us is if the front stalls or if it moves south south eastwards.

[J10]

Depends on your location - as you're in Swansea I would guess it would start as rain then maybe turn to snow late Sunday and overnight. The more inland you are and the higher up the better chances of it starting as snow.

So hard to say for sure though as things could of course change. If we're really unlucky the front may push right through west to east and if the wind direction isn't favourable (ie the cold air feed is cut off) any snow MAY turn back to rain. There's a few possibilities right now, but it does look like SOME in Wales will see snow. Best for us is if the front stalls or if it moves south south eastwards.

All based on things as they currently stand, which can chancge widely.

I think altitude could make a difference as you have alluded to, at low ground near the coast, snow will be limited, but at 100m in Swansea, that could make the difference between rain/sleet/snow. Altitude in the valleys makes things much easier though for snow.

Slight changes can make things better or much worse.

[Gavla]

So above 100m should suffice?, but in the valleys the ingredients are better? I so hope im not let down now, in the night surely most ppn would be of snow?

[Snowmadsam]

Woo i am exactly 100m barb where did ypu get that ecm chart from?

[J10]

In very basic terms, Western areas look like they will see the most precipitation, possibly 20mm, with 10mm further east. However it is likely to be colder further east. Added to this it is always colder in the valleys and at altitude, so the best chance will be here.

Current best guess for you - based on current models, so may change - Rain to start, turning to snow for Sunday evening and overnight, possibly reverting back to sleet later.

WunderMap Interactive Radar & Weather Stations : Weather Underground

Select ECM on right hand side, select snowfall on zoom in Wales and slide the time across.

[WalsallWeather]

Is this due for tonight/tomorrow morning or tomorrow (Sunday) night into Monday morning?

Working tomorrow and Monday as long as we don't get too much snow. I don't expect loads here in Pontyberem, near Llanelli but it doesn't take much to stop things moving, especially as I live on the top of quite a steep hill!

Anyway an exciting few days ahead by the looks of things!

[keithlucky]

Is this due for tonight/tomorrow morning or tomorrow (Sunday) night into Monday morning?

Working tomorrow and Monday as long as we don't get too much snow. I don't expect loads here in Pontyberem, near Llanelli but it doesn't take much to stop things moving, especially as I live on the top of quite a steep hill!

Anyway an exciting few days ahead by the looks of things!

Hopefully as late as possible to prove that HP is holding it back we dont want the front crossing the border because we will start to drag in milder air.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Some differences in the models now with how far east that front gets, the GFS is showing it getting further east while the NAE at the moment holds it out further west.

NAE & GFS 06z precipitation charts for same time:

http://expert-images...012921_2806.gif < NAE

http://cdn.nwstatic....6/39/ukprec.png < GFS

UKMO 06z @ 1900hrs (t+42) tomorrow:

http://www.meteociel...2-594.GIF?28-06

As you can see also further east.

Now look to the Met Office warnings guidence:

http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=2

You will see they have now highlighted the risk of snowfall for western parts of England also which further supports the eastward progression of the front.

The further east the front gets the more marginal it will become for those in W/SW Wales and allong southern coastlines. Although for central and east Wales dew points seem to remain low enough to support precipitation falling as snow so a solid chance for these areas in my opinion:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs368.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs398.gif