Wales (Cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 2)

[soupsurfer7]

Check out the forecast video for Wales here: http://www.itv.com/wales/weather/

In summary : patchy light rain tomorrow morning for most, then turning to snow on high ground and lower levels away from coast later in the day and through sun night. He also mentions the front hanging around on Tuesday giving a wintry mix.

Also says the yellow warning is likely to be increased to an amber warning.

Edited January 28, 2012 by soupsurfer7

[TheWeatherGirl]

Is it worth breaking out the sledge that i impulse bought for my little boy in asda just before christmas last time they promised us snow? Ive kind of regretted it since as it felt like Id jinxed the winter! I want a serious snow in like we had in December 2010. C ouldnt get out of our street for a week!

[Phil Barkin]

Latest ECM front does not appear to have progressed very far east by monday lunchtime

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm481.gif

Edited January 28, 2012 by Snowmadsam

[ourson]

Is it worth breaking out the sledge that i impulse bought for my little boy in asda just before christmas last time they promised us snow? Ive kind of regretted it since as it felt like Id jinxed the winter! I want a serious snow in like we had in December 2010. C ouldnt get out of our street for a week!

So it's YOU that jinxed the weather!! Only joking. Can't think of anywhere better to do some extreme sledging than Caerffili Mountain. I'd forget the little boy and get on it yourself personally.

[Snowmadsam]

right here's my opinion on things...

Wales will get more snow than all models maps show or

East will get snow and west rain

West will get snow and east rain or sleet

the rain comes at a later time which allows more cold air form the black and we get a snowfest

or the rain misses us because the block is to strong

[mickeyflyn]

Ah well looks like rain and maybe sleet for coastal areas of wales according to the bbc weather forecast .brecon beacons, Cambrian mts snowdonia .rain for the rest of us .

[whiskers]

WHAT! where did u get that from! r u avin a laugh!

[mickeyflyn]

latest bbc forecast on bbc news 24

WHAT! where did u get that from! r u avin a laugh!

check out bbc news 24 forecast from darren bett

[worldairgroup]

yes bbc forecasts are quite disappointing, along with channel 4 news forecast, just showing rain for most of Wales.

[Gavla]

Gotta say im really confused as to whats going to happen lol. Personally i think a slushy mess unless you are lucky enough to be living in the valleys or the beacons.

[ourson]

latest bbc forecast on bbc news 24

check out bbc news 24 forecast from darren bett

News 24 and the madmodel thread are very much IMBY - if it's not the south east of england it's not particularly important.

Where's Derek Brocolli when you need him??

Derek - we love you and your ocassional "Nos da"

Every silver lining has a cloud, or is it the other way round?

Metcheck always tend to overcook things, so check it out and cheer up peeps.

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/today.asp?zipcode=CF5

Edited January 28, 2012 by ourson

[DeepSnow]

I will say one thing re-the bbc weather forecast, don't always take it at face value when it comes to predicting snow, esp in set ups like this when a small change on the day of the event can make the biggest of differences! I remember a few years back the bbc predicted rain for here and to start with it did rain. However within 15-20mins the rain turned to snow and despite the ground being soaked with puddles, we ended up with a few inches! Its so hard to get these set ups exactly right, things can and most likely will change at the last second and that will make all the difference! The graphics on the bbc weather are more generalised, not what will necessarily happen.

Anyway for some reason i feel a little confident i will see some snow now, as long as the front doesn't push too far east and let the mild air get over us. I just hope the block will be strong enough to stall the front over us and then it eventually slip away south, allowing the cold air to stay over us and keep the snow from melting too much!

Edited January 28, 2012 by DeepSnow

[mickeyflyn]

News 24 and the madmodel thread are very much IMBY - if it's not the south east of england it's not particularly important.

Where's Derek Brocolli when you need him??

Derek - we love you and your ocassional "Nos da"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ have a butcher here and tell me what you think !!

[Jackfrost]

Having already seen snow falling three times this winter (hardly a record in itself) while most have had none, I suppose I shouldn't be too disappointed knowing that I'm unlikely to get too much snow here in Nelson.

For any area where it starts and ends as snow (ie, Hirwaun over to Ebbw Vale and The Beacons) it could be a decent event but it'll be an interesting 48-72 hours regardless of where you are in South Wales.

Edited January 28, 2012 by jackfrost

[Bobby]

Cor blimey, -17 upper air into Wales on ECM +168... has that ever happened before? Makes last winter's cold spell look like a little nip in the air. Temperatures in the day would struggle to get above -5-7c, potentially historic levels of cold.

GFS would be about the same too.

[soupsurfer7]

It's important not to take the BBC graphics too literally, they do often present rain when it's snow and vice versa. Also, for the people who miss out on this chance, we have a cold easterly set up that will have to be broken down in a similar set up at some point, providing another battleground event in the future.

[Bobby]

Having already seen snow falling three times this winter (hardly a record in itself) while most have had none, I suppose I shouldn't be too disappointed knowing that I'm unlikely to get too much snow here in Nelson.

For any area where it starts and ends as snow (ie, Hirwaun over to Ebbw Vale and The Beacons) it could be a decent event but it'll be an interesting 48-72 hours regardless of where you are in South Wales.

If you're at 200m in Caerphilly I think you have a good chance of seeing decent snowfall. The high res NMM which I think is best in these situations shows snow even down to lower levels in Cardiff/Newport, probably snow all the way with a bit of altitude. Still plenty of uncertainty though.

[whiskers]

i live in blackwood does anybody know how far asl i am?

[ourson]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ have a butcher here and tell me what you think !!

Blah blah blah. Saw it earlier, and I think what I always think with these automatically created forecasts. The BBC and METO have said this and that over the last couple of years, and rain rain rain in Cardiff. I look out of the window and see snow snow snow. That's what I'll do tomorrow night into monday morning - look out of the window.

Edited January 28, 2012 by ourson

[worldairgroup]

i live in blackwood does anybody know how far asl i am?

1100 feet approx, i think

[soupsurfer7]

i live in blackwood does anybody know how far asl i am?

Type your postcode into google maps, then select 'terrain' in the upper right hand control box. Look for the contor lines they should tell you

[Buzz]

Type your postcode into google maps, then select 'terrain' in the upper right hand control box. Look for the contor lines they should tell you

Or install Google Earth and mouse over your location - the elevation will be displayed at the bottom of the window.

[nwales]

Looks like some very light precipitation is starting to turn up on the western fringes of Wales. Exciting! -1c here

[whiskers]

thanks i will try it now,just need to know if im getting snow!

[Bobby]

Met Office site has snow for me all the waay from Sunday afternoon til Monday night

Those of us in the valleys could be in luck.