Wales (Cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 2)

[J10]

Another totally nuts 12z GFS run for Wales- maybe drier than the 06z, but colder-

Probably won't be that cold, but just an indication of the possible extremes of the forth-coming spell if it comes off...

I can't see temps hitting -20c in Wales!!!

Great run though, any snow that lasts through Monday may well stay for quite a while.

[whiskers]

when wll met office upgade their warnings if they think its gonna be bad?

[J10]

Thanks for the welcome,all eyes to the radar now for you guys in Wales you need that front over ireland to move at a snails pace, the faster it moved the better for us in the the south east of England. As I said earlier if it gets further than Bristol I will be amazed.

Intersting FAX chart for Wednesday with no sign that the atlantic will win this one

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

That is yesterdays chart.

[benb]

Lol it better haha! Feeling more confident now that I will see snow tomorrow hopefully all the way through!

I got a £10 bet on it!

It was 14/1 last night for the Wales' lowest temp record to go before April 30th 2012, with William Hill...

Perhaps the days are a little long to break the record, but if the exceptional synoptics come off, perhaps we'd be in with a chance. By the end of next week, over Wales, there may well be:

1) Significant, established snow cover

2) 850s lower than -10c

3) A slack airflow, reducing mixing

4) Still pretty long nights

Any chance?

It did go below -20c on a few occasions Dec 2010? Could conditions be more favourable next week?

Edited January 28, 2012 by benb

[Gavla]

Are we still looking good after the latest models, i read on another forum that this is only going to be snow above 250m ? Is there any truth in this dont fancy a slushy mess

[J10]

Are we still looking good after the latest models, i read on another forum that this is only going to be snow above 250m ? Is therany truth in this dont fancy a slushy mess

Perhaps you should read this forum first,

NAE below,

GFS suggesting a similar setup, slightly underdoing snow potential, as it is lower res, GFS very promising for an extreme cold event, UKMO not as good at T+144, although will prob not look as bad on WZ.

NAE 12Hz and slight upgrades for tomorrow, with more pink in the Chart, however things do get more marginal again on Monday.

http://expert-images...012918_2812.gif 6pm tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013000_2812.gif midnight tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 6am Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 12 noon Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6pm tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif midnight tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6am tomorrow (06Hz run)

Dewpoints

http://expert-images...012918_2812.gif 6pm tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013000_2812.gif midnight tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 6am Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6pm tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...013000_2806.gif midnight tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...013006_2806.gif 6am tomorrow (06Hz run)

Dewpoints are generally close to freezing, and fall overnight, before rising again into Monday.

So in summary IMO - again based on the models and likely to change - Valleys likely to see snow throughout

Rain turning to snow elsewhere, esp away from low ground on coast, but perhaps reverting back to sleet as Monday progresses. Precipitation amounts over 25mm in Pembrokshire, maybe 15-20mm in SE Wales valleys, 0-2mm in NE Wales.

-----------------------------

Here's a question would if there was a choice between heavy snow tomorrow or a prolonged cold spell, what would you go for.

[Gavla]

I did read that first, just hate being dissapointed thats all. Hearing things like sweet spot and only above 250m dampens my hopes. A shift either way could mean being on the right or wrong side of marginal. I know with our climate its not easy and cant be set in stone but that doesnt stop me wishing that it could be.

[benb]

That precipitation out west, over the Irish Sea, has hardly moved any further east in the last three hours, as it runs into the block.

Good I guess, in a way, as the slower it moves the more precipitation will fall over any one point.

Arriving at the end of the night will also give temps a chance to drop away before the precipitation arrives.

Widely 1-3c across mid-Wales currently, warmer along the coast-

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Edited January 28, 2012 by benb

[Bobby]

There's still a fair bit of uncertainty on the track of the front looking at the models and where the snow will be too, some take it east into the Midlands while others keep most of it for W Wales. The latest NMM shows an all snow event for the valleys and Mid Wales and I think these places are the hotspots, especially above say 200m where potentially significant falls might occur. But it may come down to nowcasting in the end.

NMM, snow down even to Cardiff/Newport levels....

Edited January 28, 2012 by Barb-

[Bobby]

NMM, snow down even to Cardiff/Newport levels....

[Gavla]

Just seen weather on bbc news, snow only accumulating over the valleys and beacons rain/sleet/snow mix elsewhere.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just seen weather on bbc news, snow only accumulating over the valleys and beacons rain/sleet/snow mix elsewhere.

Yep as i expected really, haven't had one flake here this winter lol - nevermind.

[mikeocarroll]

-1.0c here already, now where's that precipitation

[soupsurfer7]

Hmm... I do remember in past years the BBC weather graphics have exaggerated the rain/snow cut off point from the coasts as too far inland, and in reality the boundary has been much closer to the coasts than made out.

[nwales]

Just dipped below freezing, -0.1c after a max of 3.6c. Fingers crossed!!

[Gavla]

Yep as i expected really, haven't had one flake here this winter lol - nevermind.

same, however i did see some sleety flakes here thursday, should have sung and danced in that and taken some pictures lol.

[Buzz]

In many respects this is a 'nowcasting' situation. The higher you are and the further away from coasts the better, but given that we don't even know the eastwards extent of the front for certain, it's all pretty up in the air (literally!).

[Jayfromcardiff]

same, however i did see some sleety flakes here thursday, should have sung and danced in that and taken some pictures lol.

Lol, I'd just look outside mate tomorrow night and monday, best thing to do rather than look at models and listen to BBC imo.

[Scarlet_Snow]

Hmm so by the looks of it sunday into monday will be quite marginal in regards to coastal area's seeing much snow falling? I'll take anything at this stage, not seen a proper snowflake here since 2010! Obviously got some time to go yet but are there any scenarios where we could get some snow nailed on at lower levels?

[swales]

Hmm so by the looks of it sunday into monday will be quite marginal in regards to coastal area's seeing much snow falling? I'll take anything at this stage, not seen a proper snowflake here since 2010! Obviously got some time to go yet but are there any scenarios where we could get some snow nailed on at lower levels?

Hey there again. I'm not confident that we'll definitely see setting snow but tomorrow is definitely our best chance so far. I've also noticed that going in to Monday is looking more marginal??

Edited January 28, 2012 by shaunwales

[Scarlet_Snow]

Hey there again. I'm not confident that we'll definitely see setting snow but this tomorrow is definitely our best chance. I've also noticed that going in to Monday is looking more marginal??

I was optimistic earlier but the more I've looked at it the more I have my doubts, maybe I've just turned into a pessimist haha

[J10]

Just seen the BBC weather for myself, and there was a lot of uncertainty, they really are not sure atm, but then neither are we.

Shaun my best guess is that away from the Beacons - it is a rain to snow to sleet event, turning ever so slightly less cold on Monday but that is a very broad brush statement.

So for areas away from the beacons we would the eastern progress to stall a bit, firstly as any precip falling before Sunday evening is unlikely to stick, and also then stopping it turning slightly less cold on the Monday.

[swales]

I was optimistic earlier but the more I've looked at it the more I have my doubts, maybe I've just turned into a pessimist haha

Haha... well the latest high res NMM is showing rain on the Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire coasts for tomorrow so pfft. If it's going to snow then bloody snow... I don't want to risk going in to work on slushy soaking frozen roads.

Edited January 28, 2012 by shaunwales

[Bobby]

The high resolution NMM has ~20cm of snow for the valleys Sunday and Monday, might be more coming in after that too :o

It suggests for it'll all be snow too, especially higher up. It's also good news that it should be snow initially and it should be falling onto cold dry ground so that should increase the chances of it settling and accumulating.

Edited January 28, 2012 by Barb-

[Bobby]

And for high ground especially it would be all snow too.