Wales (Cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 2)

[CRACKPOT]

1100 feet approx, i think

I disagree - I would have thought Blackwood is between 800 & 875 feet - diverse town with quite a height from the lower town to the upper section.

I am looking forward to a good chance of snow tomorrow and then as the cold gets entrenched looking for troughs and possible streamers to occur more particularly after midweek. Loving this at the moment - my type of weather!

JK

Edited January 28, 2012 by CRACKPOT

[Snowmadsam]

Front stalled over ireland?

[Phil Barkin]

Front stalled over ireland?

It does appear to be,little movement since 2 this afternoon

[nwales]

Front stalled over ireland?

I think it's still on the move, just very slow. Looks like if it eventually makes it across the Irish Sea there won't be much for north Wales though

[welshwizard]

i live in blackwood does anybody know how far asl i am?

just done it on google maps and its 210m asl on the comprehensive school roof lol.

[Snowmadsam]

just done it on google maps and its 210m asl on the comprehensive school roof lol.

:lol:

[A Winter's Tale]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html - The front seems to have stalled over Ireland. Hopefully it will move over to Wales but I think it's important to point out that the Scandi Hi is already working efficently. It should end up over Wales but if it doesn't then this would indicate that the block, easterly flow and stalling fronts are further west than initially preditced (AGAIN)!

[J10]

Interesting as well that the NMM 12Hz has the precipitation much further west than the 06Hz tomorrow with much less rainfall totals by 6pm tomorrow esp for eastern parts of Wales.

However the rian is currently further east than the models suggest.

So conflicting messages.

[Snowmadsam]

Interesting as well that the NMM 12Hz has the precipitation much further west than the 06Hz tomorrow with much less rainfall totals by 6pm tomorrow esp for eastern parts of Wales.

However the rian is currently further east than the models suggest.

So conflicting messages.

If it stays stalled for a while though then the NMM would be right?

[welshwizard]

i just been looking on rain radar,and the rain/snow over ireland seems to be pushing south and not across the irish sea. is this what we are supposed to have tomor? if so do you guys think that is going to make it across the irish sea? i myself dont like the look ov it,it seems to be going south and cant see that pushing all the way across to cover all ov wales. maybe south west wales but as iv said before im not very good at this weather lark. whats your thoughts guys? have a look on rain radar.

[keithlucky]

Yes Jackone the rainfall charts have got medium rain for south and west Wales light rain for east Wales interesting the front pulls away westwards Monday but another Front pushes back over Wales from the west Tuesday.

Edited January 28, 2012 by keithlucky

[A Winter's Tale]

i just been looking on rain radar,and the rain/snow over ireland seems to be pushing south and not across the irish sea. is this what we are supposed to have tomor? if so do you guys think that is going to make it across the irish sea? i myself dont like the look ov it,it seems to be going south and cant see that pushing all the way across to cover all ov wales. maybe south west wales but as iv said before im not very good at this weather lark. whats your thoughts guys? have a look on rain radar.

I really can't tell if it will make it but I do hope it will. But if it doesn't then this is a good sign for the easterly next week with the block working well and everything being a bit further west. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html If you look at the north sea you can see that an easterly air flow is present there. If we're very lucky, this element of everything being a bit further west could work well for the easterly between Sunday and Tuesday with the more direct and stong flow being further west across the UK but this is hopecasting.

[WalsallWeather]

So has yesterdays expectation and ramping now turned more into hope?! Goes to show what a difference of a few hours models makes

[Jase]

Evening all, does anyone know if we are likley to get any (even a bit of the white stuff ) near me just out side borth!!!

[kold weather]

Models still look fairly good for snow, especially with areas with any height to them. I'd suggest a rather messy set-up is likely (sorta reminds me in some ways of what we had in December 11) with a real mix below 200M, though this time the cold air WILL undercut at some point and its quite possible that there the front will be decaying by that point. Models tend to rather struggle in these set-ups.

Still I'd be confident if I was above 200M in W/C Wales of seeing white conditions by say 21z Sunday.

[ourson]

Precip seems to be heading south (and south east geographically). Having bad thoughts. Cheer me up someone.

[Gavla]

Me as well havnt even got rain to look forward to now. I give up

[welshwizard]

Me as well havnt even got rain to look forward to now. I give up

that made me laugh fair play.

[Phil Barkin]

Precip seems to be heading south (and south east geographically). Having bad thoughts. Cheer me up someone.

We are only seeing a little of the front at the moment and if the approach is from the north west (i.e.heading SE) then the coatal areas of Wales are much more likely to see snow. As I said earlier,much as I would like it to I cant see the front getting any further than Bristol before it gets pushed back

Edited January 28, 2012 by Phil Barkin

[ourson]

We are only seeing a little of the front at the moment and if the approach is from the north west (i.e.heading SE) then the coatal areas of Wales are much more likely to see snow. As I said earlier,much as I would like it to I cant see the front getting any further than Bristol before it gets pushed back

Bristol?? I'm not convinced it's going to get past Boncath at the moment.

[WalsallWeather]

Derek Brockway (The Welsh weatherman!) on his Twitter: Met Office forecaster 9:10pm: "Snow amounts are the main uncertainty. Biggest snow totals in 48 hours are in South East Wales."

Enjoy!

Edited January 28, 2012 by CarmarthenshireWeather

[J10]

Models still look fairly good for snow, especially with areas with any height to them. I'd suggest a rather messy set-up is likely (sorta reminds me in some ways of what we had in December 11) with a real mix below 200M, though this time the cold air WILL undercut at some point and its quite possible that there the front will be decaying by that point. Models tend to rather struggle in these set-ups.

Still I'd be confident if I was above 200M in W/C Wales of seeing white conditions by say 21z Sunday.

I think that is being a bit negative, unless you are talking about lying snow, but I still think there would be lying snow at levels lower than that esp. inland.

----------------------

But I don't understand as to the negativity about the progression of the front it is still further east than was currently forecasted.

[welshwizard]

i love some of the posts on here tonight,having a few beers and laughing at the panic in some peoples posts lol. everyone is desperate for snow,just believe guys fingers crossed.

[WalsallWeather]

i love some of the posts on here tonight,having a few beers and laughing at the panic in some peoples posts lol. everyone is desperate for snow,just believe guys fingers crossed.

Happens all the time! A slight shift and it's panic stations

[Buzz]

Hold your horses folks, the precipitation isn't even due into the west of Wales until tomorrow morning. Take a look at this:

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

Use the slider bar/arrows to step through the time period 6 hours at a time.