Wales (Cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 2)

[Gavla]

Best too be prepared for downgrades then. If its too good to be true, its because it is

[Ryan Macdonald]

i live in blackwood,in the valleys,i hope we get a shed load of snow,just hope it doesnt start off as rain and then nothing is able to stick! how much snow we talking? gd few inches or a lil dusting. i love it when theres chaos!!

[WalsallWeather]

Best too be prepared for downgrades then. If its too good to be true, its because it is

Yep, as what happens so many times.. The closer we get and more excited people get.. the downgrades begin!

[Buzz]

i live in blackwood,in the valleys,i hope we get a shed load of snow,just hope it doesnt start off as rain and then nothing is able to stick! how much snow we talking? gd few inches or a lil dusting. i love it when theres chaos!!

Snow will still stick/pitch/settle if the surface temp is cold enough, ie a wet surface won't cause a problem if the surface temp is low enough.

[Wynn D Woo]

If the snow is heavy enough then it can over come wet ground, I remember in feb 2007, in Pontyclun, we had a couple of hours of sleety/ wet snow which was doing nothing then the temp dropped literally a fraction and suddenly within half an hour there was a good covering that just built and built quickly.

[Buzz]

If the snow is heavy enough then it can over come wet ground, I remember in feb 2007, in Pontyclun, we had a couple of hours of sleety/ wet snow which was doing nothing then the temp dropped literally a fraction and suddenly within half an hour there was a good covering that just built and built quickly.

Exactly, but it doesn't even need to be heavy - your example would suggest evaporative cooling, but if the snow is light and there is an influx of colder air then even that will settle on a wet surface.

[dyl232]

No yell warning over north west wales by the met anymore :-/

[Blackjack]

I maybe on the Eastern edge of it in Abergavenny, but went for a beautiful walk in Symonds Yat today and heard an owl out at around 1pm. That says to me battern down the hatches. For an owl to be out that early hunting its going to be a snowy cold few weeks. Not scientific but thats my take on it.

[Bonjangle]

I maybe on the Eastern edge of it in Abergavenny, but went for a beautiful walk in Symonds Yat today and heard an owl out at around 1pm. That says to me battern down the hatches. For an owl to be out that early hunting its going to be a snowy cold few weeks. Not scientific but thats my take on it.

Saying that Blackjack , where i live there is a brook with hedging and trees and the birds were whistling last night at 10pm and didnt shut up untill around 3 am this morning , do they know something we dont.

[Phil Barkin]

Looking at the current output I would be amazed if the eastern leading edge makes it as far as Bristol, I think Bridgend, Cardiff and possibly Newport could sit in the sweet spot for many hours and with the current predicted intensity of the front It looks like even low laying areas could be in for significant accumulations

Edited January 28, 2012 by Phil Barkin

[J10]

NAE 12Hz and slight upgrades for tomorrow, with more pink in the Chart, however things do get more marginal again on Monday.

http://expert-images...012918_2812.gif 6pm tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013000_2812.gif midnight tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 6am Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 12 noon Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6pm tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif midnight tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6am tomorrow (06Hz run)

Dewpoints

http://expert-images...012918_2812.gif 6pm tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013000_2812.gif midnight tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 6am Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6pm tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...013000_2806.gif midnight tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...013006_2806.gif 6am tomorrow (06Hz run)

Dewpoints are generally close to freezing, and fall overnight, before rising again into Monday.

So in summary IMO - again based on the models and likely to change - Valleys likely to see snow throughout

Rain turning to snow elsewhere, esp away from low ground on coast, but perhaps reverting back to sleet as Monday progresses. Precipitation amounts over 25mm in Pembrokshire, maybe 15-20mm in SE Wales valleys, 0-2mm in NE Wales.

-----------------------------

Here's a question would if there was a choice between heavy snow tomorrow or a prolonged cold spell, what would you go for.

[willitbsunny]

When is the snow event meant to be please? I'm travelling between Pencoed and Neath and back again at 2pm and 6pm tomorrow afternoon....thanks x

[Bonjangle]

NAE 12Hz and slight upgrades for tomorrow, with more pink in the Chart, however things do get more marginal again on Monday.

http://expert-images...012918_2812.gif 6pm tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013000_2812.gif midnight tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 6am Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 12 noon Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6pm tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif midnight tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6am tomorrow (06Hz run)

Dont like any of them runs , showing rain for me in every run .

[Phil Barkin]

NAE 12Hz and slight upgrades for tomorrow, with more pink in the Chart, however things do get more marginal again on Monday.

http://expert-images...012918_2812.gif 6pm tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013000_2812.gif midnight tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 6am Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 12 noon Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6pm tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif midnight tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6am tomorrow (06Hz run)

yep looking great for you guys in wales, what the NAE does not show is the rain/snow mixes that will be seen at low levels and once the intensity peps up it will be heavy snow even at sea level

Edited January 28, 2012 by Phil Barkin

[andymusic]

GFS 12z has done it again for Wales - upgrades for the length the front stalls over Wales with snow potential - now, as per the metos thoughts, front will arrive Sunday and not vacate Wales Monday (as in previous GFS runs) but more like into Wednesday

Edited January 28, 2012 by andymusic

[Bonjangle]

Looking at the current output I would be amazed if the eastern leading edge makes it as far as Bristol, I think Bridgend, Cardiff and possibly Newport could sit in the sweet spot for many hours and with the current predicted intensity of the front It looks like even low laying areas could be in for significant accumulations

Nice to here that , also welcome Phil

[Blackjack]

I reckon i'm just on the leading edge of this front. Its got to make it across a lot of mountains before it reaches me. Fingers crossed.

[keithlucky]

Whatever happens tomorrow another snow event looks possible for Tuesday again fronts push in from the west it all action for Wales over the next week.

[Bobby]

The GFS and NAE have moved the snow risk further east but those in the sweet spot could get a good dumping with the GFS showing the snow setting in on Sunday afternoon and continuing until Wednesday!

Looks like high ground in E/ Mid Wales and the Valleys is currently most at risk from significant falls.

[Phil Barkin]

I reckon i'm just on the leading edge of this front. Its got to make it across a lot of mountains before it reaches me. Fingers crossed.

Ah but you are inland with a bit of height with you anything you get will certainly be snow, you look to be just inside the envelope

[Phil Barkin]

The more I look at this the more I am really surprised the weather warnings for your neck of the woods havent been upgraded. You guys are looking at a significant disruptive event here, with a stalled front held in place by a biting east wind.

Shame I'm way out east near London

Edited January 28, 2012 by Phil Barkin

[alijoe]

GFS 12z has done it again for Wales - upgrades for the length the front stalls over Wales with snow potential - now, as per the metos thoughts, front will arrive Sunday and not vacate Wales Monday (as in previous GFS runs) but more like into Wednesday

Oh goodnes,,, could be marginal for me here, Andy, how do you fancy renting your house out for the week lol

[benb]

Another totally nuts 12z GFS run for Wales- maybe drier than the 06z, but colder-

Probably won't be that cold, but just an indication of the possible extremes of the forth-coming spell if it comes off...

[Snowmadsam]

Another totally nuts 12z GFS run for Wales- maybe drier than the 06z, but colder-

Probably won't be that cold, but just an indication of the possible extremes of the forth-coming spell if it comes off...

Lol it better haha! Feeling more confident now that I will see snow tomorrow hopefully all the way through!

I got a £10 bet on it!

Edited January 28, 2012 by Snowmadsam

[Phil Barkin]

Nice to here that , also welcome Phil

Thanks for the welcome,all eyes to the radar now for you guys in Wales you need that front over ireland to move at a snails pace, the faster it moved the better for us in the the south east of England. As I said earlier if it gets further than Bristol I will be amazed.

Intersting FAX chart for Wednesday with no sign that the atlantic will win this one

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png