South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[shedhead]

Very little chance this week in your location khodds, but you may well see some for a time over the weekend, before milder weather turns it to rain.

Edited January 30, 2012 by shedhead

[snowmadchrisuk]

Snowmadchrisuk do you think the front tomorrow night will make enough progress eastwards to effect us in SWest UK tomorrow.

HI Keith , The ECM has shifted this back West this morning but It is still Close and wouldn't take much of a movement for it to happen .. I remember once in 2009 I think it was on the 9th Feb a low like that was expected to Move SE in to France all the models showed this but when it came down to it , the low turned round and marched NE giving most of the UK an unexpected Snow day . I am not saying that will happen this time but were talking less than 50 miles adjustment for the PPN to hit us .. At the Min apart from Far SW though the models are saying no , but will keep an eye on it for you ... I'm wondering if the PPN from that low may merge with whats left of what we have had today , doubt it but you never know lol.

[keithlucky]

Yes 50miles east a slight shift met got the front reaching Pembroke then retreating.Worth watching though.Have you noticed chris another front approaching across Southern Ireland moving eastwards?

Edited January 30, 2012 by keithlucky

[snowmadchrisuk]

Yes 50miles east a slight shift met got the front reaching Pembroke then retreating.Worth watching though.Have you noticed chris another front approaching across Southern Ireland moving eastwards?

Yes I have the GFS has this Moving SE just missing Cornwall , I would say it would be unlikely to reach us as we are now into an East to West flow over the UK and everything should be forced back , The ECM low last night was interesting because it came in at a better angle and formed very close to us in the Irish sea ..Radar watching never harmed anyone though and in these Easterly's anything can pop up any time

[Frosty_wsm]

Ideally we want that feature tomorrow to be pushed further west with the 12z & 18z runs later today, that would mean the block out east is stronger so while we will miss out on the chance of snow from that feature, it would be better for the mid/longer term for us and any future battleground snow events.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Ideally we want that feature tomorrow to be pushed further west with the 12z & 18z runs later today, that would mean the block out east is stronger so while we will miss out on the chance of snow from that feature, it would be better for the mid/longer term for us and any future battleground snow events.

True , what we need to be watching is whats happening to our North West , on the 12z's we need to see less energy from the Jet running over the top ... If the block holds and the Killer low gets held back west a couple of hundred Miles the outcome would be that we would stay in an Easterly airflow ...

[devon lad]

Yep - still snowing and temperature beginning to fall again.

Temp: 1.0C

DP: 1C

dl

[Chris K]

Drying up outside now as if nothing had ever happened. Had a full morning of flurries but nothing settled. Temp is now up to 3.2c with a dp of 0.9c. Looks like playing the waiting game again now. A very cold week ahead though by sounds of it but at least it should be sunnier.

[jethro]

The snow today must have been very marginal; we had a good inch up here first thing and it was still snowing well when I left for work, as soon as I dropped down off the hills towards Midsomer Norton there was nothing at all. Work just outside Bristol and there was nothing laying there but snow falling on and off all morning. It was a green drive home all the way (including up over the top of Clutton on A37) but climbing up into this village and everywhere is still really quite white.

Mullender - don't despair on the way home, it's still quite wintery looking up here.

[AWD]

Was a nice wintery day today!

Had no snow settle, but light snow all morning! Feels really bitter out too and it's only going to get colder in the next few days!

As for the weekend, a breakdown is now likely with the Atlantic making inroads into our region! However in terms of working out what and if any snow will fall before it turns back to rain will have to be done much nearer the time, you cannot predict battleground snow amounts this far out!

Long term and the Met Office outlook plus some interesting tweets from Ian Fergusson today suggest the Atlantic won't be around long and the cold will soon coke back to us, with further battleground snowfalls!

All in all a wintery week coming up and a very ineresting Feb about to commence!

[Nights King]

The snow today must have been very marginal; we had a good inch up here first thing and it was still snowing well when I left for work, as soon as I dropped down off the hills towards Midsomer Norton there was nothing at all. Work just outside Bristol and there was nothing laying there but snow falling on and off all morning. It was a green drive home all the way (including up over the top of Clutton on A37) but climbing up into this village and everywhere is still really quite white.

Mullender - don't despair on the way home, it's still quite wintery looking up here.

woohoo! thanks for that I shall look forward to it and then maybe after a hard frost it can linger abit in the shade at least through the week

[Andy Bown]

Very much anticipating Ian Fergusson's Points West forecast this evening and he will surely review the last 24 hours with good explanations

about what has/hasn't happened and why.

Regarding the weekend, surely too far ahead to think about at this stage! The Warm Front that came in yesterday that has now retreated as

a Cold Front was predicted to get to the East Coast, then hardly encroach from the Atlantic and ended up getting almost halfway before stalling

and retreating - something it is still doing painfully slowly!

My point being that at 5-7 days out how can anybody know what's going to happen! If you enjoy the cold then enjoy what is likely to be the coldest

week of the winter so far and we may get some snow surprise at some stage!

[Frosty_wsm]

Very poor 12z gfs & ukmo, ukmo just blasts the cold away with such ease there's hardly any battle at all, still as the experts in the mo thread have said, there's so little consistency between the models at close range so the end of the week is still very much uncertain and certainly will change with future outputs.

[Nights King]

I expect a repeat of last night is quite possible but the other way round and a brief spell of snow washed away by rain as the atlantic powers through with ease.

Ian F will probably point out a potential risk of a transient event and then downgrade it 24/48hrs beforehand.

[alex131297]

I expect a repeat of last night is quite possible but the other way round and a brief spell of snow washed away by rain as the atlantic powers through with ease.

Ian F will probably point out a potential risk of a transient event and then downgrade it 24/48hrs beforehand.

More snow again! if only the other lot had settled

[Buzz]

Looking at the radar, the remains of the front seem to be intensifying - although the eaternmost edge of the band is slipping very, very, VERY slowly south.

[devon lad]

Well that's over 24 hours of continuous snow.

Weather: snowing

temp: 0.6C

DP: 1C

dl

[Frosty_wsm]

Well that's over 24 hours of continuous snow.

Jammy sod lol

[khodds]

Well that's over 24 hours of continuous snow.

Weather: snowing

temp: 0.6C

DP: 1C

dl

How much have you got up there?

[Nights King]

Well desperate times call for desperate measures and I don't mean im going skiing sorry

With some hard frosts possible later this week ive decided to wheel out the last resort...

[Lynxus]

Well that's over 24 hours of continuous snow.

Weather: snowing

temp: 0.6C

DP: 1C

dl

PIX or it didnt happen

Well desperate times call for desperate measures and I don't mean im going skiing sorry

With some hard frosts possible later this week ive decided to wheel out the last resort...

Isnt it time you went skiing?

[theprophecyman]

Evening All, found this link on the mod forum earlier (it's madness in there!!, so easy to get lost with all the techie stuff),

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

it starts from 6am this morning, but if you go to from 144hrs through to 162hrs, looks like the SW will get a snow fest, although I have no idea at all what models these use

I'm guessing this shows the atlantic front pushing in from the west over the weekend??

Right, out to put the blanket over the windscreen

[Nights King]

PIX or it didnt happen

Isnt it time you went skiing?

Haha I wish it was although I still cannot believe I missed all of the largest snow events to hit westcountry in last 4 years while seeing nothing on holiday to have a break from skiing holidays for one year only to get nothing so far!

[westysweather]

I reckon im going to avoid the mod thread for the next two days! Maybe ill then come back to some more clarity and no more biased arguments! Glad too see some get a reasonable fall, nothing will better last hear when we had 9inches fall in just over 3 hours!

[alex131297]

whens our next snow? haha