Yorkshire And Lincolnshire Regional Discussion Thread

[lightningst]

that chart looks great. started my holidays today so got all week to enjoy anything it can throw at us. lets hope today and next week makes up for such a mild winter so far

morning all, the excitement builds, i am slightly concered though that the net-weather snow risk for here today is only 52%, another doubt that has been put in my mind that this just wont be as good as hoped.

says that for hull as well. do netweather use the gfs charts for there snow forecast. if there do this could explain the low percentage

Edited February 4, 2012 by lightningst

[Steady]

What do people just to the east of the peninnes make of the potential rain shadow effect? If u look at the nae precip accumulation charts they clearly show less precip over south yorks and parts of west yorks. Even the snow depth maps show less snow in those areas with it turning green (i.e. no snow) in 36 hrs whilst around us is covered!

Maybe we shouldnt read into the finer detail for now but experiance from my location even at 160m in Sheffield suggests snow from the west is difficult given the shelter of the hills. Our saving grace may be the triple point creating a circulation that pulls in winds from a more variable point in which case it should be better.

Any thoughts most appreciated.

Sheffield

160m

[Aaron]

The latest NAE charts remove that little dry patch and show us getting heavy snow just like E Yorks.. so no worries

[Snow Angel]

that chart looks great. started my holidays today so got all week to enjoy anything it can throw at us. lets hope today and next week makes up for such a mild winter so far

says that for hull as well. do netweather use the gfs charts for there snow forecast. if there do this could explain the low percentage

It is only showing me as 37% and I am in Leeds. The forecast on net weather shows me as sleet at best which seems a little strange from what the BBC is showing. Guess I have to wait and see :-)

[lightningst]

someone said that it said zero for there area the other day but they had a couple of inches so dont think its very acurate, so yeah think best thing to do just wait and see what falls out of the skys. fingers very crossed for everyone. whats the betting even if we do get a lot of snow all the news will be about london if there get a few cm.

[Love Snow]

It is only showing me as 37% and I am in Leeds. The forecast on net weather shows me as sleet at best which seems a little strange from what the BBC is showing. Guess I have to wait and see :-)

Wouldn't worry I'm just outside in LS27 and i'm still pretty confident we will soon find out my shade temp is -1.8 so its all looking good IMO

[pottyprof]

What do people just to the east of the peninnes make of the potential rain shadow effect? If u look at the nae precip accumulation charts they clearly show less precip over south yorks and parts of west yorks. Even the snow depth maps show less snow in those areas with it turning green (i.e. no snow) in 36 hrs whilst around us is covered!

I think it depends on how fast the front comes through. The rain shadow tends to depend on the speed, at least for this neck of the woods. The NMM shows a bit of a hole in the precipitation but we shall see....

[Harsh Climate]

Woohoo the snow isn't too far away now and is looking like being heavier and slower moving! Well according to this mornings output anyway

[Harsh Climate]

I think it depends on how fast the front comes through. The rain shadow tends to depend on the speed, at least for this neck of the woods. The NMM shows a bit of a hole in the precipitation but we shall see....

I'm thinking if we do get any sleet/rain as the front passes through it will not be on the backside of it, it will be when the slightly milder uppers move in at around 6/7pm, but turning back to snow as the front clears (due to colder uppers being drawn back in later on.)

Who knows though if the precipitation is intense, we could perhaps get away with lowers as mild as -2hpa and still allow for all snow. Obviously city centre areas not so lucky..

[Aaron]

Someone one TWO posted '

this is a decaying occlusion with the main precipitation, triple point etc. still out to the west'

As you can see there is more PPN out to the west..

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Not sure what to expect here, just very excited. Current temperature in shade is -1 with a dew point of -2 so as things stand very favourable. If we do get snow I am wondering how quick the melt will be on Sunday/Monday - any ideas? Wouldn't it be great it the snow lasted all week and was then topped up when next weeks easterly/northerly occurs a la GFS 06z run.

[Harsh Climate]

Not sure what to expect here, just very excited. Current temperature in shade is -1 with a dew point of -2 so as things stand very favourable. If we do get snow I am wondering how quick the melt will be on Sunday/Monday - any ideas? Wouldn't it be great it the snow lasted all week and was then topped up when next weeks easterly/northerly occurs a la GFS 06z run.

With the ground temperatures already quite cold and the fact we aren't returning to the usual 'mild south westerlies' after a bit of snow, it should be a very slow melt with high pressure moving back in and cold nights returning. Just depends how much it rains sunday/monday as that would be what melts/washes our snow away.

[NW Leeds Russ]

Jed / Cheese Rice,

What's your take on this?

Just looked at radar and there seems to be 2 lines of precipitation. Hopefully not a warm sector in between.

Best case would be for first line to stall and be invigourated with the other..!

[Alex95]

Jed / Cheese Rice,

What's your take on this?

Just looked at radar and there seems to be 2 lines of precipitation. Hopefully not a warm sector in between.

Best case would be for first line to stall and be invigourated with the other..!

Sorry wrong thread, but the first front is a warm front and the second front is a cold front. There is a mild sector in between, but the cold front is expected to catch up with the warm front to create an occluded front. I doubt the mild sector will pose much of a problem, although you should still get some back edge drizzle as the fronts clear through - this might even affect the far SE.

[reef]

The first band is a weak occlusion with the second the main warm front behind. The cold front will eventually catch up and this should pep up the precipitation.

This is roughly where we stand at the moment (please excuse the crap drawing as Im at work and only have paint!):

(Radar image from the MetOffice at 11:00)

[Harsh Climate]

Jed / Cheese Rice,

What's your take on this?

Just looked at radar and there seems to be 2 lines of precipitation. Hopefully not a warm sector in between.

Best case would be for first line to stall and be invigourated with the other..!

I agree with what alza and reef have said

I think at some point these fronts should merge and hopefully give a more pronounced line of precipitation. My hope is that this can coincide with the warm front/milder air and evaporative cooling allows it to be all snow.

A big plus is the 0C isotherm,

At potentially the mildest period of today/ the event, we have the ) degree isotherm at 0, this would to me suggest all snow

[ITSY]

okay people...my guesstimate for today's total accumulation for my area (Hyde Park, Leeds) is 8cms. Anything above that for here and i'll be surprised! I reckon Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire in EA will be the sweet spots with 12-15cms.

[NW Leeds Russ]

I agree with what alza and reef have said

I think at some point these fronts should merge and hopefully give a more pronounced line of precipitation. My hope is that this can coincide with the warm front/milder air and evaporative cooling allows it to be all snow.

A big plus is the 0C isotherm,

At potentially the mildest period of today/ the event, we have the ) degree isotherm at 0, this would to me suggest all snow

Thanks guys.

Down in the city at work and can only access on limited time.

Wish I was back up in Pudsey.

Should be back for 7pm ish. Could be action time..!

[Lewis]

Hi guys,

After a mild winter so far, i'm delighted that we are finally getting a more realistic theme towards the end of the winter, I've been keeping a very close eye on all the models over the past week or so, and the GFS along with the ECMWF have been quite accurate.

I'm impressed with the NAE of late, it's normally a model that I would discard in the past, due to some of the poor modeling of these type of situations it has done in the past, a lot of you will remember last years let down, when the UKMO decided to go against their own model.

There's agreement across the board from all models regarding which areas are likely to see the snow. At the moment the heaviest of the snowfall looks to be around the Humber, and then as the precipitation heads south eastwards there's further intensification likely around the Wash and into EA, before it slowly starts to loose it's intensity as it heads in to the far SE.

Our neck of the woods looks very good for Eastern areas of the region, South bank of the Humber across Lincolnshire and into the East Midlands.

At the moment I would say the heaviest of the snowfall will be around East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, but I don't think the snowfall will be as prolonged (possibly with the band slightly thinner across this region). It may push through a little quicker, with the band of the precipitation becoming slower moving, and also at a more organised point across central parts of Lincolnshire and the East Midlands, which is the 2 areas which I think will see the higher accumulations.

The rule I'm going for is typically 2-5cm's of snowfall for East Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Northern Lincolnshire, with more possible in these locations, depending on how structured the band of precipitation is, and also how it maintains it's intensity.

For central parts of Lincolnshire and areas around the Wash, I would expect 4-5cm's quite widely with the potential for some falls of 7-10cm's. Higher ground (The wolds) may get a little more, the same applies to any elevated location.

With regards to the far West of the region, there's still a little uncertainty, the initial precipitation will be of snow, but there's a possibility that it may turn back to sleet/rain, more especially for low level areas, areas with any elevation in the West should mainly see an all snow event. 2-4cm's of snowfall, as much as 7cm's over higher ground.

Here's a few charts from the models;

NAE Rain snowfall

http://expert-images...020500_0406.gif

NAE Snow Accumulation

http://expert-images...020506_0406.gif

GFS 0C Isotherm

T-12 (18:00)

http://cdn.nwstatic....degisotherm.png

T-15 (21:00)

http://cdn.nwstatic....degisotherm.png

0C isotherms throughout are fine.

NMM Precipitation rate & Precipitation type

I want to see how the temperatures respond throughout this afternoon, current temperature here in Hull is 1.4c with a dew point of -7, what are others temperatures/dew at the moment?

I received my first snowfall of this winter on Thursday night, I was awake until 2am watching the snow showers develop and push across the region. I had around 2cm's of snow, to then wake up to less than a cm, the air was that dry, and temperature hit -5c over night so took all the moisture out of the snowfall. How did any of you guys do that night?

Lewis

Edited February 4, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[ITSY]

nicely put Lewis - think youre estimations may be slightly too moderate,but always better to edge on the side of caution I guess

[reef]

I want to see how the temperatures respond throughout this afternoon, current temperature here in Hull is 1.4c with a dew point of -7, what are others temperatures/dew at the moment?

I received my first snowfall of this winter on Thursday night, I was awake until 2am watching the snow showers develop and push across the region. I had around 2cm's of snow, to then wake up to less than a cm, the air was that dry, and temperature hit -5c over night so took all the moisture out of the snowfall. How did any of you guys do that night?

Lewis

The area the snowfall hit was pretty localised, the flow was so weak that showers failed to penetrate far inland. Out to the west of the city there was just a dusting, with a cover in the city centre and around a centimetre in East Hull. We had around 2-3cm and closer to the coast it was more like 3-5cm. Its actually still there now, with little thaw yesterday though frozen solid of course.

The temperature is pretty favourable here at 0.9C with a dewpoint of -3.2C.

[Aaron]

-0.5c atm, rising

[SnowRules]

Met Office warning extended further north and west..

[Lewis]

The area the snowfall hit was pretty localised, the flow was so weak that showers failed to penetrate far inland. Out to the west of the city there was just a dusting, with a cover in the city centre and around a centimetre in East Hull. We had around 2-3cm and closer to the coast it was more like 3-5cm. Its actually still there now, with little thaw yesterday though frozen solid of course.

The temperature is pretty favourable here at 0.9C with a dewpoint of -3.2C.

hi reef, i was looking at your location that night, but wasn't too sure where you was on the radar, but it looked like you got the heaviest of the precipitation, they seemed to be a gap of about 5-6 miles between the 2 feeds of precipitation the one out the east over you was the heaviest, and I was right on the edge of the other stream which started off mainly light but gave me some fairly moderate snowfall before it slowly fizzled out.

I can't help but notice again our difference in temps, my current temp is 1.6c now, with your's lower and you are closer to the coast. I really must fix this, I don't know if it's something to do with my garden, or maybe my weather station is not as accurate as I thought when I purchased it for £199.99!

[A Winter's Tale]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72467-uk-snowfall-your-depths/