Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 3)

[Scarlet_Snow]

haha the good old nae....lets just hope its right

[Jayfromcardiff]

I won't be looking at potential snow events for next tuesday, too far away IMO - we're not even 100% on saturday yet.

[Marcus_surfer]

Snowfest for much of England

[J10]

Jackone is it true its called the pub run because this run has less data.

the 00hz and 12hz have better data and verification stats than the 06Hz and 18hz, however we cannot ignore a chart just because it doesn't say what we want.

NAE looks quite decent, and looks a bit further west, there is quite a bit of snow shown at 6pm Saturday, alas I think that may be overdoing it slightlty.

The charts contine to be more promising, but most of us still need further upgrades before Saturday.

[andymusic]

And on that note folks I'm off to bed - been a long day today - started at 5am or was it 6am - can't flippin remember it's been that long a day

Anyway - sleep tight hope jack frost doesn't bite and I'll see you all nice and early in the morning for more fun and games where the models will lead us right round the mulberry bush and back again (I won't say like sheep - but maybe I should) until we're all stressed to hell and back and wearisome - so that by the time any snow turns up - we'll all be flippin well asleep with exhaustion!

Nighty night people of Wales x

[keithlucky]

People are reckoning how cold the air is.

[Buzz]

Better late than never nae

Very nice. And if you look at the previous 6 hours it starts off as snow too over a fair amount of Wales:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

[swales]

Here's the high-res NMM.

Hope NW don't mind me posting. Sat morn.

Edited February 2, 2012 by shaunwales

[TonyH]

-7.5c now

[Jayfromcardiff]

Here's the high-res NMM.

Hope NW don't mind me posting. Sat morn.

Lol i will be so close to saying it's snowing in Cardiff at that stage mate.

[keithlucky]

Fax good for wales good signs of stalling fronts

Edited February 2, 2012 by keithlucky

[TheWeatherGirl]

I'm not getting the temperature variations which both the met and bbc are claiming. how can it be 6 degrees in cardiff and minus 1 in kent (seriously, thats only a 250 mile difference ) on the same night ??

[mrmonopoly]

I would assume its because in Kent they have an easterly, and when front is over us we have a southerly/westerly warmer air from the sea. Besides 50 miles can make a massive differance all depends on what air mass u sit under. Personally where I am a snowfest is unlikely, a wet ice fest for a time perhaps.

I'm not getting the temperature variations which both the met and bbc are claiming. how can it be 6 degrees in cardiff and minus 1 in kent (seriously, thats only a 250 mile difference ) on the same night ??

[WalsallWeather]

Better late than never nae

Now that is promising for most of Wales.. Still looks touch and go for me in Pontyberem, near Llanelli & Carmarthen but it's looking a lot better..

Still, a lot of rain behind it! Can't see all of that turning to snow..

Edited February 2, 2012 by CarmarthenshireWeather

[swales]

Now that is promising for most of Wales.. Still looks touch and go for me in Pontyberem, near Llanelli & Carmarthen but it's looking a lot better..

Still, a lot of rain behind it! Can't see all of that turning to snow..

Yeah, I guess higher ground in the West/SW of Wales should definitely see some snow (areas close to us, namely Tumble/Llannon/Mynydd Sylen as per usual lol)

Edited February 3, 2012 by shaunwales

[worldairgroup]

Morning everyone on this nice and crispy morning!! OK guys I know we have not even got through the events of this weekend and monday/tuesday next week, but look at this GFS run for Feb 18th, long way off and obviously i know things will change but it looks like a definite event with effects for some people, dont know how far south it will go as yet (if only this was for this weekend!). Thoughts anyone, without slating me for being absolutely barmy looking this far ahead!

[worldairgroup]

interesting 0000z run Friday 3/2 for 1800 saturday. if only this stalls slightly west and this would be good!

EDIT Tuesday is looking more promising from 0300 through to Thursday 1800 with a nice band of precip over us for a long time, everything crossed! LOL we may miss out this weekend but better chance on tuesday!

Edited February 3, 2012 by worldairgroup

[worldairgroup]

Morning everyone on this nice and crispy morning!! OK guys I know we have not even got through the events of this weekend and monday/tuesday next week, but look at this GFS run for Feb 18th, long way off and obviously i know things will change but it looks like a definite event with effects for some people, dont know how far south it will go as yet (if only this was for this weekend!). Thoughts anyone, without slating me for being absolutely barmy looking this far ahead!

6 hours later for same day. very interesting.

[welshwizard]

morning guys bbc still has this event as rain for wales tomor except for far east newport boarder,but by the looks it changes to rain there as well, i also notice that it feels warmer out today,even though its covered in frost just feels warmer,maybe its me lol. i am still going to believe,just like santa ha ha. just to add bbc local weather just said snow warning for east wales but will turn to rain and going milder,7 plus on sat and 6 plus on sunday.

Edited February 3, 2012 by welshwizard

[DeepSnow]

So what has changed since last night? are we any more/less likely to see snow over the weekend? Currently my coldest night of the winter so fat at -4.6C with a dew point of -12C and a frost on the cars and grass.

Edited February 3, 2012 by DeepSnow

[welshwizard]

So what has changed since last night? are we any more/less likely to see snow over the weekend? Currently my coldest night of the winter so fat at -4.6C with a dew point of -12C and a frost on the cars and grass.

well by the looks ov bbc local and bbc main weather it looks like all the snow is going to be london kent for quite a long time and should get a very good covering,as for us in wales they (THINK) that Newport area could get snow but then turn to rain,as for most of the rest west it looks like as the cloud pushes in before the rain/snow it will warm us to the extent that it be rain event for most ov us from the word go, but its the weather so who knows,they also give much warmer temp for sat and sunday,didnt say anything about next week,but on itv i notice they said the cold weather was here to stay next week. maybe they are talking about london area as some on tv only think london exists in uk lol.

[Simon SWales]

Snow in Newport! I hope so! I hope all of us get it either sat or tues........ Or both :-)

[TonyH]

Warmer?

-10.2c currently

[welshwizard]

Warmer?

-10.2c currently

i know exactly what u mean,and yes it probs is colder,but where i live it just feels calmer and warmer than yest,but there is no wind today and that does not happen very often where i lve. it is not cutting into u like it was yest :-)

[Blackjack]

-5.4c

dew -8.5c

Slight frost.

Looking more promising for East England now but its down to nowcasting and lampost watching tomorrow.

5cm forcast for Wales can easily turn out to be 15cm. Its happend before.