Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 3)

[swales]

Currently -4.2c here.

This mornings actual low air temp was -6.0c...

The car thermometer read -9 when I first started her up haha... just goes to show how inaccurate they can be at reading air temps. Usually the temp comes back to a reasonable range after a few minutes of driving.

Weekend - well not looking forward to rain and milder conditions, I'd rather it be dry and cold. Wouldn't it BENEFIT most of the UK if the front stalled much further west? I mean the far South East of England will remain cold but most other places will see higher temps than the last few days which is a shame.

This block better put up a damn good fight, disappointment is not uncommon in this village though.

[horacegoesskiing]

Here's the gfs 18z for saturday lunchtime!

a good start

give us some hope Andy !!!

I am very pessimistic re saturday and expecting the worst so i can hopefully be pleasantly suprised!!

[andymusic]

give us some hope Andy !!!

I am very pessimistic re saturday and expecting the worst so i can hopefully be pleasantly suprised!!

I think this ones gonna be radar followed by head out the window or lampost watching! - models are all over the place - east west colder milder - enough to fry anyone's brains this one - stick head out of window - add a brolly for rain or wooly hat for snow!

Alternately - edit:- drive down to Kent - seems they are gonna have more than they can deal with over about 3 days! (according to the GFS 18z) - but we don't wanna give you that - we want it in WALES!

Edited February 2, 2012 by andymusic

[mikeocarroll]

Temp rose here briefly to a balmy -5.0c (passing cloud?) but that was about 45mins ago and since then has fallen steadily, -6.6c now, decidedly chilly.

[Scarlet_Snow]

I think its about time we had some luck swing our way for once, surely there must be a time when things upgrade dramatically, we get plenty of major downgrades around here

[Marcus_surfer]

-4.4C here

[keithlucky]

-4.4C here

Your winter chart be kind say 1 day of snow lol.

[Gavla]

How much of a shift west do we actually need for this to be all snow? Could other factors change to aid all it being all snow? i reckon andy will be right with heads out window/lampost watching, me with a brolly and everyone else hat and gloves.

[andymusic]

Tuesday is still looking good mind

Edited February 2, 2012 by andymusic

[swales]

I think its about time we had some luck swing our way for once, surely there must be a time when things upgrade dramatically, we get plenty of major downgrades around here

Indeed. I don't want to jinx us but what's gonna happen is the front will push in, gain intensity just before hitting Wales and pour snow over us for 24 hours straight - stalling - with precipitation not making it past the Welsh border. Everywhere stays dry except Wales which will receive a foot of snow.

I have no evidence to back my fantasy up.

Edited February 2, 2012 by shaunwales

[keithlucky]

Interesting fax again a wave develops on the front stalling the front increasing our length of snow time.

[Herefordweather]

Indeed. I don't want to jinx us but what's gonna happen is the front will push in, gain intensity just before hitting Wales and pour snow over us for 24 hours straight - stalling - with precipitation not making it past the Welsh border. Everywhere stays dry except Wales which will receive a foot of snow.

I have no evidence to back my fantasy up.

Harsh....

[Gavla]

Tuesday is still looking good mind

Does it still show higher totals and all snow compared to this weekend?. I do know its very unlikely to pan out like shown but what would it produce as currently modelled on 18z ?

[Scarlet_Snow]

Harsh....

we'll allow a small amount through for hereford

[welshwizard]

Indeed. I don't want to jinx us but what's gonna happen is the front will push in, gain intensity just before hitting Wales and pour snow over us for 24 hours straight - stalling - with precipitation not making it past the Welsh border. Everywhere stays dry except Wales which will receive a foot of snow.

I have no evidence to back my fantasy up.

i agree with u,and im not joking. i just got a gut feeling that this may happen. i know what it says and that charts etc dont think that will happen but i do so thats all that counts in my mind and if im wrong i can blame myself lol. and then get drunk watching the game on sunday after netball so dont tell me the score ha ha

[J10]

GFS not good in short term for Saturday, still awaiting NAE to come out properly.

[welshwizard]

forgot to say,i had to go over penrhys tonight and fair play there is still lots of snow up there,i thought i done well from last snow event but penrhys done me big time. still some on the roads by the roundabout, dont they get any sun up there?

[keithlucky]

GFS not good in short term for Saturday, still awaiting NAE to come out properly.

Jackone is it true its called the pub run because this run has less data.

[WalsallWeather]

Not even going to look at any models/data.. We will get rain, some may get snow followed by rain.

My only very little bit of hope is just remember a few days ago when we all expected snow, how much that situation changed in a matter of hours and the vast majority of us ended up with sod all but a wet floor.

[mrmonopoly]

Does that fax chart not show the dam line much further east tho, so that front stalling just means rain. We need the easterly to blow that little bit stronger huh? Think its gonna be same as 2010 when majority of the good snow was midlands east.

[swales]

Not even going to look at any models/data.. We will get rain, some may get snow followed by rain.

My only very little bit of hope is just remember a few days ago when we all expected snow, how much that situation changed in a matter of hours and the vast majority of us ended up with sod all but a wet floor.

I'm with Welshwizard, my gut is telling me snowfest. We need to hope this block is MUCH stronger than the models think it is... and with a bit of luck it will stall in a perfect position for Wales snowfest.

Does that fax chart not show the dam line much further east tho, so that front stalling just means rain. We need the easterly to blow that little bit stronger huh? Think its gonna be same as 2010 when majority of the good snow was midlands east.

Don't worry about the dam line. I'm sure I've read it can be used as a guide but by no means a definite answer for snow/rain. However, I'm no expert.

Edited February 2, 2012 by shaunwales

[Daniel Miller]

Does that fax chart not show the dam line much further east tho, so that front stalling just means rain. We need the easterly to blow that little bit stronger huh? Think its gonna be same as 2010 when majority of the good snow was midlands east.

Wow, did you seriously just write that? 2010 was the best winter of my relatively short life! Less snow than 2011 (still had atleast 8 inches though) but it lingered for agess.

[andymusic]

Better late than never nae

[keithlucky]

LOVE IT NICE

Andy great stuff

[swales]

Better late than never nae

Not bad for Sat evening. I mean if the NAE is showing signs of wintry precipitation for most of Wales then surely people still have some hope. Definitely a now-casting event as many people have repeatedly said.