Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 3)

[chubbystuff]

just back from the school run car temp gauge showing -6 and 15 mins to de-ice the car brrrrrrrrrr

[Buzz]

Well, having looked at this morning's model runs there has been little (if any) shift westwards for the weekend front. Any snow in Wales is going to turn to rain, and in far western areas will almost certainly start as rain or sleet.

We can but hope for a westward shift of a mere 100 miles or so.

Also, remember that the models always struggle with this kind of setup - even though they may show the front moving through, it may change on the day.

So, three hopes for us:

1) a moderate westward shift in the modelling of the front

2) bit of nowcasting and hoping that even if the models don't show a westwards stall, that it will on the day ............

3) both of the above.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Buzz

[DeepSnow]

Just taken this from the model thread:

Looks like a lot of areas will see something, though at the moment as the models stand i don't think it would last over the west! Still atleast would cold see some snow before the rain (providing the front doesn't move west and it does turn to rain)

[welshwizard]

Come on guys keep positive any precipation that comes over Wales will be snow at first but then comes the debate whether it will stay as snow or turn to rain...the charts have trended a shift further west if they continue to go west today then by this evening we could all be happy bunnies gonna be an interesting day.....

i also think it will be snow,but itv did show green over most ov Wales with west very green and east a little blue,i dont think the warm with push through as easy as they think,but got to keep a open mind lol

[welshwizard]

Have faith. 0z had it about Reading, 6z has it almost at Bristol.

So we need the 12z to have it at the Bridge and the 18z to have it at Cardiff.

lol i like your thinking

[judowidow]

A miserly -2.2c here. Since i've moved from the countryside my temps really aren't that impressive anymore. I'll keep an eager watch of the charts and models over the next 24 hours. Then as ususal down to nowcasting.

Going to be an interesting weekend what ever happens plus the 6 nations is on, so stuck in the house with my homebrew won't too bad.

I live in Abergavenny Town too, but it feels colder than -.2.2 Brrr, the snow is still Hanging around on the Blorenge, on the positive What a gloriously Sunny Morning :-)

[Buzz]

NAE charts are usually pretty good and are currently showing mostly rain for west Wales at 0600 Saturday:

http://www.weatheron...0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

This may change of course ............. I hope so!

Edited February 2, 2012 by Buzz

[jo200199]

Well if its looking as if we' ll miss out then I'll take it as a good sign because when we're forecast a snowfest itnever pans out. Reverse psychology will hopefully mean I can dust the sliegh off for the kids lol

[KTtom]

NAE charts are usually pretty good and are currently showing mostly rain for west Wales at 0600 Saturday:

http://www.weatheron...0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

This may change of course ............. I hope so!

Yep, it also speaks volumes how quiet this thread is compred to the other regional threads, just been on the model thread and couldn't find 1 post which discussed the models further than the weekend. Looks pretty sure to be rain for the western half of wales at least, just have to sit back and watch England having all the fun with gritted teeth!

[andymusic]

Yep, it also speaks volumes how quiet this thread is compred to the other regional threads, just been on the model thread and couldn't find 1 post which discussed the models further than the weekend. Looks pretty sure to be rain for the western half of wales at least, just have to sit back and watch England having all the fun with gritted teeth!

you can't really say that with this set up - it'll only take a small movement of the front/cold westwards to make this more interesting for Wales - and it won't be just today that upgrades need to occur - they could occur tomorrow too! - this set up will be an on the day event as usual - it'll be great watching the reports coming to see who gets snow - how long for etc etc! - Let's hope the weather luck is with us all saturday and we all get the white stuff to play in!

[Blackjack]

I live in Abergavenny Town too, but it feels colder than -.2.2 Brrr, the snow is still Hanging around on the Blorenge, on the positive What a gloriously Sunny Morning :-)

You can check out current conditions for AberG on the link in my signature. Felt bitter last night due to the windchill

[whiskers]

just watched the sky news and they said snow for us on saturday,do they know something we don't or are they just covering their backs!

[whiskers]

just checked metoffice they to have us in the yellow alert on saturday,should i not get my hopes up?

[Blackjack]

If this does push further East what are the chances of it stalling or being pushed back slightly then falling away south dragging NWlys and potential for snow all in Wales. I have no clue what i'm talking about but just going to observations of previous weather. Explination as to why it could or couldn't happen would be appreciated

Just seen that its coing from the NW anyway so ignore the above

Edited February 2, 2012 by Blackjack

[Buzz]

just checked metoffice they to have us in the yellow alert on saturday,should i not get my hopes up?

Based on the current model output, not really. Best hope that it stalls or doesn't move as far east as currently forecast. A stall over Wales would be best for us (but then central and eastern areas of England would miss out). It's one of those situations where only a portion of people will 'win'.

[DeepSnow]

just checked metoffice they to have us in the yellow alert on saturday,should i not get my hopes up?

I think this is because as it hits the colder air over us it will be a snow event to start with for us, then turning to rain later on which is why the warning for sunday only includes England!? So there is a fair chance we will get a few cm's on saturday though, i could be wrong so please correct me anyone!

[Cheshire Freeze]

A stall over Wales/western England would probably be best in the long run for more sustained cold but I guess people are more concerned with the short term ATM

[Bonjangle]

Issued at - 02 Feb 2012, 12:43

Valid from - 04 Feb 2012, 12:00

Valid to - 04 Feb 2012, 23:59

A band of snow is expected to move slowly across England and Wales during Saturday afternoon and evening. Accumulations of snow of around 5cm are likely in places; this includes low lying areas . The public are advised that some travel disruption may result, and should pay close attention to forecasts as the event approaches. Snow is like to turn to sleet then rain in Wales and more western parts of England later on Saturday.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Aquastarmist

[KTtom]

I think most (except the far western/south western coastal fringes will see at least some snow on Saturday, how much and how quickly it turns to rain depends on how much the block to the east holds the front up. In the 80's this type of set up used to result in fronts stalling ...or am I straw clutching

[Buzz]

I think most (except the far western/south western coastal fringes will see at least some snow on Saturday, how much and how quickly it turns to rain depends on how much the block to the east holds the front up. In the 80's this type of set up used to result in fronts stalling ...or am I straw clutching

A stall is our best hope - no, I don't think that you're straw-clutching.

[Scarlet_Snow]

Right everyone, come saturday, open your freezer doors and set them outside! Yes I think I have gone insane watching these charts thinking about whats going to happen!

[WalsallWeather]

Just watched the BBC weather and it looks like just to top this great* winter off, a large part of the UK is going to see snow whilst we see rain.

*sarcasm

[welshwizard]

Just watched the BBC weather and it looks like just to top this great* winter off, a large part of the UK is going to see snow whilst we see rain.

*sarcasm

lol be some very upset people in here on sat then,i still think it is so cold there be a fightback from this cold and keep the cold over us. its nobbling out there.

[welshwizard]

also i still got quite a bit ov snow left in my garden and only the sun for a few hours has melted it then it freezes again at night,and the old saying is if the snow sticks around its waiting for more.i myself could do without snow this weekend as we got loads ov sport with the kids and lots ov traveling to do and dont fancy doing that in the snow,so if we do have snow please leave it wait until after 5 on sat and chuck so much down i dont have to risk traveling early sunday morn.

[WalsallWeather]

lol be some very upset people in here on sat then,i still think it is so cold there be a fightback from this cold and keep the cold over us. its nobbling out there.

I know, so glad I am off work today. Heating has broke and it has been horrible the past few days. Particularly yesterday!