Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 3)

[TonyH]

Agreed, what a beautiful day, OK no snow but beautiful and quite cold.

[loadsa]

1982 what a year Caerphilly was cut off for a week. Was panicking as wife was due with our first born (held on for anther 2 weeks). Inlaws lived in a bungalow and I had to dig them out as the snow was above both of their doors. We also had a horse on the top of Caerphilly mountain. Due to the wife's condition I had to go and feed as the horses as the farmer had left the property. Usually a walk to where they were took about 30 minutes. It took me 8 hours to get up there, feed the horses and come back ( also rescued a vixen who had fallen in one of the wells). The horses had managed to keep a channel of about a metre wide in front of the stables and no ore. So just opened up all the stables and the hay and straw barn and left them to it.

[keithlucky]

Well what can you say about the models ? front stalling now across the Midlands then fizzing out ,there is signs of the front could stall further west with a s easterly wind flow .Can the models be more mixed up as they are now.

[Zenarcher]

Did your mate get some new crayons for Xmas?!?!?!?

I'm sorry?

The snow maps are made by me on a simple program called 'Paint' yes they are not a masterpiece or anything but there point is to help members know where snow and sleet is likely on a certain day.

[J10]

There now looks to be much more of a battle between the cold and mild weather over the weekend. GFS has the mild winning the easiest and UKMO and ECM increasingly having the cold in the far more of a contest, Interesting now looking forward to the weekend.

[nwales]

Well, snow or no snow it's good to have some cold this winter. Yesterday was the coldest day of the winter here with a max of 0.7c. Only -2.2c last night though with all the cloud around. Expecting a very cold night tonight though, it's already -3.3c

[andymusic]

ECM major upgrade and possible further upgrades before this front reaches us this weekend - somewhere is gonna get a good dumping of snow - and Wales could well be in the firing line!

[Snowmadsam]

ECM major upgrade and possible further upgrades before this front reaches us this weekend - somewhere is gonna get a good dumping of snow - and Wales could well be in the firing line!

will it turn to snow before hitting Wales at this rate...if so then all week the BBC forecasts would have been wrong...

[andymusic]

will it turn to snow before hitting Wales at this rate...if so then all week the BBC forecasts would have been wrong...

there faxes (meto/BBC) are changing by the model run - and everything is moving west - so the cold is clinging on - and the front changes more and more to snow for longer or completely - and also struggles to get further and further in - we have been here before and we could do VERY VERY well out of this over the weekend!

Edited February 1, 2012 by andymusic

[Daniel Miller]

there faxes (meto/BBC) are changing by the model run - and everything is moving west - so the cold is clinging on - and the front changes more and more to snow for longer or completely - and also struggles to get further and further in - we have been here before and we could do VERY VERY well out of this over the weekend!

If it does snow loads, I'm trekking up to your house to watch you doing a snow dance in your garden in your boxers... ahahaha

Anyone know any possible totals? Also, the way things are going, the atlantic incursion may be non-existent, which means the white stuff don't melt

[keithlucky]

There now looks to be much more of a battle between the cold and mild weather over the weekend. GFS has the mild winning the easiest and UKMO and ECM increasingly having the cold in the far more of a contest, Interesting now looking forward to the weekend.

Jackone if the flow is a S Easterly the continent being so cold surely Wales must have a pretty good chance having snow.If the ECM is correct.

[Snowmadsam]

ECM doesn't have snow for me according to snowfall charts on wunderground anyway feeling left out now...

[andymusic]

To soon to know for definite - models are shifting things here there and everywhere - I remember a situation a few years back - where a low from the south west was coming up towards us into cold air - Derek made a sweeping statement then (within 12-24 hours of this happening) that there'd be no snow - wouldn't come that far north west - well - what did we get up to the following day - snowfest - the front had made it here and dumped one hell of a load of snow - and Derek was full of apologies - it is the worst scenario to forecast this sort of set up and can lead to all sorts of eggs over all sorts of pro forecasters faces - this is the latest for the weekend from the meto - they are being very generalised cause they are not sure either (meto/bbc - all the same)

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Staying largely fine but very cold on Friday with some spells of sunshine. Probably turning unsettled during the weekend with rain and snow spreading from the west.

ECM doesn't have snow for me according to snowfall charts on wunderground anyway feeling left out now...

hold in there Sam - models are shifting the cold further west - by the weekend it could be in your back yard

Edited February 1, 2012 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

I said yesterday watch the front get pushed westwards it now stalled over Wales Lets hope fax dont change.

Edited February 1, 2012 by keithlucky

[Snowmadsam]

its gonna be very interesting...this time tomorrow we will know

[keithlucky]

its gonna be very interesting...this time tomorrow we will know

Pray Sam the fax stays the same even shift a fraction westwards if you look at the fronts there a wave in it ,if it not snow it would cause some localised flooding.

[Snowmadsam]

lets keep fingers crossed

[mikeocarroll]

its gonna be very interesting...this time tomorrow we will know

I don't think so! We'll know on Saturday evening by which point we should have a fairly good idea whether it snowed all day or rained all day

Seriously, this is going to be a case of watching the radar and reading reports from around the country, this thread should be buzzing on Saturday, to see whether we get snow or not.

Could be amazing though.

[ourson]

I'm sorry?

The snow maps are made by me on a simple program called 'Paint' yes they are not a masterpiece or anything but there point is to help members know where snow and sleet is likely on a certain day.

Someone got out of bed the wrong side methinks. CHILL OUT Weathermaster. I know England are gonna stuff the scots on the weekend, but Wales will kick some Irish butts and get loads of snow - happy days!!

Edited February 1, 2012 by ourson

[Marcus_surfer]

-3.3°C already could get down to -5°C tonight

So models looking better than yesterday for snow? I thought a westerly wind would increase temps ahead of the system so that it would fall as rain and sleet?

Edited February 1, 2012 by Marcus_surfer

[Cwmbran Eira]

To soon to know for definite - models are shifting things here there and everywhere - I remember a situation a few years back - where a low from the south west was coming up towards us into cold air - Derek made a sweeping statement then (within 12-24 hours of this happening) that there'd be no snow - wouldn't come that far north west - well - what did we get up to the following day - snowfest - the front had made it here and dumped one hell of a load of snow - and Derek was full of apologies - it is the worst scenario to forecast this sort of set up and can lead to all sorts of eggs over all sorts of pro forecasters faces - this is the latest for the weekend from the meto - they are being very generalised cause they are not sure either (meto/bbc - all the same)

I remember that. He was out with his ruler measuring the snow and apologising at the same time.We did very well out of that front.

Not sure why he feels he needs to make such a bold statement when news 24 are saying the weekend will be very interesting

[KidCarm]

Hello, first post this winter on here. Loving this weather at the moment just need snow to come along, although I did slide on the way to work this morning despite the council caking the road in grit. I think they want to get rid of as much grit as they can as they havent needed it this year. Not something I want to repeat!

What time is this rain or snow (hoping it's snow) coming in on Saturday?

I'm going to the races at Ffos Las and would prefer it to be dry, wouldn't mind if it started to snow though.

Let's hope the weather models keep backtracking.

[DeepSnow]

Currently 0.0C here, should beat thismornings low of -1C! The weekend is now looking very interesting as many have already said, providing the front doesn't move any further east than being projected, could even do with a slight shift westwards to make sure all in wales get some decent snow! Being its only 2 days away, I hope that not much changes from tonight apart from any upgrades and we finally get the snow we have all been waiting for!

[Phil Barkin]

Much as it pains me to say it, all the signs are that these weekend fronts are not going to make it as far as me in west London. You guys in Wales could be in for a treat assuming the front does not stall in the Irish Sea. Whatever happens the trends are looking for the cold to hang on a lot longer than the beeb are currently predicting :rofl:

[Gavla]

Right guys im trying not too get too excited for the weekend but cant help myself lol. So as things stand what are we to expect? i know the models are going to swap around with different solutions before the event before we have any agreement. What totals, snow first then rain etc just interested on the views of the more experienced on here.