Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 3)

[WalsallWeather]

hi guys just had a look at radar and it does look like most ov west wales could see a few hrs ov snow tonight,also radar shows some heavy stuff down to the side ov cornwall that looks like its heading north lol. some guys down west may be lucky tonight,i hope u get it guys.

You sure do love ramping things up

Looks like it's weakening to me. Don't think any of us will get much now, if we do, none of it will stick.

Some of us may get light snow flurries, but that's about it in my opinion.

Edited January 30, 2012 by CarmarthenshireWeather

[welshwizard]

You sure do love ramping things up

Looks like it's weakening to me. Don't think any of us will get much now, if we do, none of it will stick.

Some of us may get light snow flurries, but that's about it in my opinion.

i would not call that ramping to be honest i was just shocked to see that area down there as i didnt think anywhere was going to see anything,and as for weakening i dont know,i was just thinking ov the guys down west and hoping they get a bit ov snow. also i would imagine its colder tonight so anything that falls could be snow,and the reason i looked was on radio 2 they said snow for parts ov wales.:-)

[welshlightening]

its still snowing here but agin still not sticking only on the mountain

[Snowmadsam]

Hi Guys,

just wondering if ECM or UKMO came off would we be in for a snowfest....

[keithlucky]

To early to say Sam the model thread cant give any guide until Thursday teatime ,we then can work out if the front is going to stall or just move through the UK my guess at this stage we could have a few hours of snow because a very cold pool of air will be sitting on the UK,if it stalls Andy will pass out.

[Snowmadsam]

To early to say Sam the model thread cant give any guide until Thursday teatime ,we then can work out if the front is going to stall or just move through the UK my guess at this stage we could have a few hours of snow because a very cold pool of air will be sitting on the UK,if it stalls Andy will pass out.

Ohh gosh...so will I.... ....so if it does then it would retreat west...so I would get snow then snow again?

[Buzz]

To early to say Sam the model thread cant give any guide until Thursday teatime ,we then can work out if the front is going to stall or just move through the UK my guess at this stage we could have a few hours of snow because a very cold pool of air will be sitting on the UK,if it stalls Andy will pass out.

Depending on the synoptics at that time, it may still be difficult to say with any certainty what will happen. This is an ever changing situation and many times over the years fronts have been forecast to pass over a frigid UK bringing brief snowfall then rain, only for them to stall. And vice versa of course .........

[J10]

Models continue to show uncertainty going forward, although they are edging towards agreement of a westerly (i.e. warmer) incursion this weekend. The question is how far this will push against the block, which ranges from pushing it right back to eastern Scandi (UKMO) or barely pushing it out of the UK (ECM). Ideally we would like even this to move 2 or 3 hundred miles west and then we would have ourselves a battleground.

Even if the atlantic pushes well in this weekend, the signals remain good for a return to cold after (scandi-siberian ridge never really goes away too far; stratospheric warming provides good background signal; ECM model shows return to easterly flow by the middle of next week).

Certainly a chance of the westerlies pushing back, but I dont think the Cold will win easily, ECM today never has the cold too far away.

Perhaps we will know for sure tomorrow. (I doubt it.\0

Most of the lying snow seems to have thawed, ground too wet underneath and too warm. Hopefully some severe frosts would help in that regard.

[andymusic]

To early to say Sam the model thread cant give any guide until Thursday teatime ,we then can work out if the front is going to stall or just move through the UK my guess at this stage we could have a few hours of snow because a very cold pool of air will be sitting on the UK,if it stalls Andy will pass out.

Me - PASS OUT - naahhhhh! - I might ramp a bit mind! - cold is now entrenched - prepare to be frozen to the bones with the chilling temps over the coming days - then as the Atlantic atempts a re-match - watch as it dump loads more snow over all of us - Amen!

Edited January 30, 2012 by andymusic

[whiskers]

is there any likely hood of wales avin snow this week?

[Daniel Miller]

Me - PASS OUT - naahhhhh! - I might ramp a bit mind! - cold is now entrenched - prepare to be frozen to the bones with the chilling temps over the coming days - then as the Atlantic atempts a re-match - watch as it dump loads more snow over all of us - Amen!

hahaa, that devilish face has me wondering if you are serious or just being sarcastic!

If the models upgrade and the front looks like stalling, please be sure to whip out the good ol' NAE snow charts that have 1% chance of verifying at any given time, yet do send me hyperventilating! XD

[mikeocarroll]

is there any likely hood of wales avin snow this week?

Only a low chance over the next 2-3 days, there may or may not be the odd shower or even more organised band coming from the east coast of England, but unlikely to be anything significant.

Friday onwards is very uncertain but there is a chance of frontal snowfall, most likely this would be brief before turning to rain but in an ideal scenario (10-15% probability at the moment?) there could be significant, disruptive and lasting snow.

[welshwizard]

couple of pics from just behind my house but up hill lol

took about 10 pics some big drifts as well

Edited January 30, 2012 by welshwizard

[andymusic]

hahaa, that devilish face has me wondering if you are serious or just being sarcastic!

If the models upgrade and the front looks like stalling, please be sure to whip out the good ol' NAE snow charts that have 1% chance of verifying at any given time, yet do send me hyperventilating! XD

The NAE charts actually did very well over the last 24 hours or so - admittedly the snow didn't stick - but it did snow and in the places forecast - I will keep posting to keep you hyperventilating!

couple of pics from just behind my house but up hill lol

took about 10 pics some big drifts as well

Thanks for those - a little colder and we could have all been seeing scenes like that

[Daniel Miller]

The NAE charts actually did very well over the last 24 hours or so - admittedly the snow didn't stick - but it did snow and in the places forecast - I will keep posting to keep you hyperventilating!

I suppose they did actually.. Was a pleasant surprise to wake up to snow, albeit rather wet and light... Thanks haha

Christ welshwizard, where do you live? o.O Looks like you got some pretty good stuff!!!

[welshwizard]

I suppose they did actually.. Was a pleasant surprise to wake up to snow, albeit rather wet and light... Thanks haha

Christ welshwizard, where do you live? o.O Looks like you got some pretty good stuff!!!

i live right at the top ov nantymoel quite high up and this is the mountain that my house backs onto.

wont let me add any more pics but it was bad up there only 2 mins from my house,was quite bad in my garden and on the road this morn

Edited January 30, 2012 by welshwizard

[TonyH]

No lying snow here, but it was at above 150/ 200m an inch in places.

Went to Cardiff this morning, a little sleet on the way down. Then light sleet and snow in Cardiff this morning, and moderate snow early afternoon. Further light to moderate wet snow in Carmarthenshire driving back this afternoon, this had not accumulated. Still snow lying from this morning above 200m.

[andymusic]

Wintry/snowy showers potential now showing on the pub run GFS 18z from about thursday onwards - then saturday - let's see what this low from the North West wants to do - coming in quickly but will surely get held up a little by the cold air + as it's coming in - rain turning over to snow!

A week away - I know - and likely to change radically

Can't really see the Atlantic winning this one yet!

Edited January 30, 2012 by andymusic

[welshwizard]

so wat is the weather for this week guys? is it just very cold or has it change? last time i dared go in mad model thread it was going to be extream cold this coming sat,but been reading a bit on other threads that it has changed. so whats the truth guys. i wont hold you to it lol

[andymusic]

so wat is the weather for this week guys? is it just very cold or has it change? last time i dared go in mad model thread it was going to be extream cold this coming sat,but been reading a bit on other threads that it has changed. so whats the truth guys. i wont hold you to it lol

flippin freezing cold - snow showers from thursday onwards - frontal snow potential for late weekend into Monday!

[J10]

In Summary, turning colder from east (Certainty high). High starts to sink Thurs/Fri (poss reasonable), possibly allowing SW winds to push in for a time?, however this is very uncertain, and even if this does happen, decent chance of cold pushing back very quickly later.

To see the uncertainty see the Meto, GFS and ECM T+144 charts.

In summary in my opinion, better charts for cold than yesterday, but not as good as Saturday.

(now edited)

[keithlucky]

Yes Jackone very cold .

[DeepSnow]

A lot of people in the model thread saying now its not looking like it will get that mild over the weekend with the cold air coming back quite quick! What do you think are chances are of having some battleground snowfall over the weekend?

[horacegoesskiing]

Battleground battleground battleground!!

Of all the atlantic v east battlegrounds in the last 15-30 years or so, where is the most likely place that they occur on average??

Would our area be the most likely place for these events? or perhaps further toward the midlands?

If only we could just get some real decent cold and snow longevity, yet our island on the edge of the monstrous atlantic is not condusive to that....... the sahara desert is going to be colder than places in wales at the weekend!! i mean ....... COME ON!!!!!, you must say that that is just not fair!!

Edited January 31, 2012 by horacegoesskiing

[mikeocarroll]

Re: Horace & Deepsnow, there's simply no predicting the location/strength of a battleground situation in advance. The models are predicting a breakdown with warmer air moving in from the west (though even this is uncertain) but this could blow the block away in next to no time in which case precipitation would be rain more or less straight away; or it could be much slower and there could be hours of snow before turning to rain. Alternatively the block could still "win" leading to heavy snow and no rain, or possibly to no rain or snow if the fronts don't get this far east. Also the warmer air could move in under high pressure (Azores ridge moving gradually over us) or from atlantic depressions - the latter would mean more precipitation and the former would mean far less.

Basically what I'm saying is that there's no way of knowing. In 48hours we may know more or we may not.