Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 3)

[keithlucky]

Hello, first post this winter on here. Loving this weather at the moment just need snow to come along, although I did slide on the way to work this morning despite the council caking the road in grit. I think they want to get rid of as much grit as they can as they havent needed it this year. Not something I want to repeat!

What time is this rain or snow (hoping it's snow) coming in on Saturday?

I'm going to the races at Ffos Las and would prefer it to be dry, wouldn't mind if it started to snow though.

Let's hope the weather models keep backtracking.

Hope the frost covers work i hope because its the biggest meeting pity to lose it to the weather.

[DeepSnow]

Right guys im trying not too get too excited for the weekend but cant help myself lol. So as things stand what are we to expect? i know the models are going to swap around with different solutions before the event before we have any agreement. What totals, snow first then rain etc just interested on the views of the more experienced on here.

Totals we won't know untill tomorrow night at best i would think, its still too far out to say i would have thought! Currently we stand a fairly decent chance going in tonights model run, though as every this could be the complete opposite by the 06z tomorrow! However it is good that the UKMO and ECM are in agreement and the Fax shows the front over us! I would say caution is needed and don't get too excites yet, seeing as how they models have changed since thismorning, they could still change back!

[loadsa]

I am in Stockport tonight with work and I caught the end of the local news and weather. They were taking the proverbial out of the woman doing the weather because she would not commit on the weekend and they reckon she was walking funny because of sitting on the fence. She said it could snow or it could rain.

Anyway I should see the snow on Monday flying to holland with work for a couple of days

[KidCarm]

Hope the frost covers work i hope because its the biggest meeting pity to lose it to the weather.

Yeh cross fingers, they had to cancel it a couple of years ago because it was covered in snow. It's the only fixture to be shown on channel 4 too I think so they really need it to go ahead this time.

[Buzz]

Must admit that I'm not getting good vibes for Wales this weekend regarding snow - the further east you are and the higher up the better, but even then I feel any snow will turn to rain, especially in the west.

Still, that feeling is based on the latest model output from the ECM and UKMO and the predictions do keep changing - if the front stalls over Wales then things look better, but even then we really do need a cold feed of air and it looks like we'll be in a westerly by then. The south east of England could do better if the front gets to them, as they could still be in an easterly or south easterly feed.

[keithlucky]

Seen many snow events with a S easterly feed with The ECM Wales could maybe be very snowy come Saturday afternoon.

[nwales]

Given the fact that warm fronts generally produce light precipitation, the fact that the pressure is high and the general disappointment of last weekend I'm not expecting much even if the cold wins out in Wales... Positive or what? Ha!

Current temp: -4.2c looks like this winter's record of -4.7c will be broken soon

[Buzz]

Seen many snow events with a S easterly feed with The ECM Wales could maybe be very snowy come Saturday afternoon.

So have I, but based on the current synoptics we won't have much of a south easterly (or even southerly) before it turns westerly.

Still, it's a few days away and could yet change for the better.

[keithlucky]

So have I, but based on the current synoptics we won't have much of a south easterly (or even southerly) before it turns westerly.

Still, it's a few days away and could yet change for the better.

Ecm would be BINGO for Wales with this cold air in place.

[Buzz]

Ecm would be BINGO for Wales with this cold air in place.

Only if the front stalls over us.

[mickeyflyn]

i just watched two very conflicting forecasts on the bbc,one from Derek brockway who said rain for the weekend with the odd snowflake mixed in and one from the bbc who said that they were uncertain about exactly what would happen yet ??

[keithlucky]

Only if the front stalls over us.

True but HP over Europe moving west Fax looks good aswell. Heres hoping.

[ourson]

Met office hedging their bets somewhat on all forecasts apart from tomorrow (which is cold and dry - no s**t sherlock). They are clearly expecting a cold feb but are not committing to anything concrete from friday onwards. Lets just say i'm keeping an eye on things......

[welshwizard]

Would that be the blizzard of January 1982 you're referring to, welshwizard? It's the one weather event I'd pay anything to go back in time and live through, and the snow that everything gets compared to in these parts. "Oh, this 8 inch dusting is nothing, in 1982 the drifts reached the upstairs window and I was frozen to my toilet seat for a week" etc etc.

Some pics from the local area:

http://www.alangeorg...lMorris_Adj.jpg

http://treharrisdist...w_1882_high.jpg

http://www.tredegar....ctures/snow_82/

http://www.flickr.co...ags/caerphilly/

Or it could be 1978 you're referring to.

http://www.opobs.co....1978winter.html

Sorry for the number of links but I thought we'd find them interesting!

Edit: Whoa

http://www.flickr.co...l-18501034@N00/

it was the 82 winter just forgot how old i am lol

[andymusic]

GFS 18z - coming into line with the other models slowly - more snow - slightly further west again - some snow for Wales - but not a direct hit just yet - but if the models keep re-evaluating and moving things westward - we could have a direct hit and loads and loads of the white stuff - looking good - certainly much better than 24 hours ago!

According to the models generally - the event should start just before the rugby match on saturday - could be an interesting game for more reasons than one!

Edited February 1, 2012 by andymusic

[nwales]

My record low temperature for this winter has just been broken.

-4.8c wondering how low it will go? Derek thought -8c was possible in Llanrhaeadr ym Mochnant, about 10 miles from here.

[keithlucky]

Latest outputs are very good stalled fronts -10 uppers very good chance of snow ,one thing no u turn please.

Edited February 1, 2012 by keithlucky

[welshwizard]

i got a gut feeling we may do very well out ov this on sat,the reason is personal but that person loved snow and i can just see him sorting it out for us.

it sure is cold tonight guys and if this cold keeps flowing in we could be landed. be nice to have a few weeks ov cold and some snow and then the most fantastic summer.i think a few people be nervous for the next 2 days.

[andymusic]

GFS 18z and for the booby prize - the front stalls and comes back at us bringing even more snow for Monday also! - it's looking extremely good folks for the mother of all snowfall! :smilz38: - The cold air ain't gonna be going far from our shores and if the Atlantic wants to come and dump it's precip all over us - it's very welcome to - we welcome it with open arms - come to Wales - great place to enjoy the weather! :smilz38:

Can't not back this up without a lovely chart for you peeps

Edited February 1, 2012 by andymusic

[Buzz]

I admire your optimism Andy, but let's wait and see - we don't want to get our hopes up given the current very changeable model predictions.

And yes, I'd love a good dump of snow, but there's nothing worse than expecting it and it not coming to pass.

[CLH the red dragon]

It's all about miles. We have a planet that is massive, and this weekend we're looking for differences of what, about 100 miles?

It's there to play for. Interesting times. Even the temp differences are marked. Could be 2 degrees (and a continuance) in Cardiff and 8 in Pembs.

[Blackjack]

Ummm deja vu. Weren't we getting this excited last week??

[Buzz]

Exactly. With my IMBY hat on, and despite my 100m elevation, I'd say I'm in a fairly lousy position for any long lasting snow this weekend. Hence why I say the further east you are (and the higher up) the better.

But let's see.

[J10]

Ummm deja vu. Weren't we getting this excited last week??

If we had last weeks event with the cold air in place, the snow amounts would have been far greater. Also in many places the snow failed to stick because of the warm ground, however with the freezing ovenight weather, the ground will be frozen by the weekend.

Saying that of course, it all depends where the frontal boundary is, the current thoughts are still too far east for that much snow in Wales, the Midlands eastwards remain favoured spots, however there has been a massive westward correction in the past 24 hrs and another one could put in the firing line, but we are not there yet.

[keithlucky]

GFS 18z and for the booby prize - the front stalls and comes back at us bringing even more snow for Monday also! - it's looking extremely good folks for the mother of all snowfall! :smilz38: - The cold air ain't gonna be going far from our shores and if the Atlantic wants to come and dump it's precip all over us - it's very welcome to - we welcome it with open arms - come to Wales - great place to enjoy the weather! :smilz38:

Can't not back this up without a lovely chart for you peeps

GFS 18z and for the booby prize - the front stalls and comes back at us bringing even more snow for Monday also! - it's looking extremely good folks for the mother of all snowfall! :smilz38: - The cold air ain't gonna be going far from our shores and if the Atlantic wants to come and dump it's precip all over us - it's very welcome to - we welcome it with open arms - come to Wales - great place to enjoy the weather! :smilz38:

Can't not back this up without a lovely chart for you peeps

Just got this feeling the front wont make it across the border Andy same as last week a lot colder with heavier precipitation.