Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 3)

[Gavla]

This does look like its going to be a slushy mess even if it starts as snow i cant stand it reverting back to rain and slush yuck!. Im guessing theres going to have to be some drastic changes for it to be an 'all snow' event which is unlikely for our area so close to the event or am i wrong?. Throught lurking in the model thread havnt got the guts to post there yet lol, any way i heard someone mention a bigger event for the west tuesday 9 - 12 inches locally !! Hmm yes please what are the chances of this ?

[WalsallWeather]

This does look like its going to be a slushy mess even if it starts as snow i cant stand it reverting back to rain and slush yuck!. Im guessing theres going to have to be some drastic changes for it to be an 'all snow' event which is unlikely for our area so close to the event or am i wrong?. Throught lurking in the model thread havnt got the guts to post there yet lol, any way i heard someone mention a bigger event for the west tuesday 9 - 12 inches locally !! Hmm yes please what are the chances of this ?

Who mentioned that?! Not heard anything like that myself. All I heard is that it'll get milder, especially here!

[bradymk]

Still looking though I will be too far west here in Pembrokeshire. However, looking more and more promising every run. Currently -2.7c, brrrrrr

[CardiffStorm]

I think this is definitely going to be a snow leading to rain event.

[Ukwoody]

- I'm going for more snow than Derek is going for over Wales - we'll soon see whose right and not so eh!

LOL, nothing new there then Andy! Always look on the positive mate

Woody

Edited February 2, 2012 by ukwoody

[Backtrack]

Will it snow in Cardiff?

[keithlucky]

Latest Fax shows the front 50m further west central areas are now favorite for the heaviest snow we need further west movement to increase and prolong the event. The damn line shows at least 5hrs of snow across Wales before it turns back to sleet in low lying areas.The amount of precipitation is hard to say possible 2cms to 5cm.Easterly then digs back with very cold weather returns Monday.

Edited February 2, 2012 by keithlucky

[cheshire snow]

Who mentioned that?! Not heard anything like that myself. All I heard is that it'll get milder, especially here!

its what the ECM was showing this evening

C.S

[Gavla]

Who mentioned that?! Not heard anything like that myself. All I heard is that it'll get milder, especially here!

Kold weather is guy who said it, page 33 apparently thats what ecm at 144 is showing. It has probably very low chance of verifying i just like reading bigger snow event than this weekend for the west to be onest lol.

[nwales]

Temperature here is static due to cloud cover: -0.9c

[keithlucky]

What is unusual about this spell of weather is how high the rainfall total will be for February considering how cold its going to be.The question .is not if its going to snow but how much and when, GP talked about heavier snow from a shortwave Tuesday possible 6 to 9inc another snow event Thursday as well so lick your lips and enjoy.

[TonyH]

I seem to be in the coldest place in Wales.

-6.2c currently! I was expecting around -10c in my guide so that's working out nicely.

[J10]

But don't DAM's have to be below 528? deffos think this is a no go now...

In Situations like this that is not that relevant.

[SLAMMER]

already -3 in central cardiff this evening.

[TonyH]

Rainfall wise, February should get off to a relatively dry start, with mostly high pressure in control, and although fronts do affect us I would expect them to be on the weak side due to this high pressure.

[andymusic]

It's showing on the wunderground ecm snowfall chrt here:- http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

Go down the page to set up ECM model then map type = snowfall, then click on forecast

watch out towards the end of that animation for tuesday! - more heavy snow!

[J10]

So would the latest fax chart increast our chances of this being a mostly snow event for Wales?

It certainly improves snow chances, winds are from a NW direction, and we are not in the warm sector, at that point, the warm sector is very important, as in the area, temps and pressures are not that conducive for snow. If we miss the warm sector our chances of snow improve.

Temps look pretty close to freezing for much of Wales, and this has turned from a non event to a maybe event. A complete contrast from last week which was rain to snow, this week is snow to rain, but perhaps back to snow as the cold front pushes through later.

It also looks colder for next week, so if we miss out on this one, more chances await.

[ourson]

Will it snow in Cardiff?

You forgot the LOL!!

[Snowmadsam]

I still don't understand how I miss out with these uppers?

[DeepSnow]

Thanks Jackone!

Look at this for 141hrs from now (the pinpoint being where i live) and wales are in the sweet spot if that was to somehow come off!

[Snowmadsam]

Thanks Jackone!

Look at this for 141hrs from now (the pinpoint being where i live) and wales are in the sweet spot if that was to somehow come off!

I'm not

[nwales]

I seem to be in the coldest place in Wales.

-6.2c currently! I was expecting around -10c in my guide so that's working out nicely.

I was expecting to get close to -10c tonight after breaking the -7c mark last night. This pesky cloud has put paid to that! All the forecasts I've seen have talked of clear skies grr

[ourson]

The METO are going for milder weather coming in Monday and Tuesday, so I'm getting a bit confused. I don't know if I'll be sunbathing or snowboarding atm.

[WalsallWeather]

I'm not

Neither am I!

Time for us to get our sun cream out whilst the rest freeze..

*Pretending not to be jealous*

[CLH the red dragon]

The METO are going for milder weather coming in Monday and Tuesday, so I'm getting a bit confused. I don't know if I'll be sunbathing or snowboarding atm.

That's been downgraded constantly since yesterday, temps were going to be about 6-7 on Saturday rising to 10 on Monday.

As you can see Saturday is still cold and Monday is just mildER rather than particularly mild.

I'd wager we'll stil be seeing maxes of 4 come Sunday/Monday.