Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 3)

[welshwizard]

right i have just had a good read on other threads and most think as from early this morn that london etc will have loads of snow on sat,but as i read further towards now,some are saying that it could stay colder over wales and then maybe wales will see snow, also some ov the posters think that things could change right upto the event. seems to me that anywhere could get anything and just got to wait and see what falls from the sky. but the folks ov london etc are quite bullish about a foot ov snow. i myself have seen these models change their knickers every few hrs lately so sit tight and maybe it be wales having a foot ov snow lol. that be funny wouldnt it ha ha

Edited February 2, 2012 by welshwizard

[worldairgroup]

hmmm damn doom and gloom! i have officially given up again.

[andymusic]

hmmm damn doom and gloom! i have officially given up again.

given up what - smoking!

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales :

Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 1200 Sat 04 Feb to 2359 Sat 04 Feb

The potential for saturday is amazing + as this situation develops it could upgrade even more - don't know what all the doom and gloom is about!

[worldairgroup]

given up what - smoking!

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales :

Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Swansea, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan & Wrexham valid from 1200 Sat 04 Feb to 2359 Sat 04 Feb

The potential for saturday is amazing + as this situation develops it could upgrade even more - don't know what all the doom and gloom is about!

oh no not done that yet andy with all this stres about snow LOL!!! he he he - for some reason my met office links are not working so had not seen latest warnings!!

[DeepSnow]

Got the same e-mail from the meto though they do seem to have a problem as their warnings currently aren't loading. However we have 24hrs in which we could see a continued trend for the west shift in which we would be much more likely to see a mostly snow event, away from the far west coast prehaps. It could still turn out on the day that the front doesn't make it as far east and a fair bit of wales will end up with some decent snow, this is a very knife edge situation and currently could go either way.

[welshwizard]

i think this will fall as snow guys over wales i cant see this freezing cold going as quick as they think.

[Cheshire Freeze]

i think this will fall as snow guys over wales i cant see this freezing cold going as quick as they think.

I have seen many a scenario where the cold has been blasted out of the way in no time at all. So to pin hopes on that technicality is rather hopeful. SW, WALES, NW ENGLAND etc are not in favourable places for snow (staying as snow) at the time being. Unfortunately

Edited February 2, 2012 by CreweCold

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I have seen many a scenario where the cold has been blasted out of the way in no time at all. So to pin hopes on that technicality is rather hopeful. SW, WALES, NW ENGLAND etc are not in favourable places for snow (stsying as snow) at the time being. Unfortunately

especially nowadays, reminds me a bit (although not mentioned by anyone else) of the tame breakdown on 27th Dec 2010, intense cold, the atlantic strolled through without a fight

[CLH the red dragon]

I have seen many a scenario where the cold has been blasted out of the way in no time at all. So to pin hopes on that technicality is rather hopeful. SW, WALES, NW ENGLAND etc are not in favourable places for snow (staying as snow) at the time being. Unfortunately

They're 100-150 miles out in terms of yesterday's models. Perhaps less going by today's.

In terms of global forecasting that's still all to play for.

especially nowadays, reminds me a bit (although not mentioned by anyone else) of the tame breakdown on 27th Dec 2010, intense cold, the atlantic strolled through without a fight

That's certainly a good point though, I remember how hard that was supposed to be. Snow was gone within days. I don't think that pressure cell was quite as large mind.

[andymusic]

GFS & GME seem to be holding the front up even more on their 12z runs - this is looking better again for us in Wales!

Edited February 2, 2012 by andymusic

[DeepSnow]

Yes looking much better on this run for Wales, with a bit of luck now there will not be much in the way of change from now on, keeping the system roughly where it is or slightly further west so the west coast have a better chance also.

[Buzz]

Yup, looking a bit more promising - still needs to be further west though (says I living in the south west) and make the beggar stall. That'll do.

[welshwizard]

I have seen many a scenario where the cold has been blasted out of the way in no time at all. So to pin hopes on that technicality is rather hopeful. SW, WALES, NW ENGLAND etc are not in favourable places for snow (staying as snow) at the time being. Unfortunately

same can be said the other way mind to be honest, and to be honest the way things have been chopping and changing lately with the models anything could happen it was only 48 hrs ago and everyone in models thread said its over and now some are back to saying feb is going to be very very cold. its the weather and things change for the good and the bad. and as i said a bit earlier i dont need snow this weekend but still think it could shift west and wlaes could do quite well but on the other hand it could move east and only a small area ov east england get any sort ov white stuff.

[welshwizard]

people are saying it has shifted further west on the last run so another one or two shifts and wales could very well be in line for the white stuff,i just hope it be after 5 oclock on sat.

[Bonjangle]

Uk severe weather warnings on Meto are down at the momment ? i wonder why ....

[WalsallWeather]

The models will change with every new one released up to the event now. Wouldn't be surprised if we have a warning just for precaution incase. Nobody can be 100% sure where the snow will fall and where rain will fall so don't get your hopes up too much just because of a warning for snow.. Although it is obviously better to have a warning than no warning!

With all that said, we COULD be in line for a lot of snow IF the cold can hold out over us BUT I personally cannot see it holding out for the whole time, any snow will turn to rain in the end, in my opinion. However, I am not a professional nor am I even experienced at this stuff.. All this is just my opinion!

[DeepSnow]

Im a bit confused, they are saying a shift west and one even said a wintery wales in the model thread, yet the gfs precip charts show the front still stalling over central and eastern england with them getting the snow?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Im a bit confused, they are saying a shift west and one even said a wintery wales in the model thread, yet the gfs precip charts show the front still stalling over central and eastern england with them getting the snow?

No I was replying to a member called Wintry Wales

[DeepSnow]

No I was replying to a member called Wintry Wales

ah ok my bad, wishful thinking The front still seems quite far east on those ppn charts for us to have a chance? Think I had my hopes up a bit too much lol but then again i am getting tired of the lack of snow <_<

Edited February 2, 2012 by DeepSnow

[Snowmadsam]

Let's see what ECM and fax say fingers crossed for west and stall trend

[andymusic]

And into next week - the cold is hanging on in there - further fronts bumping up against it - more snow - chances dotted all over the place!

[Daniel Miller]

And into next week - the cold is hanging on in there - further fronts bumping up against it - more snow - chances dotted all over the place!

yes but they all seem to be too far west? :/ Just looks like we get rain, a lot of rain..

[dingdong]

As andy said, it's all to play for. If the low stays where Ukmo had it most of Wales will stay snow, this will the increase chances of a second substantial snowfall midweek as Ukmo 144 moves a tasty low se. We need the cold frigid air in place fir this to happen, otherwise we get to watch England enjoy the snow twice when we get our brollies out.

Looking more and more promising as each run passes tho

DD

[benb]

Latest NAE...

As it stands, I think that snow'll turn pretty quickly back to rain, away from the mountains...

As others have said- time for changes yet.

[DeepSnow]

However as posted in the Model thread from the GEM we have this showing there is a chance it could stay mostly as snow if it came off!! (how likely this is i am not sure)