Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 1

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Clouding over from the east here. Radar suggests it'll just be a light salt and shake if anything at all, but hey ho, even a wee sprinkle would be nice.

[blitzen]

Desperately trying to deflate the Black Isle's snowshield but without success. Snow haters' paradise for the next week.

NFCOTCO.

None on the 12zs either. Ah well, onwards and hopefully upwards!

[edo]

You remember that! I thought only I would remember a night like that.

It was very exciting watching the mass yellow blob coming in from the North Sea and temperatures were sub zero so we knew it would snow and lie.

Started about 9pm until midnight and deposited around 6 - 8".

Oh yes legendary evening best radar watch ever....only wish knew about this thread then... I went to bed 2 am and awoke at 5am to thundersnow and stayed up.....ended up working in the house fielding crisis weather related calls and being called into work 6am on the monday... I made it in at 10.45am as took 4 hours to dig the cul de sac out .....off to play fives tonight so no model or weather watching till after 10pm so heres hoping for surprises... not hopeful on output but u never know

[A Winter's Tale]

Snow potential in coming days looks low, scandi hi disapears, no greenie hi, no cold spell. Someone cheer me up please

[over_the_rainbow]

Been on the MT thread and I have come away clueless as to what on earth is going on - weather wise or model wise.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The NMM and NAE suggests showers will hang around the east coast all night before pushing west in the morning. Background factors are still favourable for cold, even if the easterly type thing breaks down by Friday, and it looks like coming from the northeast when it eventually sets in, so NR will be very happy!

Showers still moving at snail's pace towards us...

[Isolated Frost]

Snow potential in coming days looks low, scandi hi disapears, no greenie hi, no cold spell. Someone cheer me up please

Expect that the NWP is incorrect and an eventually retrogressive scandi block takes hold.

Also, is this not a cold spell??

[LomondSnowstorm]

Expect that the NWP is incorrect and an eventually retrogressive scandi block takes hold.

Also, is this not a cold spell??

Yeah, it's 2/-1C here with an easterly wind and showers on the radar - seems like a cold spell to me, if not perhaps a classic. The bar raised by Decembers 2009 and 2010 will be almost impossible to emulate for up here.

[lorenzo]

Yep it's a bit difficult to figure things out just now. A wee problem of not being able to get charts to load ! Wetterzentrale and Meteociel need some coolant on their servers.. The gist of things as far as I can tell, without seeing 12z charts is that the natural disappointment from last nights ( and this weekends) runs continues.

The monster 4000 mile trail Siberia / Mongolia / China easterly has decided not to visit our shores having been stopped just short on it's last stop west by a resurgent Azores ridge pumping up some more warm air. Leaving the UK in a kind of no mans land.

The potential for this is that we get a snow filled battleground breakdown as the Atlantic meets the cold pool which is already moving in from Europe, although without charts difficult to see where when precisely. Also the added confusion is that the Scandi high is a forecasting nightmare and every trough interacting with it causes miniscule permutations and variances which are then exaggerated later in model runs, hence people calling FI for the technical short term at 72-96 hours.

Today the cold is well in place you can definitely feel the influence of those uppers, as LS mentioned that trough behind the 'dead' front ( no idea what the technical name is ! Sat rep suggest upper level occlusion?) is looking promising on the Fax.

A decent flow of cold air and showers however grainy and light pepping up more radar watching this evening

Found it..

Excellent view of the decay and disorganisation on the Sat Loop from about 12:00 today.

Edited January 30, 2012 by lorenzo

[Hawesy]

Yeah, it's 2/-1C here with an easterly wind and showers on the radar - seems like a cold spell to me, if not perhaps a classic. The bar raised by Decembers 2009 and 2010 will be almost impossible to emulate for up here.

Yes absolutely, the last two winters have done exactly that - expectation levels are through the roof. I'm always highly skeptical about easterlies and today illustrates why: it's currently a +3.7c and drizzly here. Yes uppers are quite cold, and yes dew points are below freezing but mixing off the relatively warm sea means a wintry mix near the coast. I realise I'm in one of the least favoured parts of eastern Scotland when it comes to marginality but I can't help feel anyone with expectations of a widespread lowland snow event in central/eastern Scotland between now and Thursday is likely to be disappointed. Of course, I'll be delighted to be proved wrong!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

snowing here.

Wee shower passing over.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yes absolutely, the last two winters have done exactly that - expectation levels are through the roof. I'm always highly skeptical about easterlies and today illustrates why: it's currently a +3.7c and drizzly here. Yes uppers are quite cold, and yes dew points are below freezing but mixing off the relatively warm sea means a wintry mix near the coast. I realise I'm in one of the least favoured parts of eastern Scotland when it comes to marginality but I can't help feel anyone with expectations of a widespread lowland snow event in central/eastern Scotland between now and Thursday is likely to be disappointed. Of course, I'll be delighted to be proved wrong!

I think you've got a point there. What were your snow depths like in the last two winters out of interest? I recall you had some but probably not on the scale of inland areas.

Radar taking a while to update, might just have to take a look outside. Dewpoint here looks fine, temperature fine too. Hopefully it holds as such through the night and precipitation pep up a bit.

[LomondSnowstorm]

First shower just passed, a bit sleety and graupelly, but brighter echoes have started appearing on the radar. Intensity is required, that's the most crucial thing at this stage.

[sn0wman]

First shower just passed, a bit sleety and graupelly, but brighter echoes have started appearing on the radar. Intensity is required, that's the most crucial thing at this stage.

Woohoo! Hope it reaches me!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Woohoo! Hope it reaches me!

I reckon By-Tor or even SS will be better suppliers for you to be honest, wind a bit too much southeast to reach you.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Maybe 1 mm of lying snow here.

Quite a depth from the perspective of a common wood ant.

[Ross B]

Surprised to say it... wee snow flurry here!

[A Winter's Tale]

Expect that the NWP is incorrect and an eventually retrogressive scandi block takes hold.

Also, is this not a cold spell??

Ah yes, I think I meant no cold spell beyond next week! oops.

Very cold outside right now, and even if we don't get snow I'll settle for nice, sunny, cold conditions. I'm happy enough with the snow I've had so far this winter and it's been one of the better winters of the past 10 year - well, at least it's better than more than a couple of winters!

The thing is that with December, I've exceeded my goal for any winter which is not to have a repeat of those terrible winters such as 2006/2007. So back in early December I had already got an event that made sure that this winter wouldn't be a disaster and an equally good event soon followed aswell as many other snow events so really this winter has been succesful. But in getting that target reached so early in the winter meant that the next step was to have a cold snap on the same lines as previous winters. I know that these events are rare, but as far as I'm concerned I've already reached the target for this winter and any other winter. I've felt just a little alarmed by this cold snap, as I felt that it would be our only chance getting a decent cold snap and at the moment it looks like it's going to be a dry and short affair - coupled with some model runs showing little potential beyond this. However, there seems to be more to winter weather than what meets the eye from the models. I'll keep an eye on retrogression to Greenland!

AWT

[Norrance]

Yes absolutely, the last two winters have done exactly that - expectation levels are through the roof. I'm always highly skeptical about easterlies and today illustrates why: it's currently a +3.7c and drizzly here. Yes uppers are quite cold, and yes dew points are below freezing but mixing off the relatively warm sea means a wintry mix near the coast. I realise I'm in one of the least favoured parts of eastern Scotland when it comes to marginality but I can't help feel anyone with expectations of a widespread lowland snow event in central/eastern Scotland between now and Thursday is likely to be disappointed. Of course, I'll be delighted to be proved wrong!

Similar here so far but a bit colder at 2.7c. The light and SE wind direction doesn't help with the sea modification. Did see some snow yesterday on the hill road between Crieff and Aberfeldy and this morning near Laurencekirk in a heavy localised shower that covered the road, at least for a while.

The MT is in despair again I see today so I will keep clear for a while at least.

[Zerouali lives]

Yeah even at 5 miles inland at 100m elevation the showers that passed through at 5pm were rain / graupel that just left the ground wet.

Temperatures in Aberdeen between 2.5 and 4.0 and that just won't do it, even with low dew points.

North Sea warmth is killing us

Edited January 30, 2012 by Zerouali lives

[Benvironment]

Very fine drizzly snow here for the last hour or so.....but not amounting to anything.

[LomondSnowstorm]

It does at the moment look like one of TWS' typical cloudy easterlies, with too much modification meaning precipitation is lacking in intensity. Oh well, could improve later on

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/30/basis12/ukuk/t850/12013018_3012.gif

[Ross B]

Snow has got a bit heavier with a light dusting now

[Hawesy]

I think you've got a point there. What were your snow depths like in the last two winters out of interest? I recall you had some but probably not on the scale of inland areas.

Last winter I had a maximum depth of around 9cm (or just under 4"). A lot of the shower activity was in the form of graupel which helped keep down accumulation. The most amazing thing was the number of mornings with lying snow cover, 28, which is incredible for my location (bear in mind three of the winters I've been here since 2005 have been completely without lying snow - including this one, to date!). The most snow I've seen since moving here was in fact Feb 2009 (11cm) - lowest temp I've recorded -6.3c (December 2010).

[sn0wman]

Looks like the showers might just hold together until they get to me. Temp has risen to 2c though.