Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 1

[thebigyin]

How did you know?

hah - wishing more than knowing. He does make reference to it so fingers crossed!

Showers, though weak, do seem to be pepping up a wee bit - hoping to read some snow reports when i log on in the morning...wont be any from me though unless the temp drops off significantly. Unless it is a screamign easterly then think we are bu@@ered 'ere.

[A Winter's Tale]

The cold never leaves SE England! The Spannish will be flocking to Scotland in their thousands to enjoy some good old fashioned Scottish Winter warmth.

Has there been a pole shift?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Is there an increase in the flow from the easterly?

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/01/30/basis18/ukuk/uv10/12013021_3018.gif

Well spotted. That'll be what's causing the mixing of air at surface level. Should hopefully settle down soonish. Still 3C here, showers pushing in....

[A Winter's Tale]

The Northerly - good gracious! High pressure in the mid atlantic, blues in Scotland, greens in Spain and N Africa - Back to normal I assume...

[edo]

Is there an increase in the flow from the easterly?

I dont know but wind average 4 knots here and coming from North????

[A Winter's Tale]

Who ever said Scotland was cold! SNP should be advertising our carribean beaches in the outer hebrides.

[LomondSnowstorm]

hah - wishing more than knowing. He does make reference to it so fingers crossed!

Showers, though weak, do seem to be pepping up a wee bit - hoping to read some snow reports when i log on in the morning...wont be any from me though unless the temp drops off significantly. Unless it is a screamign easterly then think we are bu@@ered 'ere.

Yeah, Aberdeen is simply too far from the continent to get a cold southeasterly flow except in exceptional circumstances. Even here we're liable to seeing mixing e.g. now! Cold pool looks pretty decent overnight, not as deep as what we'll be getting Wednesday onwards but should still have some effect.

[A Winter's Tale]

Scotland is trapped between the two highs. At least the Atlantic is blocked.

[edo]

The cold never leaves SE England! The Spannish will be flocking to Scotland in their thousands to enjoy some good old fashioned Scottish Winter warmth.

Has there been a pole shift?

astonishing....these are incredible charts even if the wrong kind.....how will barca cope on a freezing snowy midweek trip to malaga

[A Winter's Tale]

Another run and again we are left without a clue. We know that next week will be cold but plenty of questions are to be answered for beyond the end of next week. I've seen enough runs to have some sort of an idea that the Scandi Hi is just not going to work given the synoptics of the NH so I'm now looking for heights in the mid-atlantic and greenland.

I'd love to hear some analysis from LS and Lorenzo.

[edo]

Another run and again we are left without a clue. We know that next week will be cold but plenty of questions are to be answered for beyond the end of next week. I've seen enough runs to have some sort of an idea that the Scandi Hi is just not going to work given the synoptics of the NH so I'm now looking for heights in the mid-atlantic and greenland.

I'd love to hear some analysis from LS and Lorenzo.

there maybe catching flights to SE England new snow capital of Uk.....or maybe lost in the MT...im going for a look

[lorenzo]

Watching Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler, one of those films you get sucked into having had no intention of watching. Kind of similar to anytime you load NOGAPS..

[blitzen]

I would gladly settle for half of this!

.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2012-01/29/c_131380709.htm

Edited January 30, 2012 by Blitzen

[edo]

Watching Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler, one of those films you get sucked into having had no intention of watching. Kind of similar to anytime you load NOGAPS..

lol i call it sh!.t film syndrome....u start watching a film and sometimes you dont even like it but you still must watch till the end......I used to regularly say to the guys in work im knackered today got I got sh!.t film syndrome was up till 2am....invariably a film starring Brian Dennehy as a cop....

oh dear the MT going all wrong as the fax as early as T96 says end of the cold

Edited January 30, 2012 by edodfc

[edo]

I would gladly settle for half of this!

.

http://news.xinhuane...c_131380709.htm

right now blitzy i woul take a tenth of it

[LomondSnowstorm]

Final post of the night:

The Met Office tonight has decided to fully back its UKMO model, which calls for a full-on tropical breakdown by Friday. Currently this has virtually no support from any other model or ensemble run (other than the delightful NOGAPS) but still they use this. While they stress 'uncertainty', the message I've heard so much from their tv forecasts is 'dry'. In fact apparently easterly winds are always dry according to one forecaster because 'they travel across land to reach us'. Aside from the rapid lowering of sea levels causing the North Sea to dry up, this forecast is based on said slightly dodgy model output coming to fruition. If either the ECM or GFS are right, there will be at least a few snow showers about down the east coast of Scotland on Thursday, but the snow risk for the southeast in particular would be immense on Thursday night/Friday with -15C uppers. In fact, they're doing the 'convection denial' thing again on tv, simply ignoring the showers heading into Kent at the moment on the tv forecasts. The met office have a history of failing to recognise that cold uppers + easterly winds = snow showers and there is the potential for them to wake up with egg on their face in a few days time, not just from us northern whingers but for an area who's ability to cope with snow rivals that of a cat to deal with a hot bath. On the other hand, they might be right....

Still above 3C here, going to head off now and hopefully it'll be a bit whiter outside by morning.

LS

[Michael Kaii]

Looks like the Cold spell is going to be a bust! :/ bbc are forcasting 8 Degrees on saturday

if the cold air in europe was like a big wall a would glady catch a plane to Wherever it is and push it to scotland!

if am Wrong Correct me and im Sorry if it is! :L

[Northernlights]

2c here this morning and partially cloudy.Was frostier yesterday afternoon at 4.00pm.

[Cheggers]

2C here and still the dusting we got last night.

[Hawesy]

+3.6c, cloudy, SEly breeze at 18mph. More of the same to come I'm afraid!

[Poots]

2c here currently, very cloudy. No frost, no snow.

[blitzen]

Good moaning. 2.6c/-6.1c ESE and cloudy. Scrambled eggs anyone? Rather underwhelming/conflicting model runs again this morning I see! I think perhaps GP may be correct in suggesting ignoring all the operationals at the moment. He does seem very confident in predicting a possible snowy breakdown with Europe remaining in the freezer. Things appear then to improve for us joining in, with the AO turning very, very negative, an Arctic high and Scandanavian troughing.

There does appear to have been quite a lot of warm air mixing looking at the 850s which is the cause of our temps not dropping? As far as I can see, it is perhaps Thursday before they go below zero?

HC: Point taken I think regarding RJS. It really astounded me to see such two conflicting posts in the MT yesterday!

.

Edited January 31, 2012 by Blitzen

[Hairy Celt]

2C, mostly cloudy, no frost, feels raw with just a slight breeze; the sort of day of day where you scurry to the shops and back with your collar up . So, aye, good moaning .

There has to be something happening at the weekend, it just looks too messy for there to be just a continuation of this.

[edo]

Perhaps optimistic calling this cold spell part 1.... perhaps should have called it a bit colder spell part 1......same here as Blitzy....I think i preferred bawbag to this (apart from damage to my fence bit)

[Kayemill]

Cold, Dry and Overcast. Doesn't get much more boring than this. Although it may lead to something down the line.

However it does keep the car clean as the roads are bone dry!

Edited January 31, 2012 by Kayemill