Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 1

[Hawesy]

+3.6c, cloudy, SEly breeze at 18mph. More of the same to come I'm afraid!

Nearly 12 hours later and we're sitting at +3.6c in a SEly breeze!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Most promising chart I've seen for us in a long, long time.

Whistles appropriate music...

[Sunny Leith]

An Arctic sourced ENErly or an Arctic sourced trough sitting around or just to the east is probably the best - can get snow even with less cold uppers on the latter:

*sigh*

Northerlies are generally the most reliable unstable airmass as IF frames it but the mountains tend to eat all the snow. However, if troughing is just to the east in the North Sea. Arctic sourced ENEsterlies remain the creme de la creme for snow potential for most of the people with the above better for the Highlands too:

There's still the potential for either of those scenarios to revisit our shores before winter's out, but even the best scenarios on offer in the past week were not a patch on those spells.

Shame on you LS ... for posting nothing less than this hard-core synoptic porn. I'll be thinking about nothing else all night now

Edited January 31, 2012 by by-tor

[snowy owl]

Amazing how the output can shift so much with a few tweaks of upstream signals. Patience is most definitely our strong point !!! Good things come to those who wait!!

Especially big green blobs in the artic!! artic high moving north azores popping off too and someyummy cold on its way to us!! Keep with the trends.

[Hairy Celt]

-1C now under a clear sky. 94mm rain in January, and of that approximately 0.1mm fell as snow. If you'll excuse the failed logic.

Edited January 31, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[over_the_rainbow]

Is there a way / website to see historic GFS/ECM charts?

[BleakMidwinter]

Shame on you LS ... for posting nothing less than this hard-core synoptic porn. I'll be thinking about nothing else all night now

Well that would solve the Kilted Thread Vasectomy Dilemma, wouldn't it? If they're all kept busy with Synoptic Porn, then...

[A Winter's Tale]

Let's see how this winter has been doing at Glasgow Airport and comparing it to the all the winters that I can remember seeing:

First of all - let's see if we are in the longest cold snap of the winter so far!

* cold snap = max below 6c and min below 1 or 0c.

(Dec 4-6), (Dec 15-18), (Jan 13-16), (Jan 26-31....)

We've had 4 cold snaps this winter. That 31 days below average this winter without the other two or three single days below the average. We are now into Day 6 of a cold snap and the longest one this winter. Not exactly the best, the first one was the best for snow, the next one was equally good for snow and enjoyable for cold and the third was better for about as good as the second for cold.

Now let's see how this winter at Glasgow Airport has compared to previous winters since 1999/2000:

My Survey of official snow days in that time:

DECEMBER 1999: SNOWFALLS -7 (4th, 12th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 25th), COLDEST TEMP (0/-8C)

JANUARY 2000: SNOWFALLS - 0 (HOWEVER I SAW SNOW THIS MONTH), COLDEST TEMP (2/-4C)

FEBRUARY 2000: SNOWFALLS -2 (12th, 16th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-4C)

OVERALL: 9, 0/-8C

DECEMBER 2000: SNOWFALLS - 5 (17th, [24, 25],26th, 27th, 28th, 31st), COLDEST TEMP (-3/-11C)

JANUARY 2001: SNOWFALLS - 3 (1st, 19th, 21st), COLDEST TEMP (0/-9C)

FEBRUARY 2001: SNOWFALLS - 5 (4th, 5th, 24th, 26th, 27th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-7C)

OVERALL: 13, -3/-11C

DECEMBER 2001: SNOWFALLS - 2 (13th, 29th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-7C)

JANUARY 2002: SNOWFALLS -1 (25th), COLDEST TEMP (1/-10C)

FEBRUARY 2002: SNOWFALLS - 3 (22nd, 23rd, 24th), COLDEST TEMP (4/-5C)

OVERALL: 6, 1/-10C

DECEMBER 2002: SNOWFALLS - 2 (18th, 19th), COLDEST TEMP (-3/-8C)

JANUARY 2003: SNOWFALLS - 4 (1st, 8th, 30th, 31st), COLDEST TEMP (-1/-11C)

FEBRUARY 2003: SNOWFALLS - 2 (2nd, 3rd), COLDEST TEMP (2/-7C)

OVERALL: 8, -3/-8C

DECEMBER 2003: SNOWFALLS - 0, COLDEST TEMP (-2/-8C)

JANUARY 2004: SNOWFALLS - 3 (13th, 28th, 31st), COLDEST TEMP (3/-4C)

FEBRUARY 2004: SNOWFALLS - 2 (7th, 25th), COLDEST TEMP (3/-8C)

OVERALL: 5, -2/-8C

DECEMBER 2004: SNOWFALLS - 2 (24th, 25th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-5C)

JANUARY 2005: SNOWFALLS - 3 (2nd, 17th, 18th), COLDEST TEMP (1/-5C)

FEBRUARY 2005: SNOWFALLS - 3 (21st, 23rd, 24th), COLDEST TEMP (3/-4C)

OVERALL: 8, 1/-5C

DECEMBER 2005: SNOWFALLS - 2 (29th, 30th), COLDEST TEMP (-1/-5C)

JANUARY 2006: SNOWFALLS - 0, COLDEST TEMP (-1/-7C)

FEBRUARY 2006: SNOWFALLS - 0, COLDEST TEMP (4/-6C)

OVERALL: 2, -1/-7C

DECEMBER 2006: SNOWFALLS - 0, COLDEST TEMP (3/-3C)

JANUARY 2007: SNOWFALLS - 3 (16th, 18th, 23rd), COLDEST TEMP (5/-4C)

FEBRUARY 2007: SNOWFALLS - 0, COLDEST TEMP (4/-7C)

OVERALL: 3, 3/-4C

DECEMBER 2007: SNOWFALLS - 1 (8th), COLDEST TEMP (-1/-5C)

JANUARY 2008: SNOWFALLS - 6 (2nd, 3rd, 10th, 21st, 24th, 31st), COLDEST TEMP (2/-5C)

FEBRUARY 2008: SNOWFALLS - 1 (2nd), COLDEST TEMP (5/-7C)

OVERALL: 8, -1/-7C

DECEMBER 2008: SNOWFALLS - 3 (2nd, 11th, 12th), COLDEST TEMP (-1/-7C)

JANUARY 2009: SNOWFALLS - 4 (14th, 18th, 19th, 20th), COLDEST TEMP (1/-8C)

FEBRUARY 2009: SNOWFALLS - 6 (2nd, 4th, 5th, 8th, 9th, 12th), COLDEST TEMP (1/-7C)

OVERALL: 13, -1/-8C

DECEMBER 2009: SNOWFALLS - 11 (14th, 17th, 20th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th, 29th, 30th), COLDEST TEMP (-4/-10C)

JANUARY 2010: SNOWFALLS - 7 (2nd, 5th, 9th, 13th, 14th, 24th, 29th), COLDEST TEMP (-6C/-12C)

FEBRUARY 2010: SNOWFALLS - 5 (2nd, 3rd, 24th, 25th, 27th), COLDEST TEMP (0/-9C)

OVERALL: 23, -6/-12C

DECEMBER 2010: SNOWFALLS - 10 (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 8th, 9th, 16th, 18th, 19th, 25th), COLDEST TEMP (-8/-15C)

JANUARY 2011: SNOWFALLS - 4 (5th, 7th, 8th, 12th), COLDEST TEMP (-2/-7C)

FEBRUARY 2011: SNOWFALLS - 4 (7th, 14th, 19th, 20th), COLDEST TEMP (4/-3C)

OVERALL: 18, -8/-15C

DECEMBER 2011: SNOWFALLS - 6 (4th, 5th, 6th, 9th, 16th, 17th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-5C)

JANUARY 2012: SNOWFALLS - 3 (20th, 24th, 26th), COLDEST TEMP (2/-5C)

OVERALL: 9, 2/-5C

Now let's compare how this winter already compares against others:

1. 2009/2010 - 23

2. 2010/2011 - 18

3. 2000/2001 - 13

4. 2008/2009 - 13

5. 1999/2000 - 9

6. 2011/2012 - 9

7. 2002/2003 - 8

8. 2004/2005 - 8

9. 2007/2008 - 8

10. 2011/2012 - 6

11. 2001/2002 - 6

12. 2003/2004 - 5

13. 2006/2007 - 3

Some without February, this winter is already one of the snowiest that Glasgow Airport has experienced in the past 12-13 years.

Let's see the snowiest and least snowiest month including Autumn, Spring and Winter:

My Snowiest Months - TOP 10:

1. December 2009 - 11

2. December 2010 - 10

3. December 1999 - 7

4. January 2010 - 7

5. December 2011 - 6

6. February 2009 - 6

7. January 2008 - 6

8. December 2000 - 5

9. November 2010 - 5

10. March 2006 - 5

Least snowiest winter months:

1. December 2003 - 0

2. December 2006 - 0

3. February 2007 - 0

4. January 2006 - 0

5. February 2006 - 0

6. January 2001 - 0

7. January 2002 - 1

8. December 2007 - 1

9. February 2008 - 1

10. December 2002 - 2

11. February 2003 - 2

12. February 2004 - 2

13. December 2004 - 2

14. February 2000 - 2

15. December 2005 - 2

16. January 2007 - 3

17. February 2005 - 3

18. January 2005 - 3

19. January 2004 - 3

20. February 2002 - 3

21. January 2003 - 3

22. December 2008 - 3

23. January 2011 - 3

January 2011 is somewhere between 16th and 23rd on the least snowy winter months in my lifetime so It's not even in the top 15. Infact, it's closer to being one of the snowier months! There have been 15 less snowy months than this month in my life time. So really, this winter has been a success in having already been one of the snowiest since I can remember.

Now let's make things a bit more interesting in looking at Winter seasons interms of Autumn to Spring:

1. 2010/2011 - 27

2. 2009/2010 - 24

3. 2008/2009 - 17

4. 2000/2001 - 16

5. 2007/2008 - 13

6. 2004/2005 - 10

7. 1999/2000 - 9

8. 2011/2012 - 9

9. 2005/2006 - 9

10. 2002/2003 - 8

11. 2001/2002 - 8

12. 2011/2012 - 6

13. 2003/2004 - 6

14. 2006/2007 - 5

Only 6 of these periods have been snowier than this one which has a third of winter to go and an entire Spring. 5 entire snow seasons were less snowier and 3 are equall. So it's more than likely that 2011/2012 will be a snowy season for Glasgow.

Now let's see how years compare:

2011 had 14 which is a lot. 2012 has 3, that's higher than 2006 already!

So all in all, this winter has been more than a success for Glasgow but I'm sure if you were to use the data from wunderground historical data bit for Edinburgh that you'd find massive contrasts between the two cities.

[edo]

Winner of longest post of January CSS interesting when you see stats put together like that!! anyway after trawling through that surprising large amount of posts I am officially optimistic again and anyway if nothing happens this winter at least I discovered the kilted thread to laugh the way thru winter....I'm gonna ignore the attempt to discuss the V word again though

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Is there a way / website to see historic GFS/ECM charts?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

[Hairy Celt]

Well that would solve the Kilted Thread Vasectomy Dilemma, wouldn't it? If they're all kept busy with Synoptic Porn, then...

Eh, I don't think so... :lol: KTVD indeed.

[thebigyin]

certainly for Aberdeen thus far one of the worst (so far I should add). But our best snowfalls can be Feb, or March. Sometimes even April! Still looking out for my Northerly (HC can share it too I suppose).

Anyway, weather report - 4c/-4C - been locked at that for about 2 days now. Don't expect it to change any either with the flow intensity vs. direction. at least it is dry. very dry in fact. cold dry air playing havoc with my nose

Looking at the rain radar the rain return off the coast of here is back again I see. I was up the coast road today and it was dry. But I did notice just to north of city there was lots of foggy misty stuff blowing in. On the way home it had cleared. I then checked the radar earlier and you could see the false return then clear just about the same time I noticed foggy harry stuff clear up. I assume it must be this that gives the false return. Hope so - it has been bugging me for a couple of days in the absence of snow to take my mind of it!! I have herd that e.g. wind farms can cause a return sometimes too. fascinating eh? Thanks for that, I'll get my coat.

[over_the_rainbow]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

Perfect thanks! Exactly what I wanted!

[edo]

Are u resorting to reminiscing OTR

[Cheggers]

Are we still on suicide watch in the MT? A wee bit warmer tonight at 1C with patchy cloud.

I see the cold has been moved West a wee bit more. What would happen if it ended up another few hundred miles West?

Edited January 31, 2012 by Cheggers

[edo]

Are we still on suicide watch in the MT? A wee bit warmer tonight at 1C with patchy cloud.

I see the cold has been moved West a wee bit more. What would happen if it ended up another few hundred miles West?

nah they are verging on upbeat in the MT..... just checking GFS and showing huge precipitation sat night into sunday but our uppers falling back to -2 whilst the SE england have -8..... you never know though may just get a huge dumping.....everyone in MT just awaiting SMurrs promised big post...

oh and john holmes lecturing people on what they should and shouldnt be looking at....upsetting a few....mods reminding people to stay on topic....just the usual carry on

up to 2.3 here from 2.1....and radar empty...none of these -10 uppers appear to be arriving to generate the convection...lowest progged now are -7 thu night...

Edited January 31, 2012 by edodfc

[Blizzardo]

Temperature 1.6c and dew point -2.9c with a light easterly wind. Really not sure what way things will go at the end of the week - cold and snowy or a change back to a milder south westerly. I think tonights faxes will be interesting and my gut feel would be that they will show colder air pushing a bit further west with the possibility of some fronts stalling across the country over the weekend(somewhere in the UK). With some extremely cold air pushing into the south east over the next few days I'd say that on balance this colder easterly influence wont be easily shifted without a fight and just not convinced that the Atlantic is as potent as a month or so ago.

[edo]

Temperature 1.6c and dew point -2.9c with a light easterly wind. Really not sure what way things will go at the end of the week - cold and snowy or a change back to a milder south westerly. I think tonights faxes will be interesting and my gut feel would be that they will show colder air pushing a bit further west with the possibility of some fronts stalling across the country over the weekend(somewhere in the UK). With some extremely cold air pushing into the south east over the next few days I'd say that on balance this colder easterly influence wont be easily shifted without a fight and just not convinced that the Atlantic is as potent as a month or so ago.

I agree thats what i most eagerly await tonight and almost expect the colder air to be further west but these are changed days of model watching so should probably expect the unexpected.....also eager to see if 18z delivers further hints of a greenie high

[edo]

no post for 19mins on model thread?? is it snowing down sarf and there all looking out the window..... is the 18z out predicting a friday breakdown...has John Holmes had them all assassinated...or are they all watching man city hoping for an equaliser to get their coupons up like I am

[Cheggers]

no post for 19mins on model thread?? is it snowing down sarf and there all looking out the window..... is the 18z out predicting a friday breakdown...has John Holmes had them all assassinated...or are they all watching man city hoping for an equaliser to get their coupons up like I am

If yer coupon comes in, you can buy one of these.....

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Are u resorting to reminiscing OTR

Nothing wrong with that.

:wub:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Temperature 1.6c and dew point -2.9c with a light easterly wind. Really not sure what way things will go at the end of the week - cold and snowy or a change back to a milder south westerly. I think tonights faxes will be interesting and my gut feel would be that they will show colder air pushing a bit further west with the possibility of some fronts stalling across the country over the weekend(somewhere in the UK). With some extremely cold air pushing into the south east over the next few days I'd say that on balance this colder easterly influence wont be easily shifted without a fight and just not convinced that the Atlantic is as potent as a month or so ago.

That last point you make is true on so many levels that I think a return to zonality is near on impossible. If we get unlucky with the synoptics and the high latitude block sets up unfavourably then we could still miss out on the cold but there's no way we will return to the endless train of Atlantic lows with a strong PV to the north.

For comparison, the PV late December:

and the jet:

Globally, flat as a pancake with all the cold bottled up in the Arctic.

Look at the NH now:

PV certainly disrupted, with more to come, concentrated on the other side of the pole with the Greenland segment fairly weak.

As for the jet, well it's more like a pile of spaghetti than a pancake:

The PV is at its maximum strength around mid January and with disruption to it set to continue and finally get rid of blues over Greenland there's only one way I see this going long term and it ain't back to where we were this time last month...

[edo]

lol nah its the AYE app i need for my AYEphone

[Big Innes Madori]

nah they are verging on upbeat in the MT..... just checking GFS and showing huge precipitation sat night into sunday but our uppers falling back to -2 whilst the SE england have -8..... you never know though may just get a huge dumping.....everyone in MT just awaiting SMurrs promised big post...

oh and john holmes lecturing people on what they should and shouldnt be looking at....upsetting a few....mods reminding people to stay on topic....just the usual carry on

up to 2.3 here from 2.1....and radar empty...none of these -10 uppers appear to be arriving to generate the convection...lowest progged now are -7 thu night...

Mmmm 2.3 from 2.1 enough already eh

I agree wit me Holmey though Edo, it gets awfy baw bustin in the auld MT Mad Hoose

Big Innes

[edo]

Mmmm 2.3 from 2.1 enough already eh

I agree wit me Holmey though Edo, it gets awfy baw bustin in the auld MT Mad Hoose

Big Innes

couldnae agree more with you no big man....no doubt big holmesy knows what hes spraffing about....for him it must be like dealing with a bunch of excited havering kids acting like they know it all..... the bickering all makes good tv model thread watching though

edit hud the bus Innes we are back doon to 2.1

Edited January 31, 2012 by edodfc