Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 1

[JoeShmoe]

Rain here

[LomondSnowstorm]

Last winter I had a maximum depth of around 9cm (or just under 4"). A lot of the shower activity was in the form of graupel which helped keep down accumulation. The most amazing thing was the number of mornings with lying snow cover, 28, which is incredible for my location (bear in mind three of the winters I've been here since 2005 have been completely without lying snow - including this one, to date!). The most snow I've seen since moving here was in fact Feb 2009 (11cm) - lowest temp I've recorded -6.3c (December 2010).

That's very impressive, the 11cm particularly so - I don't even think we had that much in 2009!

Temperatures fluctuating a bit, was 1.5C, rose to 2.1C and back down to 1.8C now, humidity steady at 87% so dewpoints still below 0C. A slight warm up as precipitation hits is perfectly normal and I'd expect things to cool down later as the cloud bank breaks up a bit into better defined showers.

[A Winter's Tale]

It does at the moment look like one of TWS' typical cloudy easterlies, with too much modification meaning precipitation is lacking in intensity. Oh well, could improve later on

http://expert-images...013018_3012.gif

You know, if everything just moved a bit further west then it would be game on. Very small chance of that happening though.

[sn0wman]

I counted 3 snow flakes and then it stopped but there looks like more to the East of me!

[LomondSnowstorm]

You know, if everything just moved a bit further west then it would be game on. Very small chance of that happening though.

I'd say there's more chance of it backing west than east, given how quickly the models flipped yesterday. They've been consistently putting the block too far east and overdoing the north arm of the jet. I'd expect a 'breakdown' of sorts but the extent and snowiness of it remains to be seen. Certainly shouldn't be wall to wall zonality though.

[penicuikblizz]

Light snow shower in Penicuik, has left a sugar coating dusting!!! This cold spell is looking like a poor show for Scotland!!

Edited January 30, 2012 by penicuikblizz

[Hairy Celt]

I wonder what the chances of any of those flurries (if that's not too grand a word) making it over the Cairngorms are? NFC! Anyone give me favourable odds, else good luck to the rest of you...

[spindrift1980]

MWIS outlook suggests that any mildness in Scotland towards the end of the week may only be an interlude before colder conditions become re-established (in other words the block wins out over the Atlantic):

"Cold across all mountains until late in the week - and after what may be a milder interlude in Scotland - may continue to

envelop Britain next week as well. Terrain will be substantially frozen and snow showers on some eastern mountains.

Generally winds on the mountains fairly light.

However, this coming weekend, fronts may well encroach into/across Scotland, with snow and low cloud spreading in. It

may intermittently turn milder, with thaw of lying snow, at least on lower slopes, before the thaw slows or comes to a halt

again into next week."

Edited January 30, 2012 by spindrift1980

[LomondSnowstorm]

I wonder what the chances of any of those flurries (if that's not too grand a word) making it over the Cairngorms are? NFC! Anyone give me favourable odds, else good luck to the rest of you...

NTSFCM, NTSFC

[Hairy Celt]

NTSFCM, NTSFC

:o that's disgusting, probably not even physically possible :wacko:

[Cheggers]

Just been ootside to cut my last few bits of flooring and it's white? What, why, where, when???

[snowy owl]

I Best go and peek out the windae! Nae snaw ((

Edited January 30, 2012 by snowy owl

[Cheggers]

Poor Aberdeen, that echo on the radar seems to be sitting there giving the bird.

[A Winter's Tale]

GPs latest thoughts in the model thread is encouraging!

[thebigyin]

Poor Aberdeen, that echo on the radar seems to be sitting there giving the bird.

Noticed that too. None dry here. I assume it is a false return or the like. A bit odd. The temp here is up at 3C so even if it is real and makes landfall it will be rain! ah well.

Off to torture myself in the model thread. Hopefully the interesting posts from GP relate to a screaming northerly!!

Edited January 30, 2012 by thebigyin

[A Winter's Tale]

Ah, I see that the snow has already started in the SE! The thread down there is already buzzing with posts and reports of fine snizzle and there are discussions of a thames streamer tonight and sleepless nights!

I can just imagine the headlines tomorrow!!!

Anyway, surely it's a good sign that they are getting some snow showers already, hopefully in the next few days we'll see more popping up over here. The latter part of the week needs close inspection with every model run as it can go either way. The Scandi Hi could be underestimated and jet over estimated so the cold spell may be here for longer. If not it can always come back. So whatever this week throws at us whether it's fine east coast snizzle or something a bit more interesting or whether the atlantic wins or not - there remains a lot of optimism after GP's post not too long ago saying expect more cold and possible heights near Greenland - LS also showed an interesting chart indicating heights in the northern hemisphere.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Noticed that too. None dry here. I assume it is a false return or the like. A bit odd. The temp here is up at 3C so even if it is real and makes landfall it will be rain! ah well.

Off to torture myself in the model thread. Hopefully the interesting posts from GP relate to a screaming northerly!!

How did you know?

[LomondSnowstorm]

So whatever this week throws at us whether it's fine east coast snizzle or something a bit more interesting or whether the atlantic wins or not - there remains a lot of optimism after GP's post not too long ago saying expect more cold and possible heights near Greenland - LS also showed an interesting chart indicating heights in the northern hemisphere.

I honestly think that's being a bit generous to the precipitation we've had tonight - only marginally better than a slap on the face with a wet kipper. 3C now, at least the D.P is below 0C, could really just do with slack winds and clear skies overnight and have things kicking off in the morning. Ach well, better to be in business with cold uppers than not.

[edo]

1.9c here and cloudy...heavy brief sleet shower on way to Dundee at 7 but that's all...air smells incredibly fresh if that makes sense....must be those east air uppers...anyway not holding too much hope and cheggers c'mon what's more important DIY or snow reports for us #priorities

[LomondSnowstorm]

Pub run a lot better for all of us http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120130/18/96/h850t850eu.png

-10C uppers still around and no sign of a breakdown. It may not be a particularly snowy chart on the face of it but it will deepen the surface and upper cold and mean that any fronts approaching WILL be snow http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120130/18/105/ukmintemp.png

[Hawesy]

Temp up to +4.4c here on the coast in the freshening SEly breeze.

[snowy owl]

Is there an increase in the flow from the easterly?

[A Winter's Tale]

Baltic Iberia.

Still waiting to see whether Scotland will end up Baltic too!

Edited January 30, 2012 by Campsie Snow Storm

[A Winter's Tale]

More snow in North Africa than in Scotland. I wonder how the Med snow machine will pan out!

Scotland is the midlest place in W Europe and N Africa!

[A Winter's Tale]

Just imagine being a north african cold and snow lover and looking at this run! Think about those epic streamers they would be hit by.