Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 4)

[pyrotech]

Looking at next week and beyond into Fi

Firstly the essembles

The control and operational both have the 850mb temperatures at around -5 for most of the period, lowering at times to -8.

That is right through to around 19th of the Month.

The mean is cold at around - 2 so i would expect the models to have got a good idea of 850mb temps

The 2m temps are cold looking very cold at times throughout the period.

Percipitation is very low on operational, control and the average(mean), but i would expect this in this type of setup and expect surprises with percipitation as any shorwaves will not show up now.

The Gfs also shows -5 uppers at times but getting close to zero at times in the west of the UK.

From the last run there has been some subtle changes, perhaps slightly less cold uppers at times, but later in the period a low tries to undercut the UK, on each run this has moved Slightly south. Its probably far enough South as we want it, but will change as time nears,( too far North = Sleet / Rain : Too far South and we miss the percipitation.) These lows try to undercut us 12th - 17th.

We have a strong block to our East over Europe and over Siberia. This will make moving the Cold away from us very dificult.

This week the Cold will push back from the East and at times this is a dry direction, however East coast of England will have plenty of snow showers, some of which will make it to the west at times.

By Thursday i think the wind will be quite a feature making it feel bitter, with this i see Snow showers in bands crossing the UK .

Then we look for a Low trying to push North East, if that stays Just south of the UK we could have an Event. So after a brief less cold period to start the week we then get a signifigant cold air mass that gives opportunities for snow, increasing as the week goes on.

Do not worry about percipitation amounts and places for now, things will change as the week progresses and some percipitation will not be forecast until 24 hours before.

I hope that helps and gives an insight to what we can expect over the next 14 days

[pyrotech]

The BBC graphics often reflect the NAE. The met do have their own model but it seems to be very close to the NAE and both are high resolution. In fairness when you take in how marginal this has been, you are talking slight elevation, timing of fronts, mixing of two air masses and trying to do whole country not just one persons back yard - i think Meto have as usual done very well with this.

[keithlucky]

Nicely put together Pyro the low forming over Germany is interesting in the 72 to 96 timeframe FEB1991 repeat anyone (funny enough that was on feb8th)

[Carl46Wrexham]

When is this cruddy rain going to stop? Freezing cold as well. It can sod off right now frankly. Well done to the lucky buggers who got snow today. Our snowless winter goes on.

Edited February 4, 2012 by Carl43Wrexham

[Bonjangle]

Watching Birmingham v Southampton on sky sports 2 and total white out there , snowing very heavy .... blow it this way Brummies .

[SLAMMER]

Looking at next week and beyond into Fi

Firstly the essembles

The control and operational both have the 850mb temperatures at around -5 for most of the period, lowering at times to -8.

That is right through to around 19th of the Month.

The mean is cold at around - 2 so i would expect the models to have got a good idea of 850mb temps

The 2m temps are cold looking very cold at times throughout the period.

Percipitation is very low on operational, control and the average(mean), but i would expect this in this type of setup and expect surprises with percipitation as any shorwaves will not show up now.

The Gfs also shows -5 uppers at times but getting close to zero at times in the west of the UK.

From the last run there has been some subtle changes, perhaps slightly less cold uppers at times, but later in the period a low tries to undercut the UK, on each run this has moved Slightly south. Its probably far enough South as we want it, but will change as time nears,( too far North = Sleet / Rain : Too far South and we miss the percipitation.) These lows try to undercut us 12th - 17th.

We have a strong block to our East over Europe and over Siberia. This will make moving the Cold away from us very dificult.

This week the Cold will push back from the East and at times this is a dry direction, however East coast of England will have plenty of snow showers, some of which will make it to the west at times.

By Thursday i think the wind will be quite a feature making it feel bitter, with this i see Snow showers in bands crossing the UK .

Then we look for a Low trying to push North East, if that stays Just south of the UK we could have an Event. So after a brief less cold period to start the week we then get a signifigant cold air mass that gives opportunities for snow, increasing as the week goes on.

Do not worry about percipitation amounts and places for now, things will change as the week progresses and some percipitation will not be forecast until 24 hours before.

I hope that helps and gives an insight to what we can expect over the next 14 days

thanks for that. the uppers and all that don't mean much to me but the last few paragraphs sum up what might happen. thanks again.

[Penderyn]

When is this cruddy rain going to stop? Freezing cold as well. It can sod off right now frankly. Well done to the lucky buggers who got snow today. Our snowless winter goes on.

Ye I think saying "east wales" got snow when most of the NE saw nothing is a little bit genrealising

If it makes you feel any better Carl we were doomed. At 420m asl it got up to 3.5C. Heavy rain currently, was never any hint of sleet.

There was snow coverings east of Shrewsbury...and South slopes of the Berwyn range...so close

Edited February 4, 2012 by Penderyn

[TheWeatherGirl]

sadly it looks Like the snow has turned to rain just like predicted and so our two inches of snow will soon be washed away, but I'm trying no t to feel too disheartened, we've got a good enough covering for me to take my little boy out on his sledge and give my baby daughter her first sight of snow. I was afraid this winter would be totally snowless so at least we have had a brief taste of it, even if there won't be any "snowdays " !! we also had a drama today as the condensation pipe from our combi boiler had frozen solid, meaning our boiler stopped working and we had to ring around and find an engineer who could make an emergency call . . . we're £60 poorer as a result !!

[alijoe]

What sort of set up is best for us in Wales then? i.e do we do better from a northerly, easterl etc etc. I just do not understand it all. Hoping someone could help. thanks

[dyl232]

Raining all day in north west wales , havent seen a flake over here this winter, always seem to miss out :-( about time to move house i think....

[TonyH]

For Keith:

http://www2.warwick..../campus/webcam/

Students making snowmen at Warwick Uni. I recall someone saying they could not see the SE getting much.

My home town.

Edited February 4, 2012 by TonyH

[keithlucky]

I like fishing Tonh just caste you took the bait lol if i had 1nch of snow in 2 hrs how much can Seast have in 12hrs?.(warwick in the seast?)Meanwhile outlook for weekahead snow at times sharp frosts from tuesday night onwards. Latest met update backing the model output.The low forming over Germany is interesting in the 72 to 96 timeframe FEB1991 repeat anyone (funny enough that was on feb8th)STARTS THE BALL ROLLING.

Edited February 4, 2012 by keithlucky

[TonyH]

Wish I was there this weekend Keith!

[welshwizard]

For Keith:

http://www2.warwick..../campus/webcam/

Students making snowmen at Warwick Uni. I recall someone saying they could not see the SE getting much.

My home town.

my son made a snowman earlier and i recall bbc weather saying this morn that i would have rain in my area lol ;-)

[worldairgroup]

not trying to rub your noses in it guys, but this shot shows how real bad it is in warwick - m40 -junction 13. i am sure you will agree for a major road its looking quite bad. hmm our turn next time i guess.

[keithlucky]

Wish I was there this weekend Keith!

Dont worry T you be sick of snow by the weekend ,You may be to old T to get drunk on the days ending with Y as my mother is terrorised by the students ,she lives near to swansea uni.

[Matty23]

aybody no how much snow is in welshpool cheers

[Scarlet_Snow]

Whats happening in places where it was snowing earlier? Is it still going or has it turned to rain?

[Bonjangle]

Rain here falling for over 2 hours now and snow gone all sllllooooshhhhhy .

[WalsallWeather]

Whats happening in places where it was snowing earlier? Is it still going or has it turned to rain?

They've gone quiet so I am guessing it's raining now!

[Cwmbran Eira]

Rain here now. Still a covering of snow. Will all be gone in the morning though. Currently 1.5c

[Jayfromcardiff]

They've gone quiet so I am guessing it's raining now!

Ye rain here mate - knew it wouldn't last the snow, it snowed until around 4pm we ended up with an inch or just over.

[Scarlet_Snow]

Ah nevermind , hopefully we'll all get a chance for proper lasting snow next week

[Jayfromcardiff]

Ah nevermind , hopefully we'll all get a chance for proper lasting snow next week

Yep i'd rather see the whole of wales get a decent spell of snow which lasts a while, it was nice to see snow falling today but i guess it's pointless having it to be washed away a few hours later, it's depressing lol.

[TheWeatherGirl]

Much as Im disappointed to see the snow being washed away by the stupid rain (grrrr...) Im exhulted that we got it after the met and beeb forecast only 3 hours of sleet for us!