Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 4)

[madian2]

still got the fine stuff coming down it has eased off a bit but as i type this seems to be getting thicker again hope it keeps going

[welshwizard]

looking at the radar there is still a lot ov something rain/sleet/snow over the next few hrs.are the temps rising to high though for snow?

[Snowmadsam]

Plenty of danglers!

From an Easterly flow?

[Cwmbran Eira]

From an Easterly flow?

no. not really.

We certainly will be looking east over the next week or so. So we need to be looking at battleground events. A nice channel low would be good.

After mid month it is suggested that things could swing to a northerly flow. Again, giving us plenty of opportunity for snow.....and danglers??

Edited February 4, 2012 by Cwmbran Eira

[mikeocarroll]

Just turned to rain here. I can hear the snow melting Temp 0.9c dp -1.5c, just want the front to hurry through now so I can hang onto my snow...

Meto got this spot on at least in their warnings, bbc forecasts underplayed it a bit. NAE model was also pretty accurate much better than the NMM which was too progressive.

Actually they're all wrong because as we know the front is going to turn around and bring lots of snow and cold air back to Wales overnight, was almost forgetting :rofl:

[jo200199]

A few more pics. Not much considering how long,it's been snowing today & still is

Edited February 4, 2012 by jo200199

[Snowmadsam]

no. not really.

We certainly will be looking east over the next week or so. So we need to be looking at battleground events. A nice channel low would be good.

After mid month it is suggested that things could swing to a northerly flow. Again, giving us plenty of opportunity for snow.....and danglers??

ahh cool hopefully a battle will form soon then..but knowing my luck it will proberly be rain again :lol:

[howmuchsnow]

Zero, freezing rain all day, no snowflakes. Lots of ice, dry ground, very windy. Seems the main frontal precipitation is being deflected north eastwards across the country. Perhaps the easterly flow is winning. Otherwise, crap forecasting and really pathetic non-snow event.

[WINTRY WALES]

Snow coming down thick and heavy again now. Lasted a lot longer than i thought this!!

[catuk]

Snow coming down thick and heavy again now. Lasted a lot longer than i thought this!!

+1 It's a steady fall of fine snow definitely not sleet/rain.

[TonyH]

I think what has happened here is a lot of people thought they wouldn't get much after last week, when the setup was better, If we look at Met Office, here we are in the yellow area, with 2-5cm of snow possible. at 3pm here was was probably an inch on most surfaces, since then it has reverted back to rain, but due to the frozen ground, the snow still cover the garden albeit slushly.

Of course it didn't help yesterday tha the BBC forecasts underplayed snow amounts.

My gut feeling was that it would start off as snow before reverting back to rain, correct in a sense but I didn't think the snow would last as long as it did,, in this case the snow pushing in earleri than expected helped.

PS My spelling needs improving.

Then they were correct with that too, as the vast majority of us in Wales have had nothing or next to nothing!

[DeepSnow]

Well the snow has all gone and the temp is 2.1C but it looks a bit icy out there now! Enjoy those of you who still have snow, hope we get some good snow events this week

[SLAMMER]

i find it awfully frustrating that on the model thread and this thread no-one actually says what they think will happen in the upcoming week.

Anyone any actual idea of the real forecast for this week? The BBC forecast is to be ignored as its never accurate. The Met Office five day update doesn't show anything significant. So what is everyone on about for next week? Forget late February etc, what will happen in the near future?

[Jackfrost]

Turned to sleet. Damn.

[TonyH]

i find it awfully frustrating that on the model thread and this thread no-one actually says what they think will happen in the upcoming week.

Anyone any actual idea of the real forecast for this week? The BBC forecast is to be ignored as its never accurate. The Met Office five day update doesn't show anything significant. So what is everyone on about for next week? Forget late February etc, what will happen in the near future?

Watch this space I will be giving my guide for the week tomorrow morning when it's quieter in here.

[TonyH]

Based on a quick look at GFS and latest trends, I would say a generally dry and cold week to come for Wales. However a front does get close to us during Wednesday and if it gets a bit further east another chance at wintry weather then. Very cold easterlies re-assert from Thursday, some more hard frosts.

[SLAMMER]

cheers

[ourson]

i find it awfully frustrating that on the model thread and this thread no-one actually says what they think will happen in the upcoming week.

Anyone any actual idea of the real forecast for this week? The BBC forecast is to be ignored as its never accurate. The Met Office five day update doesn't show anything significant. So what is everyone on about for next week? Forget late February etc, what will happen in the near future?

TonyH gives a good weekly forecast usually towards the end of the weekend. Countryfile tomorrow is worth a watch. Check out netweather's forecast (via the home page) or metcheck.com - I think the main problem is people being unwilling to put themselves in a position of being totally wrong. With (apparently) plenty of differences in the model output it would appear difficult to say what's likely to occur. The model-threaders are a funny bunch, some love the cold, and therefore can find cold possibilities in whichever model shows the coldest output, others are mild-lovers, so look for the mild outcomes. Others are just there to wind other people up.

Best plan - look out of the window!

[Ms_Natalie]

Was snowing in Newport at 8:30am on my way to work. Has not stopped snowing all day at home. Still coming down, but very fine at the moment. Probably about 1.5 inches. Side roads horrific to drive on...so considering the met office advised it was turning to rain throughout the day...I think my area has had a pretty good day.

[pyrotech]

Will do a week ahead forecast in next hour, just got home from the football.

[Elnonio]

A bit unfair on the BBC I think - they forecast on Tuesday evening that a front would come in and that there would be snow on its leading edge. That was more or less what happened. I was surprised that they forecasted it so early at the time but I think they were more or less spot on. It's easy to blame the forecaster when you don't get the weather you want! And no, I am not a weather person and I don't work for the Beeb!!

Edited February 4, 2012 by Elnonio

[SLAMMER]

i'm more talking about their graphics on the website. I don't mind what weather we have, its what we get. I enjoy allsorts so have no bias to getting cold weather or snow.

for example if you click on the bbc weather an hour ago it said it was snowing in cardiff, it wasnt. Although they were pretty accurate overall in this run i'll concede that.

[wizard.muh]

TonyH gives a good weekly forecast usually towards the end of the weekend. Countryfile tomorrow is worth a watch. Check out netweather's forecast (via the home page) or metcheck.com - I think the main problem is people being unwilling to put themselves in a position of being totally wrong. With (apparently) plenty of differences in the model output it would appear difficult to say what's likely to occur. The model-threaders are a funny bunch, some love the cold, and therefore can find cold possibilities in whichever model shows the coldest output, others are mild-lovers, so look for the mild outcomes. Others are just there to wind other people up.

Best plan - look out of the window!

I totally agree with you thats a good summary in the mod thread.

The mild lovers and the wind ups are one of the same though, most weather in the UK is quite boring most of the time, so anything on the edge of the spectrum would be the reason why we are glued on this site.

Not a total let down today mind, trends and patterns are a science but the specifics on the day are not. The rest we read at the event is human stuff (like bbc covering every angle) and ofcourse the weather making it up as it goes along.

Edited February 4, 2012 by wizard.muh

[Elnonio]

Fair enough. I would also rate their map with the mostly identical shades of blue as being possibly the most pointless waste of pixels on the web (IMO)! Raining in Cardiff, and feeling milder. All the pretty snow washed away. Never mind - I'm going with netweather's 60% chance of snow on Wednesday - even though they reckoned there was an 8% chance of snow today and it snowed most of the day

Edited February 4, 2012 by Elnonio

[ourson]

Fair enough. I would also rate their map with the mostly identical shades of blue as being possibly the most pointless waste of pixels on the web (IMO)! Raining in Cardiff, and feeling milder. All the pretty snow washed away. Never mind - I'm going with netweather's 60% chance of snow on Wednesday - even though they reckoned there was an 8% chance of snow today and it snowed most of the day

I'll go with the 60% chance aswell Elnonio. Can't agree that it's milder in Cardiff tho - i'd be wearing gloves in the house if I could type with them on. Boiler's been going full blast for the last four days. I was wearing a skiing hat in the kitchen this morning! Must be getting old