Yorkshire And Lincolnshire Regional Discussion Thread Part 2

[LeeSnowFan]

Arghhhhh does that mean "BARNSLEY" gonna miss out once again

[Lewis]

Gosh Lewis, nearly 4,000 posts! How do you do it man? I am just getting towards 500 after nearly five years.....

I am surprised how cold it has stayed this week and this is making me hopeful for more snow, My mother used to always say if the snow hangs on you will get more. If it all melts real quick, then you won't. It has not melted at all on my road (in the shade) and is still over 8cm deep where undisturbed. This is a good sign I feel

Wonder when the event will kick off tomorrow....?

Hello,

That's a good theory what your mother said, i always say to my kids it's too cold for snow sometimes when they ask why it ain't snowing!

Timing of the event for us is around mid-day onwards, they'll be some light precipitation about around then, becoming more persistent and heavier late afternoon into early evening.

Regarding my 4,000 posts, I worked out I posted around 60 posts each night per snowfall event

Lewis

[Harsh Climate]

GFS 18z huge upgrade for west Yorkshire! Not saying we will get snow but we now have a chance.

Colder uppers further west on this run and the 0C isotherm is showing 0-200 rather than 1000 or so.

East yorkshire definatly cold enough for snow but will the precipitation be heavy enough for good accumulations?? A covering atleast though.

[Muffelchen]

Hello,

That's a good theory what your mother said, i always say to my kids it's too cold for snow sometimes when they ask why it ain't snowing!

Timing of the event for us is around mid-day onwards, they'll be some light precipitation about around then, becoming more persistent and heavier late afternoon into early evening.

Regarding my 4,000 posts, I worked out I posted around 60 posts each night per snowfall event

Lewis

Love the last stat Lewis - 60 per night per snowfall event: lean pickings this year.....

Yeah, the old wives' take about 'too cold for snow' is an interesting one. I have never done any research on this one (I, like you, have young children) but my pet theory is that when it is cold and frosty, the weather is usually anticyclonic with the obvious result, no precipitation. I like the term used on these forums for this kind of weather: faux cold. This sums it up nicely I feel. A pool of cold air sitting at the surface getting colder at night as it is in contact with the ground (boundary layer). This is in contrast with the deep cold that the continent is experiencing right now which brings us snow showers on the East Coast and battleground snow/sleet events when this air collides with the tropical maritime air. This usually means the air in the UK is mixed and not 'too cold' esactly like it is tonight and snow is a possibility.

Anyway my thoughts for what they are worth.

Hopefully more sledging in the Westwood this weekend.....

Muff

[Mr Frost]

Fantastic video forecast yet again Lewis!

You should be snapped up by a weather website to produce more on a regular basis!

Great to see again the ones from December 2010 and January 2011! (Takes me back to that amazing Greenland high winter spell!)

Well done again.

Great thread this one, lots of talented model observers. Harsh Climate is another one I respect and a few others.

[Cheese Rice]

NAE now goes for no percipitation across East Yorkshire.

Nowcast all the way.

Although this looks rather nice...

Edited February 8, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Muffelchen]

NAE now goes for no percipitation across East Yorkshire.

Nowcast all the way.

Although this does look rather nice...

That would mean that we stay in the cold air all the way. Whilst I would prefer some snow, this is a scenario I can live with as it would bring further cold dividentds down the line. If you follow the model thread there is a divergence at about day 3 at the moment which is related to the tilt of the WAA ridge over the Atlantic. If we stay on the cold side of the jet, the tilt is more favourable for deeper/longer cold and better chances of more snow in the medium term - I can live with that.

Would like some snow tomorr0w though, because I am greedy!!

[Craigers]

As it stands it looks like the spine of yorkshire will do pretty good! further east you are the better the accumulations i would of thought

[Harsh Climate]

NAE now goes for no percipitation across East Yorkshire.

Nowcast all the way.

Although this looks rather nice...

I can see the bulk of the precipitation heading down the spine of the country, with places towards the east coast remaining dry.

If we can just squeeze uppers as cold as -1/-2 tomorow combined with a 0 degree isotherm of 0/200 I can see a big snow event for west/south yorkshire tommorow, due to the slow moving nature of the precipitation and evaporative cooling coming into play.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Cheese Rice]

That would mean that we stay in the cold air all the way. Whilst I would prefer some snow, this is a scenario I can live with as it would bring further cold dividentds down the line. If you follow the model thread there is a divergence at about day 3 at the moment which is related to the tilt of the WAA ridge over the Atlantic. If we stay on the cold side of the jet, the tilt is more favourable for deeper/longer cold and better chances of more snow in the medium term - I can live with that.

Would like some snow tomorr0w though, because I am greedy!!

Its got nothing to do with long term effects though. We are dealing with a trough not a low.

[Craigers]

Its got nothing to do with long term effects though. We are dealing with a trough not a low.

Cheese rice its a warm front that is decaying as it hits the block.

Trough is a line of showers from the cause of instability.

[Muffelchen]

Perspective I guess: I could be wrong but isn't a surface low pressure a manifestation of a shortwave trough at higher levels in the atmosphere? This is how I understand it although I have never studied meteorology and as with all things scientific, the more your learn the less you know....

What I am getting is well illustrated in the map that Harsh Climate posted a little earlier (http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72471-yorkshire-and-lincolnshire-regional-discussion-thread-part-2/page__view__findpost__p__2261220) which shows the sharp line between the cold and the warm air masses. I am assuming that, if we do not get any precipitation, we will remain on the cold side of this divide so, looking to the future, this bodes well for future cold.

Still want MORE SNOW though

Edited February 8, 2012 by Muffelchen

[Craigers]

Spine of yorkshire with 0c northern = UPGRADE

[Harsh Climate]

Overnight charts will be key, no room for downgrades but anymore upgrades shawly = snow for most!

BBC weather said 'could be snow to east of pennines, didn't just say far east! And this will have been made without the new data of the GFS 18z and possibly NAE.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Lewis]

Harsh & Cheeserice them NAE charts look fantastic for a large area of Yorkshire, the whole of Yorkshire infact. Seems we still have this High resolution battle between the NMM and the NAE. It's going to come down to now casting.

For East Yorkshire & N Lincolnshire there's 2 scenarios....

Scenario 1

NAE - Snow about, not as heavy and organized with West Yorkshire/South Yorkshire with the heaviest precipitation, although marginal at times. But East Yorkshire, and N Lincolnshire, not marginal at all, due to colder air from the East.

Scenario 2

NMM - Marginal for the whole of Yorkshire, but East Yorkshire & Northern Lincolnshire just the right side of marginal, precipitation much heavier, chance of some significant snowfall, West Yorkshire & South Yorkshire not in the game.

Personally I would prefer scenario 1 because it at least gives us all a shot at it, and I'm not complaining with the HP blocking, and pushing further Westwards, because in the long term as Muffelchen said, it helps.

All I need to do is show these charts for next week, 2 runs on the bounce now! and it's another upgrade.

Yes please to the above!!

So it's basically down to now casting, with they still being a disagreement with both higher resolution models, on the track/positioning and intensity of the precipitation tomorrow.

NMM 18z Update

Ah, I was hoping for this one to wrap it up, but once again goes against the NAE, it's an upgrade however for parts of West Yorkshire, and a large upgrade for South Yorkshire.

Set 1

Set 2

Set 3

Set 4

This will be my last post for tonight, looking forward to the now casting tomorrow with you guys.

Lewis

Edited February 8, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[Muffelchen]

Spine of yorkshire with 0c northern = UPGRADE

Love the map Craigers. This shows our precarious position on the edge of the cold block beautifully. When things go right in these battleground situations we, in the UK, can get phenomenal amounts of snow. Witness West Wales in 1978 and especially 1982 when there was a snow event that turned into a freezing rain event and then, as the block asserted itself, a further snow event. In this case the precipitation lasted more than 36 hours and the snow drifts were 30 feet high! I for one will never forget it.

Looking at the map again, it is incredible to see the temperature variation across the country and the thinness of the divide compred to elsewhere in Europe. This is what makes our climate, bathed in warm(ish) waters on the edge of the largest continental landmass in the world, so variable and fascinating.

Gonna save this map for posterity

[Mark Bayley]

For here the GFS gives a decent spell of heavy snow, although i'll believe it when i see it. I'm expecting (Sheffield) an icy mix with sleet, with perhaps a little snow as it backs away, as shown by the NMM.

[Cheese Rice]

NMM has come out, main points-

* Percipitation further West

* Front is later by around 1-2 hours, 10am when it starts to feed into Yorkshire

* PPN significantly heavier with three areas of heavy clumps that merge together to form one intense band of rain/snow

* In terms of Percipitation amounts West/South Yorkshire is best placed with it pivoting across these regions.

* In terms of snowfall East Yorkshire is best placed with colder uppers, however it upgrades the snowfall potential for inland areas, but only slightly so nothing special.

[Harsh Climate]

Harsh & Cheeserice them NAE charts look fantastic for a large area of Yorkshire, the whole of Yorkshire infact. Seems we still have this High resolution battle between the NMM and the NAE. It's going to come down to now casting.

For East Yorkshire & N Lincolnshire there's 2 scenarios....

Scenario 1

NAE - Snow about, not as heavy and organized with West Yorkshire/South Yorkshire with the heaviest precipitation, although marginal at times. But East Yorkshire, and N Lincolnshire, not marginal at all, due to colder air from the East.

Scenario 2

NMM - Marginal for the whole of Yorkshire, but East Yorkshire & Northern Lincolnshire just the right side of marginal, precipitation much heavier, chance of some significant snowfall, West Yorkshire & South Yorkshire not in the game.

Personally I would prefer scenario 1 because it at least gives us all a shot at it, and I'm not complaining with the HP blocking, and pushing further Westwards, because in the long term as Muffelchen said, it helps.

All I need to do is show these charts for next week, 2 runs on the bounce now! and it's another upgrade.

Yes please to the above!!

So it's basically down to now casting, with they still being a disagreement with both higher resolution models, on the track/positioning and intensity of the precipitation tomorrow.

This will be my last post for tonight, looking forward to the now casting tomorrow with you guys.

Look out for my edit of this post soon, as when the latest NMM is @ 18z i'll post the charts

Lewis

Good post, ye I agree.

Certainly one where we will have to see what happens before any assumptions can be made. Hopefully we will all get battered with snow tommorow!

[summer blizzard]

-6C in Bingley, hard to believe it will not start as snow in just over 6 hours.

I think on the whole today has seen upgrades for the Leeds area with the freezing rain turning to snow earlier, 18z GFS has this about 9pm now as does BBC.

I shall have raintoday and xcweather open tommorow when i wake up, i just hope that the warm uppers are gone and the precipitation has not arrived.

[Harsh Climate]

-6C in Bingley, hard to believe it will not start as snow in just over 6 hours.

I think on the whole today has seen upgrades for the Leeds area with the freezing rain turning to snow earlier, 18z GFS has this about 9pm now as does BBC.

I shall have raintoday and xcweather open tommorow when i wake up, i just hope that the warm uppers are gone and the precipitation has not arrived.

It's going to be very interesting to see what the precipitation comes in as. Temperature -3 here with a dew point of -5. If it's not snow it will at least be freezing rain which could be just as distruptive! But I do expect a spell of snow today, hopefully sooner than later though.

[sunny scunny]

It's raining here so a good start to the day lol.

[Love Snow]

A strange feel in the air today in Leeds become cloudy in the last half hour,the sky looks like its got snow potential already will it deliver is the question !!!!

[Aaron]

It's -4 here so if it starts raining then it will be very interesting I'm sure..

[LeeSnowFan]

A strange feel in the air today in Leeds become cloudy in the last half hour,the sky looks like its got snow potential already will it deliver is the question !!!!

Yes its too "calm" out there! "Calm before the storm" as they say, look north forecast looks interesting