Yorkshire And Lincolnshire Regional Discussion Thread Part 2

[kold weather]

Its worth mentioning that some of that rain would highly likely be Freezing rain as surface temps look around freezing at the time...

Take a look at the thread I linked above for more chat about that risk.

[Lion]

Hmm, my Hubby will be driving to Leeds and back tomorrow..freezing rain not ideal driving conditions

[Aaron]

Freezing rain.. not really something I want to experience

[Jeremy Shockey]

Thanks Lewis , very informative stuff , regards JS

[andy_leics22]

Lewis... Give me your opinions on Leicesters chance of snow for tomorrow night please Personally from the models i've looked over.. I think it's very borderline but we MAY just be by about 20 miles on the right side of marginal, any little shift in the front though could swing it either way.

[Lewis]

Thanks Lewis , very informative stuff , regards JS

No problem, just looked at the custom skew-t charts for Hull, and I must say I'm rather impressed with the output, they are taken off the higher resolution output, so are very very accurate.

judging by the current set, I'm now more confident of snowfall for East Yorkshire.

If you look at the chart below, the box to the right will show the condition, dew point and temperature are fine

Edited February 8, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[alibabba]

we still have snow laying from Saturdays event and our pavements here in Skegness are lethal..like ice skating rinks in places. From looking at the charts it seems we may be in for more snow thursday/friday looks like I will be staying in for a while...pregnant lady and icy paths dont mix lol

[A.J]

Lewis... Give me your opinions on Leicesters chance of snow for tomorrow night please Personally from the models i've looked over.. I think it's very borderline but we MAY just be by about 20 miles on the right side of marginal, any little shift in the front though could swing it either way.

Andy, you've answered your own question....and to add, just as last saturday, bin the lower resolution models and stick to the NMM or NAE, and then tomorrow bin all model output, and radar watch, now-cast, and poke your head out of the window and look up!

[Cheese Rice]

Interesting forecast.

The UKMO/ECM both goes for snow across the whole of Yorkshire largely due to much colder uppers.

The NAE seems on its own with the heaviness and track of percipitation. While the ECM/GFS/UKMO/NMM all seem quite similar with the track, its really the uppers that are undecided.

Will reserve judgment on the NAE till it next updates as it differs too much.

Have you taken into account surface cold undercutting the front?

[Cheese Rice]

I've been looking at a one day old NAE -__-

Don't know why it did that.

[Lewis]

Interesting forecast.

The UKMO/ECM both goes for snow across the whole of Yorkshire largely due to much colder uppers.

The NAE seems on its own with the heaviness and track of percipitation. While the ECM/GFS/UKMO/NMM all seem quite similar with the track, its really the uppers that are undecided.

Will reserve judgment on the NAE till it next updates as it differs too much.

Have you taken into account surface cold undercutting the front?

ajpoolshark sums it up nicely on his above post, lower resolution models are useless now, it's the high res models we need to be looking at, so it's currently the NAE v the NMM, and it'll be down to now casting and watching the radar tomorrow.

Below sums it up;

NAE

NMM *Model* I'm going with* - Reason why is the NAE during Saturdays event, way way out with positioning and also precipitation totals, and with tomorrows event, we have far less margin for movement/change.

Now you can see why we have very little in the way of margins.

This will be my last post until tonight guys. Feel free for anyone to add me to facebook. http://www.facebook....yorksforecaster

Lewis

Edited February 8, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[trisnow]

only got 10 posts a day

huh? Ah ok, got your edit....

Edited February 8, 2012 by trisnow

[andy_leics22]

Andy, you've answered your own question....and to add, just as last saturday, bin the lower resolution models and stick to the NMM or NAE, and then tomorrow bin all model output, and radar watch, now-cast, and poke your head out of the window and look up!

Well it never hurts to get a 2nd opinion :winky: but yes, I agree... When it comes to within 24 hours of the event it's all about checking the radar, current temps etc...

[Aaron]

Woah, upgrade or what?

[trisnow]

Woah, upgrade or what?

Is that the very latest chart? I have no idea which chart it is but is it based on the latest data?

[Aaron]

Yes, it's from NAE

[Lion]

Well, I'll keep everything crossed. After the last non event I don't want to get all excited over six hours of fine powder lol

[LeeSnowFan]

Well, I'll keep everything crossed. After the last non event I don't want to get all excited over six hours of fine powder lol

Tell me about it!

we had 6 hours of just very fine "snow" it wasnt even doing anything just blowing about in the wind lol didn't even look exciting!

I want big juicy flakes this time! and "PROPER SNOW"

[ITSY]

Here in Leeds the GFS offers us around 20mms of some kind of precipitation. We could be just slightly to North or West, or could be in the perfect position to turn marginality into major snowfall given the high amounts of precipitation. Could go either way yet. Our area is, by the latest GFS run, the second coldest place in the country come saturday which could be an indication of lying snow...unless everything suddenly jumps into one boat overnight, i'd suggest simply looking at the radar and out the window to assess!

EDIT: GFS keeps Leeds within -0 and brings in -2 uppers from tomorrow afternoon (touching -4 at stages on Friday), which bodes well for snow. Add that to UKMO ppn (a downgrade on the whole but brings us fairly heavy ppn) - added to low surface temps, existing snow cover and low dew points, GFS accumulation charts, NAE forecasts and Metoffice warnings and you can see why snow is a distinct possibility.

Edited February 8, 2012 by ITSY

[Lion]

Tell me about it!

we had 6 hours of just very fine "snow" it wasnt even doing anything just blowing about in the wind lol didn't even look exciting!

I want big juicy flakes this time! and "PROPER SNOW"

I feel your pain ..lol Edited February 8, 2012 by honeyplanet

[summer blizzard]

It looks to me as if the 12z models were largely upgrades for Yorkshire.

GFS12z looks very nice with temperatures in Leeds remaining at 0C or below but a freezing rain event until 03:00 Friday when it turns to snow. Interestingly it has the winds backing SE again from 21:00 tommorow so we could see more upgrades.

Personally i think that with around 24 hours of precipitation somewhere could see 20cm+.

[Mr Frost]

Travelling to Leeds on Friday morning by car.

Is it in the firing line 100%?

I would appreciate the thoughts of Storm Force Lewis especially as his video forecasts are superb.

Hopefully he does one for the upcoming snow event!

[summer blizzard]

Here in Leeds the GFS offers us around 20mms of some kind of precipitation. We could be just slightly to North or West, or could be in the perfect position to turn marginality into major snowfall given the high amounts of precipitation. Could go either way yet. Our area is, by the latest GFS run, the second coldest place in the country come saturday which could be an indication of lying snow...unless everything suddenly jumps into one boat overnight, i'd suggest simply looking at the radar and out the window to assess!

EDIT: GFS keeps Leeds within -0 and brings in -2 uppers from tomorrow afternoon (touching -4 at stages on Friday), which bodes well for snow. Add that to UKMO ppn (a downgrade on the whole but brings us fairly heavy ppn) - added to low surface temps, existing snow cover and low dew points, GFS accumulation charts, NAE forecasts and Metoffice warnings and you can see why snow is a distinct possibility.

What are the uppers like from dinner tommorow and do milder come in or just get colder.

GFS looks very wierd if uppers are below freezing because it does not have snow until 3am Friday.

Travelling to Leeds on Friday morning by car.

Is it in the firing line 100%?

I would appreciate the thoughts of Storm Force Lewis especially as his video forecasts are superb.

Hopefully he does one for the upcoming snow event!

I can guarantee that traffic will be at a standstill for you, either due to freezing rain or snow.

Certainly Leeds should avoid proper rain or sleet.

[Aaron]

It's scary to think about.. traffic at Leeds during rush hour is very bad at the best of times.. freezing rain.. ugh.. no idea what kind of chaos we'd be looking at - and I am near a main road!

[summer blizzard]

It's scary to think about.. traffic at Leeds during rush hour is very bad at the best of times.. freezing rain.. ugh.. no idea what kind of chaos we'd be looking at - and I am near a main road!

I am in university while it all starts although for the most part i get to watch from the safety of being 13 floors up.

The snow could be very problematic on Friday morning because it will effectively be falling onto ice.