Yorkshire And Lincolnshire Regional Discussion Thread Part 2

[Jeremy Shockey]

looking more promising for a bit of snow / sleet Thur night / Fri morning for our region on the 12z output. ( and decent agreement of this too within 72 hours )

[sunny scunny]

looking more promising for a bit of snow / sleet Thur night / Fri morning for our region on the 12z output. ( and decent agreement of this too within 72 hours )

Ive only looked at the GFS PPN charts, but it shows most of it too far north.Hopefully things will end up a little further south.

[Lewis]

Very marginal for low lying areas for any snow on Thursday.

Thickness is not supportive, temperatures and dew points neither. One of the main problems is the way the milder uppers make they way across ahead of the front, as the front starts to head across our area, the HP to the East then pushes back in, meaning the band of precipitation stalls, and fizzles out very quickly, on it's NE edge.

Precipitation staying more organized to the far west and NW of England, where pressure is lower.

Lewis

Edited February 7, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[Jeremy Shockey]

i agree SS .... we need it to get further South ....at the moment it might just about make it to the Humber ( and it is very slow moing ) . MetO seems to think we will get some though all the way to Lincs

[Cheese Rice]

Still cloudy here, hoping for a clear up soon though.. the remaining snow should help temperatures plummet.

Also:

http://forum.netweat...ttach_id=130721

Yes I noticed it on the UKMO too, uppers are -1.

Will have a look at different variables in a min to see if we can get anything.

Edited February 7, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Cheese Rice]

Friday is a real knife edge situation. I'd say the further east you are the better placed as the uppers are a touch colder, but then your not exposed to the heaviest percipitation. GFS alludes to surface cold pushing up from continental Europe, If we get that then the uppers will be irrelevant as the cold undercuts the front, so even if we saw uppers of 5.c it would still snow.

BBC five day sums it perfectly.

50/50

Edited February 7, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Zak 92]

Well according to the Met Office im due snow Thursday night, Friday day and Friday night. Sounds good to me lol

[Cheese Rice]

Update: Interestingly the ECM goes for rain turning to snow, starting of as rain in the east and turning to snow over W/N Yorkshire over which I presume is high ground. Which then spread across all areas. Odd as I would expect areas further east to see snow first with the west more marginal.

[Lewis]

Update: Interestingly the ECM goes for rain turning to snow, starting of as rain in the east and turning to snow over W/N Yorkshire over which I presume is high ground. Which then spread across all areas. Odd as I would expect areas further east to see snow first with the west more marginal.

That's because of the timing of the colder air.

The ECMWF is different to the GFS.

The ECMWF is going for the precipitation to be of rain for most parts, then as the colder air undercuts from the East and HP becomes back in charge the precipitation fizzles out on it's eastern/ne edge, and the front stalls across Western parts, turning wintry/snow as the colder air undercuts from the East.

Again, it's not a case of which model is correct, it's going to be a "nowcast" and basically down to timing.

Edited February 7, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[Mellis]

Lowest temp of this winter so far, currently -6.3c and dropping!Still 4 to 4.5cm of snow cover where untouched from around 8 to 8.5cm on Sunday morning.

[Lewis]

First set from the 18z

Second Set

3rd set

4th set - which shows the milder uppers putting up a fight. A few frames into this run the HP from the East will fight back.

Conclusion short term on the 18z run is EA and the SE to get a pasting. Everything is further East, the HP and the milder air/front.

Rain, for a majority of Yorkshire, small chance of N Lincs & East Yorkshire coming in to play, but very doubtful without any elevation. Wolds should be ok.

Edited February 7, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[NorthYorksWeather]

Currently -7.5c with 10cm of snow still in my back garden (my garden gets no sun). Wonder how low it will go

[Aaron]

-5.0c here, dew -8.2

[Cheese Rice]

Yes the GFS is a downgrade for S/W/N Yorkshire, but I'm confident if the GFS is correct East Yorkshire/Lincolnshire would see snowfall.

Will have to wait till the NAE, tomorrow we will have a clearer picture.

[Mellis]

Dropped to -7.3c but has risen to -6.1c due to cloud cover.

[ice 1]

10 mins ago -4.2 now 3.7 in otley

[ice 1]

back to 4.3 now !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Winter Warmer]

-7.9 here in north east donny

[Richie V]

-8.6, falling rapidly since the wind dropped out calm

Edited February 8, 2012 by Richie V

[reef]

Its a shame the cloud has moved in from the east otherwise it could have been a pretty cold night tonight, especially with the snowcover still remaining.

[Cheese Rice]

back to 4.3 now !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dodgy weather station?

Its -6 atm

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGNM/2012/02/08/DailyHistory.html

[Aaron]

The temperature here fell to -7.9c,

Has now risen to -4.9c due to cloud cover, shame, probably would have fallen a lot lower, especially with snow still around

I see the 3 well known Vale of York stations have all fallen below -10C, with Church Fenton leading the way at -12.0C

Edited February 8, 2012 by Aaron

[PMPhotography]

Flippin eck!

Just noticed the MO have forecast snow here from 18.00 on Thursday non stop till 03.00 on Saturday!!

Looks very marginal though.

Funnily enough, last night was the mildest (Or should I say least cold?) night we've had since Saturday with minimum temp -4.5C.

[Aaron]

BBC Breakfast weather, 20cm possible in Yorks/Lincs Friday

Edited February 8, 2012 by Aaron

[Craigers]

Yep just heard that my self! something MUST of changed on the charts for them to say something like that!