Yorkshire And Lincolnshire Regional Discussion Thread Part 2

[waynetheweatherman]

I nearly fell through floor when they said 8 inch, I hope Sheffield cops some, I've been telling people it's coming lol

[yaffle]

When it said "yorks/lincs" do they mean the whole of N Yorks? We've still got about 5cm of lying snow in Strenny and it would be a shame to see it washed away.

[Aaron]

I bet E Yorks and eastern parts of N Yorks could cop some snow.. to be honest I'm not confident for western parts of N Yorks, W Yorks and S Yorks.. keep an eye on dew points and the 0C isotherm..

[LeeSnowFan]

Morning All, another bitterly cold morning with alot of cloud.

So potential for more snow Thursday into Friday? not getting my hopes up this time because the last snow event was a disaster for my area in particular so until I see those big juicy flakes I will wait and see! :smilz38:

[Yorkshiresnows]

When it said "yorks/lincs" do they mean the whole of N Yorks? We've still got about 5cm of lying snow in Strenny and it would be a shame to see it washed away.

Excellent another Strenny..ite.

Snowcover has been excellent here though hasn't it ..... hardly any melt at all !!

Lets hope for a another fresh fall !

Y.S

[Aaron]

Forecast for Leeds is heavy rain

Forecast for Scun-thorpe is snow

A near miss I suspect.

[ITSY]

I suspect those in the South and East of Yorks will do very well - even for Leeds the latest 06Z has it snowing from 0100 saturday to 0100 sunday (albeit preceded by 3 hours of rain), so suspect we'll see something, but nowhere near the amounts further SE. Some could expect a dumping from this.

This:

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/run/90-777.GIF?08-6

Shows how the Eastern hills could get a pasting - we have 8mms of rain here in Leeds if you run it through, before it turns to snow and reaches 24mm, meaning 16cms of snow falling onto wet but cold ground. You can see the marginality involved, its amazingly close! Either way though, somewhere in our region, we should see a LOT of snow within the next 48-56 hours.

Edited February 8, 2012 by ITSY

[kold weather]

Yeah will probably be a decent event in Yorkshire, the NAE is keen on snowfall. Not sure how heavy it'll be as the nmodels aren't overdoing totals yet but its a slow moving set-up so could well see some decent accumulations.

[LeeSnowFan]

Yeah will probably be a decent event in Yorkshire, the NAE is keen on snowfall. Not sure how heavy it'll be as the nmodels aren't overdoing totals yet but its a slow moving set-up so could well see some decent accumulations.

Is it to early to forecast which area's could do well?

everyone has had a good snowfall but us here in "Barnsley" South Yorks didn't do well from last week but would like to think it will be our turn this week? any thoughts?

[summer blizzard]

Certainly looks an interesting event with the BBC having an all sleet event and the GFS6z going for 1C and rain.

One thing i have noticed is that surface winds are forecast to be from the west at the start so that needs an eye keeping on it because on Saturday they were forecast to be SSW but were actually SE.

Uppers seem to be the main reason we do not get snow because they are slightly above 0C to start.

If we can get these just below 0C for the Pennines eastward and get a SE at the surface then we could have game on.

Anybody got the NAE forecast?

And NMM?

[Aaron]

MetO warnings out, all of our region in the warning zone.. but I bet we'll be out of it closer to the time as they become a bit more certain of where it snows and where it rains

Funnily enough, the SE and most of EA are not included

Edited February 8, 2012 by Aaron

[ITSY]

latest BBC forecast at 12:57 shows an all rain with odd flake or two of sleety stuff event for Leeds. The current forecast shows the worst affected areas being the Midlands.

[Aaron]

GFS shows dew points in our region below freezing mostly, with subzero uppers moving in from the east, so all is not lost yet

[Lewis]

Hi guys.

Either upgrade in the models, or the meto/bbc see something we don't.

I ain't had chance to look at the models yet, been out blooming shopping all morning, i'll have a look soon and post all the charts people will want to see, isotherm, snow risk, precip type/precipitation, and uppers etc (along with dew points).

Lewis

[Lion]

Yes please Lewis, do hurry up and put your shopping away

[trisnow]

Yes please Lewis, do hurry up and put your shopping away

I agree

[sparky10]

lol im sure huddersfield will miss out again like last saturday - i know we got loads for the last 2 or 3 winters but yes i am greedy LOL

[Lewis]

Having looked at the models there is slight upgrades for tomorrow, the main upgrades being East Yorkshire, and Lincolnshire holding on to major elements that will aid snowfall, these being the 0c Isotherm (freezing level) and also dew points "although they may become marginal at times".

At the moment, the NMM is in range, and it's picking everything up, but I'm just waiting for my netweather extra to be upgraded, so at the moment I can only access certain lower resolution output, and very few higher outputs from the NMM, should be fixed by tonight hopefully.

The culprit for tomorrows weather is a weather system pushing south from Scotland/Northern England overnight tonight and during the early hours of tomorrow morning, with this is plenty of precipitation, rather slow moving and heavy at times.

Above Chart* Shows a system across us, with HP to the East

The band of precipitation should be knocking on our doors come 7-8am tomorrow, initially the heaviest of the precipitation will be across the far NE, Tyne & Wear/Newcastle area. With the heavier precipitation then affecting Northern Yorkshire, running down through to West Yorkshire, and later South Yorkshire come 2-4pm tomorrow.

As you can see on the above chart, the precipitation will be rather scattered, with heavier precipitation scattered quite widely. The main area of interest is the development out in the North Sea off Eastern Coastal areas of Yorkshire, heading into Lincolnshire.

The band is enabled to pickup more moisture off the North Sea, timing is still to be decided, and it will come down to "now casting" but the colder air should start to fight back from the East.

As this happens. the band of precipitation will stall and center it's self across the whole of Yorkshire and N Lincolnshire, West Yorkshire, N Yorkshire, and NW England.

The upper 850's are very marginal at the moment, but for Eastern areas, 0 to -1/-2 upper 850's is supportive for snowfall, but you need other conditions in favor, for example the 0c Isotherm (which basically means the height at which the temperature is 0c). Current output suggests a 150-200m 0c Isotherm level, dropping down to around 100m at times. I would call this variable "supportive" the Isotherm level will always drop in heavier precipitation anyhow, so given the precipitation is heavy, and not light patchy, it will make the Isotherm level fine throughout.

Dew points are the next thing. I'll get a more accurate output when I have full access to all the NW extra charts tonight, but at the moment dew points go from "O.K" to "Borderline".

They do between some frames, become the wrong side of marginal, and given the resolution not being the highest, they will be more marginal than that chart actually shows at times.

Below is the UK Max temperature for tomorrow at 3pm;

As you can see, day time max's of 2c for far eastern coastal location, 0-1c for areas further inland.

My conclusion for tomorrow, based on the current 06z output, is that Northern, Western and Southern parts of Yorkshire, will initially start with freezing rain, Northern and Western Yorkshire will stay as rain/sleet at best throughout.

Chance of South Yorkshire having precipitation turning to snow during tomorrow night and early hours of Friday when the colder air from the East tries to shunt back westwards.

Eastern Yorkshire and N Lincolnshire, where conditions are more favorable, although for me too marginal to give a decisive decision, will see precipitation mainly as sleet, rain, with wet snow during the heaviest bursts, then possibly later into the day, and early evening/overnight into Friday precipitation may turn to full snow.

Will do another update later on the 12z output if there's any change.

Regards,

Lewis

[kold weather]

Here is a general thread for the threat of snow/wintry mix/freezing rain:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72499-significant-snow-risk-9-10th-february/

[trisnow]

Will do another update later on the 12z output if there's any change.

Regards,

Lewis

Many many thanks for taking the time to do that Lewis, very enjoyable read and has %100 helped me understand more as to where and why the snow may occur.

Fingers crossed for us all!

[sparky10]

thanks lewis that answers my question re snow in hudds LOL

[Lewis]

No problem guys, this though just causes more of a headache, and confusion.

The above chart, shows a pasting for S Yorkshire, East Yorkshire, Lincolnshire.

[Lion]

Thanks Lewis, obviously I like the latter chart that has s,yorkshire down for a pasting

[SnowRules]

Not been a good winter for West Yorkshire.

[Lewis]

Not been a good winter for West Yorkshire.

It's not been a good winter for all of us, but after last years winter, we kind of expected it.