South Central England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3

[SunnySouthCoast]

GTLTW

Your a month out, the signs of Sping have already taken hold in Dorset, only being slightly reigned back in after last weeks colder intrusion.

A sure sign spring is whilst the country talks about freezing, snow & ice, down 'ere in Darzet it's about, "Ooo yur daffodils are looking good this year"

Daffodils started flowering here a few weeks ago!

[karlos1983]

Daffodils started flowering here a few weeks ago!

I've seen none yet? Even with my relatively limited forecasting capabilities, I'm certainly not going to base my Feb predictions on a few dafs popping up!!

Think I'll wait for the 12z

[SunnySouthCoast]

I've seen none yet? Even with my relatively limited forecasting capabilities, I'm certainly not going to base my Feb predictions on a few dafs popping up!!

Think I'll wait for the 12z

I'm not making any forecast based on Daffodils! Merely commenting that the winter, up to now, was so mild that they started flowering here in early January.

[snowysouth]

I will attempt some sort of analysis from here on in towards the middle of February.

Upon reading the MOD thread, once again a whole lot of us would come away rather puzzled by the posts in there. For example, there is talk of the atlantic reinvigorating itself, however my calendar suggests we are in February now, therefore historically the chances of the atlantic coming forcefully in are virtually NIL.

So where does that leave us? There is a glimmer of hope as suggested by others in here of something happening within t-36 hours, see the chart attached which shows a reason for this.

After this, we are basically in a BLOCKED scenario. Having said this, there will be attempts to alter this pattern from other sources. One possibility is for atlantic fronts to try to edge into the extreme WEST of the UK and thereby attempting a repeat of what we all saw over the weekend. A more likely scenario however, is an attack from the NORTH or EAST and I personally would still favour an EASTERLY regime for many more days to come. Whilst, this blocking situation remains, your Air Pressure readings will remain very high in the region of 1030hpa to 1040hpa or so. Temperatures will remain in the COLD to VERY COLD category with Air Frosts making a return where skies clear. Some snow cover will remain, with this being more especially over the higher elevations.

There are plenty of days to come for SNOWFALL to arrive as it is at least remaining COLD. Execeptions to this may be parts of Dorset as always, this being where the first signs of SPRING may start to show themselves, come March.

Bye Bye

gottolovethisweather

I love your enthusiasm, but does this tie in with the latest Met Office outlook?

From the Met Office;

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Monday 20 Feb 2012:

After a cold, largely dry start across central and southern areas of the UK, a gradual trend to a generally changeable weather pattern looks to take place as we move through to mid February. Rain across northwestern areas (snow on northern hills) will gradually extend southeastwards through this week, but will take some time to reach southern Britain. Here, a frost risk remains well into the week, along with the chance of some wintry showers. Towards the end of this period, most parts of the UK are expected to become generally unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds, especially in the north and west, but also at times further south and east. Still a risk of night time frosts at times, but not as cold as recently"

[steve1971]

I love your enthusiasm, but does this tie in with the latest Met Office outlook?

From the Met Office;

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Monday 20 Feb 2012:

After a cold, largely dry start across central and southern areas of the UK, a gradual trend to a generally changeable weather pattern looks to take place as we move through to mid February. Rain across northwestern areas (snow on northern hills) will gradually extend southeastwards through this week, but will take some time to reach southern Britain. Here, a frost risk remains well into the week, along with the chance of some wintry showers. Towards the end of this period, most parts of the UK are expected to become generally unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds, especially in the north and west, but also at times further south and east. Still a risk of night time frosts at times, but not as cold as recently"

[steve1971]

Think the meto sums it up well looks set to be dry here rest of week maybe dull at times to.

[karlos1983]

Well what a run this is turning out to be, some cold nights and dull days ahead. No sign of an upgrade

Edited February 6, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

I love your enthusiasm, but does this tie in with the latest Met Office outlook?

From the Met Office;

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Feb 2012 to Monday 20 Feb 2012:

After acold, largely dry start across central and southern areas of the UK, a gradual trend to a generally changeable weather pattern looks to take place as we move through to mid February. Rain across northwestern areas (snow on northern hills) will gradually extend southeastwards through this week, but will take some time to reach southern Britain. Here, a frost risk remains well into the week, along with the chance of some wintry showers. Towards the end of this period, most parts of the UK are expected to become generally unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds, especially in the north and west, but also at times further south and east. Still a risk of night time frosts at times, but not as cold as recently"

YES!

Futhermore, you are picking up on one individual forecast, albeit from the professionals which will ultimately change tomorrow and the day after.

"Whatever will be, will be" but a VERY COLD February is still on the cards until the model outputs suggest otherwise.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 6, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Well what a run this is turning out to be, some cold nights and dull days ahead. No sign of an upgrade

Did you mean downgrade? Things are remaining very positive for those folks that want COLD and hopefully SNOW.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

[snowysouth]

YES!

Futhermore, you are picking up on one individual forecast, albeit from the professionals which will ultimately change tomorrow and the day after.

"Whatever will be, will be" but a VERY COLD February is still on the cards until the model outputs suggest otherwise.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

I guess it depends whether or not your glass is half full or empty? I do hope I am just being cynical for the record, I would dearly love to wrong, I love Snow! A positive or negative attitude doesn't alter what will or will not happen. :/

After a cold, largely dry start across central and southern areas of the UK, a gradual trend to a generally changeable weather pattern looks to take place as we move through to mid February. Rain across northwestern areas (snow on northern hills) will gradually extend southeastwards through this week, but will take some time to reach southern Britain. Here, a frost risk remains well into the week, along with the chance of some wintry showers. Towards the end of this period, most parts of the UK are expected to become generally unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds, especially in the north and west, but also at times further south and east. Still a risk of night time frosts at times, but not as cold as recently"

Edited February 6, 2012 by snowysouth

[Snowangel-MK]

Daffodils started flowering here a few weeks ago!

Same here.....

...then they got buried in snow :lol:

[flyer]

2 dafs with snow on

Edited February 6, 2012 by flyer

[Mark Parsons]

GTLTW

Your a month out, the signs of Sping have already taken hold in Dorset, only being slightly reigned back in after last weeks colder intrusion.

A sure sign spring is whilst the country talks about freezing, snow & ice, down 'ere in Darzet it's about, "Ooo yur daffodils are looking good this year"

Depends where you live in Dorset, over here in West Dorset there are no daffs yet! Anyway seeing daffs in Feb is only a result of the weather we have had this winter and not a sign of what we could get. I still think there are lots of good opportunities to come providing that block stays putt for snow and cold weather, this winter is far from over yet!!!!!

[Mark Neal.]

Right since the snow is melting in some places today or has gone completely or for those that didn't get any, i'll upload a few pictures..

Pictures Took Yesterday afternoon, though today we have seen a slight melt, with drizzle on/off for much of the day and Fog all day, thick in last 8hrs!

Regards,Mark

Edited February 6, 2012 by Mark 'Ox' Neal

[gottolovethisweather]

2 dafs with snow on

I had to think about that real hard, you must mean the variety "Leyland Dafs" it seems.

[gottolovethisweather]

Right since the snow is melting in some places today or has gone completely or for those that didn't get any, i'll upload a few pictures..

Pictures Took Yesterday afternoon, though today we have seen a slight melt, with drizzle on/off for much of the day and Fog all day, thick in last 8hrs!

Regards,Mark

Thanks Mark,

Pictures like those are always appreciated and as I'm a glass half full type of guy, I am expecting you to send many more snow pics before long.

The weather does not follow the calendar and certainly does not abide to the exact synoptics as hinted at by the models. More appropriately, snow doesn't always avoid Dorset but does seem to like to avoid dumping lots of the stuff over Newbury. It would simply prefer to give snow dumpings to parts to the North and East of our region. Oddly, it snowed at its most heaviest, exactly where I predicted it would in the end.

As for life being cruel, please don't start me on that one, however we are only talking "weather" here. As others have stated, the UK's climate over autumn and winter has been cruel to nature by fooling it into being a different season, entirely. On this note, those who wish to indulge, can visit my blog (linked in my sig below) for plenty more evidence of Phenological indicators.

Winter is a long way from over. Besides, the here and now is statistically amazing as when compared to the mean, my patch is recording a February currently 5c below normal.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 7, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi,

This makes for interesting reading in my opinion.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/02/06/spot-on-snow-forecast-supported-by-latest-science-from-the-met-office/

Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Katiewombat]

Erm its snowing, where did that come from x

[gottolovethisweather]

Erm its snowing, where did that come from x

Well done, Katie. It will only be a few flakes I would imagine but good news nevertheless.

It would help if you were to update your profile with your location too.

In the shorter-term there will be a surface flow from the EAST which is why some folk are getting lucky with snow. Also, potentially very cold at night over the next few days as well.

Wintry Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[Mark Neal.]

Hi,

This makes for interesting reading in my opinion.

http://metofficenews...the-met-office/

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Certainly is a interesting read, i guess with this new technological breakthrough from the Met Office, i will be expecting even more reliable forecasting!!

[coffee lover]

Snowing in some places on the isle of wight

[gottolovethisweather]

Certainly is a interesting read, i guess with this new technological breakthrough from the Met Office, i will be expecting even more reliable forecasting!!

Indeed Mark but I think it is fair to say, us weather geeks ONLY pick up on their BUSTS and not their successful forecasts, would you say?

I do like the way they are now interracting with the public though and I regard this as progress. What with blog posts, Met O presenters doing video forecasts and Tweets on Twitter etc. Nonetheless this will also make them more vulnerable to criticism as well.

I wouldn't mind betting they also had people lurking the forums too during the snowfall event.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 7, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Katiewombat]

Well done, Katie. It will only be a few flakes I would imagine but good news nevertheless.

It would help if you were to update your profile with your location too.

In the shorter-term there will be a surface flow from the EAST which is why some folk are getting lucky with snow. Also, potentially very cold at night over the next few days as well.

Wintry Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Stopped now, will update late when i turn pc on as can't figure how to do it from phone. Will also upload pics from sunday.

I appear to have snow forcast on friday in High Wycombe, fingers crossed for all of us.

Katie

[lynnsim]

Has some light snow here this morning as well. Very fine snow grains though.

[iowpompeylee]

reports of light snow showers around the island today!!!