South Central England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3

[iowpompeylee]

IOWpompeylee......................my prayer for you is coming true, might not get a dollop, but a "smidgeon" is better than nought!!

a wet snow smidgen :-/

[Stoxs]

So does anyone know in Hampshire where rain becomes snow? Winchester across to Romsey maybe? I am 5 miles north of Winchester and its still snow, about 3 cm.

yep i think you might be about right there moisty, high ground like farley mount should be snow covered but down in the valleys i guess it`s wet

[gottolovethisweather]

not this side of midnight tuesday!!!

snow easing off now , not looking like much more tonight, unless the ilusive lp being mentioned appears!!!

still got around the 4cms migh tbe thawing alittle , my hope now is clear skies and a frost!!!

Your evidence is noted above and my comment was for those folk living nearer the coast.

[kent]

Having a ciggie out in my conservatory listening to the rain hammering down on the polycarbonate roof thinking, what a waste lol. But then I say that every year when a cold spell arrives. Dont think I can take another round of excitement building in the model thread about possible events in the near future from charts cherry picked from the depths of outer space which never materialise. Nah,dont believe a word of it. Dont think I will bother to look again. But you know whats really funny? I say that every year too.

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Looking very likely that the low will develop later on this evening according to the NAE with the Isle of Wight being under the centre.

SM

Sorry to ask again can someone explain wot this means please? Many thanks

[slb97]

ooppss deleted me post, had the hiccups!!! We've now got icy rain here...............oh well, better luck next time!

[iowpompeylee]

Sorry to ask again can someone explain wot this means please? Many thanks

more rain lol

[gottolovethisweather]

a wet snow smidgen :-/

Where there is hope, there could be SNOW. The model output as others have suggested are rather reasonable so you never know what is in the future. All you have to do tomorrow is to find some elevation and there will be your snow.

Chin up.

gottolovethisweather

[iowpompeylee]

I did say earlier about the rain hitting my window whilst watching match of the day.....I can tell the future lol

[gottolovethisweather]

Having a ciggie out in my conservatory listening to the rain hammering down on the polycarbonate roof thinking, what a waste lol. But then I say that every year when a cold spell arrives. Dont think I can take another round of excitement building in the model thread about possible events in the near future from charts cherry picked from the depths of outer space which never materialise. Nah,dont believe a word of it. Dont think I will bother to look again. But you know whats really funny? I say that every year too.

A new hobby is needed, maybe?

Please don't begrudge the lucky few though.

[iowpompeylee]

Where there is hope, there could be SNOW. The model output as others have suggested are rather reasonable so you never know what is in the future. All you have to do tomorrow is to find some elevation and there will be your snow.

Chin up.

gottolovethisweather

I always follow the model output.might have to pop in there in a sec to catch up with the pub run. Thanks for cheering me up :-)

[iowpompeylee]

Having a ciggie out in my conservatory listening to the rain hammering down on the polycarbonate roof thinking, what a waste lol. But then I say that every year when a cold spell arrives. Dont think I can take another round of excitement building in the model thread about possible events in the near future from charts cherry picked from the depths of outer space which never materialise. Nah,dont believe a word of it. Dont think I will bother to look again. But you know whats really funny? I say that every year too.

spot on mate.chasing hocus pocus charts.up one day down the next......frustrating.but can't help keep checking though haha

[Barometer Obama]

Sorry to ask again can someone explain wot this means please? Many thanks

e

I think this is referring to the track of the low which will pass across the IW and head across to NE France.

This will mark the end of the precipitation but crucially change the wind direction back to E or NE.

This will drop the temperatures and hence the worry for ice, particularly a problem for those of us who had rain!

[Stoxs]

Your evidence is noted above and my comment was for those folk living nearer the coast.

sorry not intended to question current situation here, i was reffering to your YET.

I was reading your Yet as if the coastal area would see snow tonight.

my comment was aimed at saying that the coast will not see any lying snow before midnight tuesday.

[gottolovethisweather]

My prediction and other opinions from the professionals was for a sleety mix or plain rain over southwestern parts and the coastal regions so all has gone as expected.

I think that sums it up nicely and I remember December 2010 when I had a whole 3 1/2 inches of lying snow AT BEST. Meanwhile, the IOW (forgive me I'm wrong) and parts of the south coast received up to THREE times that amount?

Let us stop the handbag throwing and hope for more to come because eventually most folks get lucky, actually on that note, I must check the lottery.

Best Wishes

gottolovethisweather

spot on mate.chasing hocus pocus charts.up one day down the next......frustrating.but can't help keep checking though haha

And is that not the fun part of the British Isle's weather?

[Stoxs]

Having a ciggie out in my conservatory listening to the rain hammering down on the polycarbonate roof thinking, what a waste lol. But then I say that every year when a cold spell arrives. Dont think I can take another round of excitement building in the model thread about possible events in the near future from charts cherry picked from the depths of outer space which never materialise. Nah,dont believe a word of it. Dont think I will bother to look again. But you know whats really funny? I say that every year too.

Always was going to be a bit iffi near to the coast qwitha southerly wind blowing warmish air inland.

My concerns were for this to effect alot more of the region than maybe a few miles.

if you are within a few miles of the coast you need a cold wind blowing from the land out to sea to get any decent falls in this sort of situation.

Or a big dirty channel low with lots of cold upper air temps, this will then suck up moisture from the channel and dump it as snow on the land right up to the sea.

Keep the faith , the models predictions for this weekend have been pretty good, we were always going to be marginal.

[gottolovethisweather]

sorry not intended to question current situation here, i was reffering to your YET.

I was reading your Yet as if the coastal area would see snow tonight.

my comment was aimed at saying that the coast will not see any lying snow before midnight tuesday.

Ok, fair enough but the yet was designed keep morale up and I must say the wind swing to the North may help even those on the coast but who knows.

The future is not known just merely interpreted by us weather geeks.

Well done on your SNOW BTW.

[OldMetMan]

Sorry to ask, newbie here whats closed circulation. Many thanks

Katie

Ps - -0.1 and still snowing in high wycombe.

Hi Katie, a closed circulation is an actual low pressure centre, a closed isobar where there is easterly winds to its north. This is as opposed to a trough, which is just a kink in the isobars, like a "U" shape, whereas a closed centre is "O" shaped. Not sure I am explaining it very well! Be easier to draw it but can't do that here!

Take a look at the surface pressure charts and you will see what I mean by a trough! If an actual closed isobar appears in the middle of the trough, then that's closed circulation. It does of course depend on what intervals the isobars are drawn at too.

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?hour=0〈=en&map=UK

[kent]

A new hobby is needed, maybe?

Please don't begrudge the lucky few though.

Who said I did? good luck to em. Only commentating on my own situation.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi Katie, a closed circulation is an actual low pressure centre, a closed isobar where there is easterly winds to its north. This is as opposed to a trough, which is just a kink in the isobars, like a "U" shape, whereas a closed centre is "O" shaped. Not sure I am explaining it very well! Be easier to draw it but can't do that here!

Take a look at the surface pressure charts and you will see what I mean by a trough! If an actual closed isobar appears in the middle of the trough, then that's closed circulation. It does of course depend on what intervals the isobars are drawn at too.

http://meteocentre.c...〈=en&map=UK

Thanks again OMM. We can all learn from your analysis and the PROS seem to have got this one spot on, wouldn't you say?

Edited February 4, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Dean E]

Sorry to ask again can someone explain wot this means please? Many thanks

Sorry for the slow reply!

This is where the circulation along the front is going to form, and this may tend to pep up the precipitation as it heads off South East to France. You may see some heavy, wet snow from this. But only this will be temporary while the winds switch to a more E or NE direction.

SM

[gottolovethisweather]

Right then, what of the future?

Maybe this post in the MOD will help? or

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2254044

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 4, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Stoxs]

the thaw has set in!!!!

getting wet out there, hear the snow falling from the trees!

lets get these skies clear and a frost now!!!

[OldMetMan]

Judeging by the latest surface chart at 22Z, the eastward movement of the milder air appears to have stopped near the Dorset/Hampshire border. In the next couple of hours, perhaps a bit more, the winds should begin to back to more of an easterly direction, so there is still a slim chance then of coastal snow, although the bulk of the precipitation will be heading into the Channel.

Rain persisting here with no change in temp - 1.6 but the wind has already backed slightly, more to the SE now.

[SOTONSNOW]

Hi Katie, a closed circulation is an actual low pressure centre, a closed isobar where there is easterly winds to its north. This is as opposed to a trough, which is just a kink in the isobars, like a "U" shape, whereas a closed centre is "O" shaped. Not sure I am explaining it very well! Be easier to draw it but can't do that here!

Take a look at the surface pressure charts and you will see what I mean by a trough! If an actual closed isobar appears in the middle of the trough, then that's closed circulation. It does of course depend on what intervals the isobars are drawn at too.

http://meteocentre.c...〈=en&map=UK

Thanks OMM - It would seem years of experience are far superior to the more modern oregan weather station I have which is still indicating snow with a temp 1.9C and dew point of 2C even though it is absolutely 100% pure rain outside !!