South Central England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3

[Andrew snow hope]

On the 12z GFs this brings the snow in so much more from the east and it must be tracking north then heading south east and then veering west. It looks different from last night.

going to compare the others now

From this run we should all have some fun me thinks!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

[Stoxs]

good evening folks

well it`s wednesday and the models can smell a weekend coming!

when i first saw the models of this thursday/friday i thought no chance , uppers to warm, no 528dam, surface cold enough but thats about it.

Now moving onto the latest forecasts things are wlooking better for the southern area.

latest precipitaton charts are showing the heaviest PPN heading south west from say the wash to the severn estuary.

The sweet spot at the moment is Oxford, swindon, Bristol, Dartmoor, upto 20 cms over high ground.

this isn`t to say other places will see snow and some decent amounts upto 10cms further east.

Possiblly as far as London, down through sussex could well see some snow a guess upto 5cms.

as for the IOW i think you could see some snow fall, this is a good direction for IOW as the is little sea track for any ppn to warm.

It will not take much for the PPN to run further east as did the event last weekend, thus moving any heavy PPn towards our area.

Low ground in devon and cornwall could well only see rain as temps are alot higher .

A very interesting few days coming up. nearly 2 weeks cold spell still ramping up for southern england!!! Bring it on.

[gottolovethisweather]

As others are no doubt aware there is another thread on this potential event and I have taken this following post from there.

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2260808

I believe this to be very sensible advice at this stage, however I think I would be preparing myself for a long night tomorrow night.

As a guess I would say the WEST of the UK is best positioned, however we simply do not know at current time.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 8, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[IanM]

On the 12z GFs this brings the snow in so much more from the east and it must be tracking north then heading south east and then veering west. It looks different from last night.

going to compare the others now

From this run we should all have some fun me thinks!

http://www.theweathe.../datmdlout.aspx

Hi Andrew

You could use the charts on the site here too - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= - we kind of like them ;-)

Ian

[Stoxs]

also folks don`t forget

at the moment rain for scotland and at best snizzle for kent!!!!

our area Snow!!

so we all know kent will end up with 20cms and we will have the snizzle!!lol

[gottolovethisweather]

good evening folks

when i first saw the models of this thursday/friday i thought no chance , uppers to warm, no 528dam, surface cold enough but thats about it.

Now moving onto the latest forecasts things are wlooking better for the southern area.

latest precipitaton charts are showing the heaviest PPN heading south west from say the wash to the severn estuary.

The sweet spot at the moment is Oxford, swindon, Bristol, Dartmoor, upto 20 cms over high ground.

this isn`t to say other places will see snow and some decent amounts upto 10cms further east.

Possiblly as far as London, down through sussex could well see some snow a guess upto 5cms.

I agree on the whole Stox but I'd lay off the predictions of snowfall amounts and depths etc. Having said that, we are ALL guilty of that from time to time. I say this especially as the official forecasts are being much more reserved in their predictions at this time. I just hope some folk who claim "it never snows here!" will get the snow they crave. The fact remains for my location, 3 1/2 inches in December 2010 and 2 inches so far this February are the best snowfalls I have had.

Game on for some yet again!

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 8, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[flyer]

For all us cautiously optimistic folk out there here is a reminder of what we are aiming for.

and a little magic.

[divadee]

For all us cautiously optimistic folk out there here is a reminder of what we are aiming for.

and a little magic.

For here we need a hell of a lot of magic!!!

[Stoxs]

yup agree GTLTW

thanks for the comments

I am surprised your max depths are that low, what about 2009?

Remember a decent event that produced about 1inch here and around 7/8 inchs in Basingstoke. cant remember how Newbury got on in that one.

[gottolovethisweather]

yup agree GTLTW

thanks for the comments

I am surprised your max depths are that low, what about 2009?

Remember a decent event that produced about 1inch here and around 7/8 inchs in Basingstoke. cant remember how Newbury got on in that one.

If you could confirm the approxomate date I could look it up but the last memorable event for me in truth was the 28th January 2004 when it produce next to everything. Rain, Sleet, Snow (with an accumulation of 3 inches or so), Hail and Thunder were all to be had, this being alongside a journey from nearby Thatcham at rush-hour which lasted two and half hours.

Those were the days.

gottolovethisweather

[Stoxs]

MMMMMmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

I think December 2009, best i can say at the moment, remember travelling to Crookham Common, off the 34 travelling toward newbury took nearly 1 hour to get from 1 roundabout to the other!

sorry for the vaugeness thats the best i can do.

not sure now LOL

[coram]

There will be a light dusting in the north west of Hampshire and the north east of Dorset. Even if things end up a bit further south and east, it will be rain towards the coast because of a southerly wind.

[saintkip]

There will be a light dusting in the north west of Hampshire and the north east of Dorset. Even if things end up a bit further south and east, it will be rain towards the coast because of a southerly wind.

I like the way you say it with such certainty, no IMO here. In my opinion everywhere north of Winchetser in Hampshire will get a nice covering

[liam300]

Temperatures dont look good from the met office daytime of 3c that wont accumulate snow im afraid

[snowysouth]

For all us cautiously optimistic folk out there here is a reminder of what we are aiming for.

and a little magic.

Nowt wrong with that. I am craving a scene like that myself, as it hardly never Snows here

[Purplepixii]

well I'll eat my hat if we get any decent snow here!

[Stoxs]

Temperatures dont look good from the met office daytime of 3c that wont accumulate snow im afraid

The Precipitation is not going to get here until midnight onwards, plenty of time for a frost to set in before the moisture comes!!

I do agree marginal is the best word for low lying areas, as someone else mentioned if the wind is a southerly then coastal regions may struggle.

anyone who is at elevation should be better placed.

[iowpompeylee]

Another non event I'm afraid for us further south.

[sclarke]

Not sure how people are saying ''non-event'' - what models show this? To be honest the fax charts and the models show this event favouring us further south more than the last one.

Also the wind looks set to be from the east, so I have no idea where someone has got the southerly wind from.

[Joneseye]

I agree on the whole Stox but I'd lay off the predictions of snowfall amounts and depths etc. Having said that, we are ALL guilty of that from time to time. I say this especially as the official forecasts are being much more reserved in their predictions at this time. I just hope some folk who claim "it never snows here!" will get the snow they crave. The fact remains for my location, 3 1/2 inches in December 2010 and 2 inches so far this February are the best snowfalls I have had.

Game on for some yet again!

gottolovethisweather

I must live in a different Newbury to you. We had about a cm on Saturday night and between 6 and 8 inches in Dec 2010 with some places on Greenham Common over a foot deep.

As for the event this Thursday night it's wait and see for me. Everything was looking positive last Saturday only for the dew points to rise rapidly and the wind direction to change tack to a poor direction for snow. 20 miles north and it was a much better outcome.

Edited February 8, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Crockel]

Not sure how people are saying ''non-event'' - what models show this? To be honest the fax charts and the models show this event favouring us further south more than the last one.

Also the wind looks set to be from the east, so I have no idea where someone has got the southerly wind from.

I have got to say I am with you on this one. At the weekend just gone we had milder air moving from west to east across us which meant little of the County saw much snow and the coast mostly saw rain. Tomorrow/ Friday's action is travelling more north east to south west which will help keep us more in the continental air. I would suspect most of it would stay as snow this time even down towards the coast. My greatest concern if I am being selfish though is how far east it will stay- the biggest risk it seems to me is that most of the action will be further to the west!

Edited February 8, 2012 by Crockel

[gottolovethisweather]

well I'll eat my hat if we get any decent snow here!

quite possible but not definite.

Another non event I'm afraid for us further south.

quite possible but not definite.

Looking border line for the iow on the weather forecasts.....I'm carrying on as normal this weekend..

quite possible but not definite.

For here we need a hell of a lot of magic!!!

quite possible but not definite.

[gottolovethisweather]

By the way, I do like the fact that so many in here have clairvoyant capabilities.

Anyway, off to bed early tonight so I'm ready for an all-nighter this time tomorrow.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Not sure how people are saying ''non-event'' - what models show this? To be honest the fax charts and the models show this event favouring us further south more than the last one.

Also the wind looks set to be from the east, so I have no idea where someone has got the southerly wind from.

Please ignore the experts as there are folk in here that have clearly seen the future already.

Edited February 8, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[bobbydog]

By the way, I do like the fact that so many in here have clairvoyant capabilities.

Anyway, off to bed early tonight so I'm ready for an all-nighter this time tomorrow.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Please ignore the experts as there are folk in here that have clearly seen the future already.

i tend to use my crystal ball....

[Purplepixii]

By the way, I do like the fact that so many in here have clairvoyant capabilities.

It's not clairvoyance - it's knowing that on the south coast our average/mean temperatures are warmer than those inland therefore what is a snow event for many is a rain event for us. No magic, no qualification from Hogwarts needed - just common sense!

Edited February 8, 2012 by Purplepixii