London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 11

[danm]

I think tomorrows event is far more of a case of radar watching and nowcasting than last weekends snow event. There is far more uncertainty this time. Still think the bullseye will be somewhere around the Midlands, but there is a fair chance that parts of our region could see a couple of cm's.

[Lampostwatcher]

Keep your eyes peeled on radar guys !

Plus matt Taylor just mentioned still VERY uncertain on the track of the band

[Cirrusly Snowy]

I think tomorrows event is far more of a case of radar watching and nowcasting than last weekends snow event. There is far more uncertainty this time. Still think the bullseye will be somewhere around the Midlands, but there is a fair chance that parts of our region could see a couple of cm's.

A couple of cm, how monotonous.

[yamkin]

Mr Yamkin, I see you are lurking. Has Croydon been moved 100 miles west to bring it into the snow zone, or does the hot off the presses MO update put you in the firing line even if the Borough stays where it is?

Advisory from the MetO to Croydon Council still shows snow

[Biggin]

Can I ask is it the euro cold that has pushed this further West ??

[Ice Day]

Keep your eyes peeled on radar guys !

Plus matt Taylor just mentioned still VERY uncertain on the track of the band

Yes, just saw that and noticed the graphics had the snow as far east as the centre of London. A 50 mile shunt either way is probably realistic 24 hours out! Let's all breath in together!!!

[danm]

A couple of cm, how monotonous.

Better than nothing. I wouldn't turn down a cm's to top up the snow we have left.

[bobbydog]

Guys, TEITS has just posted on the model thread that the NAE is wrong at 3hrs can you believe that, he says check the NAE at 3hrs over scotland then check the radar. AMAZING it can be so wrong at that range!!!!!

not that amazing really john, the GFS, for example, is nearly always wrong at 3hrs. it just illustrates my point earlier- ignore the models, watch the radar and the lamp-posts!

[kold weather]

NMM looks decent, the other models much less so. I still think the NW of this region has a decent chance of snow but I think away from that we'll lucky to get much, if anything.

Can't complain though as we had a good load over the weekend.

[Jo S]

Still have loads of snow out side but frozen solid,and very still out there.

[Cirrusly Snowy]

This will be pushed further east, mark my words! TEITS has raised a very valid point which people can't seem to grasp, if the NAE (the most detailed PPN chart we can see) is wrong at +3 hours, what chance does it have at 24+ and further? The fact is that band of rain over Scotland is a good 100 miles further east than the NAE has predicted, this would only mean that the East would benefit, trust me!

[Lampostwatcher]

The rain in Scotland is further east than what was forecasted earlier

[Frosty_wsm]

This will be pushed further east, mark my words!

Keep on dreaming You lot had your fun and games at the weekend, while us in the west country had loads of rain to deal with, now it's our turn for some fun and games

[Jo S]

This will be pushed further east, mark my words! TEITS has raised a very valid point which people can't seem to grasp, if the NAE (the most detailed PPN chart we can see) is wrong at +3 hours, what chance does it have at 24+ and further? The fact is that band of rain over Scotland is a good 100 miles further east than the NAE has predicted, this would only mean that the East would benefit, trust me!

Im trusting you then,or im coming for youuuuuuuuuuuuuu

[john pike]

interesting fax chart for sunday

[yamkin]

interesting fax chart for sunday

Interesting fronts, but look at the very cold air from Siberia :help: :cold:

[Lampostwatcher]

Just confirms what I was saying earlier bbc matt Taylor just showed whole of London with snow for a few hours before moving away sw

[john pike]

one consolation for us lot

at least we havent got to do a forecast :wacko:

[Baynesey (snow chaser)]

not that amazing really john, the GFS, for example, is nearly always wrong at 3hrs. it just illustrates my point earlier- ignore the models, watch the radar and the lamp-posts!

the GFS is run at a lower res at that range, thats why it can be wrong, the NAE is a higher res short range model

Edited February 8, 2012 by Baynesey (snow chaser)

[willinkent]

oh no the tragedy..... its 1c and my snowman's head has fallen off..... the humanity..... oh well considering this winter he had a good run....

[steveinsussex]

Dont get your hopes up, expect nothing.

If anything does fall out the sky its a bonus, except if its a large meteor, or a plane, or a pig.

[pages]

Well the latest NMM and NAE have moved tomorrows event further west misiing the south east corner. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

But they are both incorrect at +3 with the rain over scotland much further east, so don't know what to think.

what does Steve Murr think comparing the radar do the models, will the fact that they are already wrong make a big difference? and if so forr the better or worse?

[willinkent]

or a nuke, wouldnt want a nuclear winter.......

[Cirrusly Snowy]

Dont get your hopes up, expect nothing.

If anything does fall out the sky its a bonus, except if its a large meteor, or a plane, or a pig.

Pig might come in handy, specially with the food price hike!

[steveinsussex]

The fact Steve Murr hasnt posted tonight is very telling