Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - April 2012 Onwards

[Robbie Garrett]

It was an impressive storm - I was walking to Waterloo East Station with it above me. Shame I left my umbrella at work - there were a few terrifying moments where I thought my contact lenses were sliding down my face after being washed out of my eyes thanks to the torrential rain

Let's hope so - you can't beat an imported thunderstorm from France!

It was a very nice structure, that was probably the best looking well defined CB I have seen in years...

Yeah, I don't remember one recently except the day I came back from Turkey, which was July 7th 2009 (That was a very good MCS??) But come to think of it, the June 27th 2011 storm, was that an MCS, because it only lasted 2hrs.

A proper decent french Import would of course be a rather big MCS (MCC) and looking at just the 12z runs, there's a lot of cape around France and quite a bit over the UK with a low centered over the Bay of Biscay.

This is a proper storm...

[Eskimo]

Dear god let me have something like that this year!

[Liam J]

Thanks mate, kind of waffled on a bit on that video though, infact I do on most I don't know when to shut up haha.

But yeah your right, I expect shower activity to be quite widespread tomorrow, going by the NMM I wouldn't expect the heaviest of the cells to be across the South and South East like today and over the past few days, but then again, the current trend and tendency of inconsistency between the GFS low res against the NMM high res with regards to the placement of the energy (higher cape values) is quite disturbing.

The GFS low res distributes it on a larger scale and has it placed much further South, then you look at the NMM and it's smaller areas of energy, less distributed also..

Suppose it's going to be down to what happens, happens.... tomorrow once again it's radar watching.

Do you think if I invented some kind of radar watching glasses I would be a rich man? could market them on here lol.

Lewis

As soon as I heard the voice I knew who it was lol just a different username....... You didn't really waffle (to much) hehe

Here's hoping tomorrow brings a smile to many our faces in the storm starved areas, model PPN charts are never 100% with predictions so I expect a more widespread impact as the low influences further north. Some heating from the sun will go along way to help tomorrow as well - giving convection that extra oomph.

Edited April 19, 2012 by Liam J

[Aaron]

Dear god let me have something like that this year!

It's been so long since I've seen a proper storm, and by proper I mean lightning every minute or so with very loud thunder, torrential, large temperature drop and flickering lights.. this last occurred here in June 2009, on the 15th to be precise, when over an inch of rain fell on Leeds in 20 - 25 minutes with flash floods and power outages all over. I'll kill to see it again!

Edited April 19, 2012 by Aaron

[Liam J]

Some lively looking shower activity out over the North Sea atm following behind the band of PPN that's sitting through eastern Scotland and down into NE England.

Edited April 19, 2012 by Liam J

[Nick F]

Storm forecast for tomorrow, rinse and repeat of today, nothing severe, but some photogenic skies no doubt:

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

[stormchaser1]

Still waiting! for first storm of the year, Hopefully this year will be more productive than last year,!

[Supacell]

Lightning detected already around the Liverpool area!

[Aaron]

Lightning detected already around the Liverpool area!

Yeah, that was already reported on the regional forums, quite a surprise. Here's hoping today is a lot better for us.

Edited April 20, 2012 by Aaron

[Liam J]

Things are already kicking off over SW Scotland also N&W Wales and the Irish Sea where a more organised area of showers has developed. Also looking interesting around the Cheshire area towards Liverpool. It's gonna go bang..... Good luck folks

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

Edited April 20, 2012 by Liam J

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Not even 8 o clock and we have some ignition! Looks like a few spawning in south west wales and Coming into Scotland...Good luck all today very good early signs! The sun is already out and there is a hell of a lot of energy to tap into today !!

[Coast]

Lots of rain yesterday and some amazing skies which showed great potential but thunderstorms didn't quite get down as far South as my location.

What about today? the Netweather forecast has a similar outlook to yesterday:

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

ESTOFEX say:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 20 Apr 2012 06:00 to Sat 21 Apr 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 19 Apr 2012 22:06

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Low geopotential heights with cold mid-level temperature cover most parts of Europe. Yesterday's soundings show good mid-level lapse rates and well mixed low-levels. BL moisture is scarce but still adequate for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Better moisture availability on the mesoscale may assist in a localized enhanced thunderstorm coverage. Despite weak shear, a lowered WBZ with a dry and deep subcloud layer provide a somewhat more supportive environmental set-up for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts, mainly in the 50-% thunderstorm area. There a model signs that storms over Austria and parts of Serbia/SW-Romania tend to cluster during the evening hours with a localized heavy rainfall risk.

Model QPF agree well with diversity in CAPE magnitude (EZ lower, GFS more aggressive). Confidence in widespread initiation is high so we issued a very large general thunderstorm area.

UKASF:

Storm Forecast

Slight

Forecaster: Chris

Last Updated: 2012-04-19 22:36:00

Valid: 2012-04-20 00:00:00 - 2012-04-20 23:59:00

Areas Affected:

Most of Britain and Ireland (excluding SW England and Cumbria)

Synopsis:

Similar to the previous few days, a large slowly filling area of low pressure will dominate the pattern across all of the British Isles.

Discussion:

Another broadly "convective" day is likely associated with the area of low pressure. Any frontal boundaries once associated with the filling low will have decayed with several vorticity induced upper troughs continuing to be the focal point for more potent convection.

Cloud will continue to be an inhibiting factor for higher surface instability - however where cloud breaks CAPE values of 200-400j/kg are possible and with ELTs of around -40C cloud tops should be high enough (about 18K ft) for some sferics. Highest CAPE looks to be across across central/eastern England and Ireland, so those areas are most likley to hear a few rumbles of thunder.

Convection will be quite widespread across the region, however shear, both low level and deep layer will be weak therefore convection will be unorganised and in most case short lived. Some local convergence, could help to enhance a few cells.

With cold air aloft and little shear the main threats will be brief heavy downpours, a few sferics and some small, soft hail.

SkyWarn and TORRO have nothing so far.

[Coast]

A few charts to indicate what might be on its way:

Looking to me like a repeat of yesterday with Wales and along the M4 into London and beyond (maybe in a band 40 miles either side?) in the firing line for a few claps of thunder, maybe some light hail today

[Chris.R]

Very angry if I slept through anything here, although St. Hellen's isn't really Liverpool, it's over 10 miles to the east so I dout I would have heard anything anyway.

[SteveB]

Looks like showers are forming in a line to the South of me. Hopefully showers will form out West & track a little further North.

Missed the really good storms yesterday around these parts, hoping for a direct hit in the next few days.

[Chris.R]

Liverpool airport going with thunderstorm hail from 0600 to 1900 today and they did indeed report thunder in the visinity at 0600. If I've missed a storm I will be so frustrated, but I should know that merseyside doesn't get storms when their forecast but only when their not or at stupid times of the day when your asleep and you miss then! Now that's logical isn't it.

[Liam J]

Just arrived at work in Keswick, calm winds with some rather tasty looking clouds forming, perhaps some early showers exploding into life over the next few hours. Very hazy and 5c with not a breath of wind.

[Kain]

Well Iv'e actually given up expecting anything now as the stuff we have had last week and this week seems to head to east midlands and london so meh. West Midlands seems to always do poorly when it comes to storms ^^

[Marcus_surfer]

Looks like eastern areas doing better than yesterday at this rate

[SalopWatcher]

Hammering it down here, looks like were in for a prolonged spell of rain on the radar, but nothing remotley thundery at the moment.

[Liam J]

A few showers on the radar over West Cumbria and along the coast, hopefully these will become more widespread later. The main action is over Central and Northern Wales for the the time being.

Edited April 20, 2012 by Liam J

[DeepSnow]

Looks like eastern areas doing better than yesterday at this rate

I get the feeling it could be a while before we get anything!!

[A.J]

just had an impressive hail shower here in south staffs....very encouraged by the rapid convection/development...This cell has gone up in 10 minutes and has produced pea to penny sized hail...impressive indeed, and now eyes west to whats developing over mid wales....

[A.J]

a couple of radar grabs to illustrate the rapid convection...look at the 0950 grab centered on my postcode, then the 1000 grab

images courtesy of NW Extra

[Joey.G]

Good morning storm fans, another day of good potential and Ive got an unexpected day off, where should I go? Or should I stay put? Good luck to all out there anyhow