Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012

[Coast]

Unfortunately I Have no beers as I used them whilst Salivating at my first day on the Netweather 2012 StormChase

Mmmmmm, Belgium imports.....

[dallas]

Unfortunately I Have no beers as I used them whilst Salivating at my first day on the Netweather 2012 StormChase

5,000 Cape Anyone

Looks like you have at least 3000 cape around DFW for your start too

[VillagePlank]

The rain is likely to be heavy ... at times

Yeah, Harry - but let's be honest : we want lightning, tornadoes, supercells, and large hail - sod the rain

Edited May 2, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Neilsouth]

Those storms,heavy rain are decaying in europe as they get closer it also feels no way like monday, it's cold outside!

I have my doubts

[Bluebreezer54]

Boar - super post - very objectively put and also very helpful for all on the forum to learn a thing or two.

Absolutely agree. I found that extremely informative and educational. Many thanks, and to all the others on here who provide so much.......including but not limited too, Coast and Weather09 etc.

Edited May 2, 2012 by Bluebreezer54

[Coast]

Following on from BW's excellent analysis, here's a chart of moisture directional flow for the time under consideration:

I'd love it to be Kent and Sussex, but I'm going to say the main thrust may be right through the heart of Essex with places like Colchester and Chelmsford on the agenda to start off. There's an awful lot of 'if's and maybes' before then though, so radar watching through Holland and Belgium are a first priority. Here are a couple of sites to watch during the evening before the NW radar starts picking things up:

http://www.euclid.org/realtime.html

http://en.allmetsat....ing-belgium.php currently showing:

Radar:

http://www.buienradar.be/

http://wolken.buienradar.nl/

Liking this already!!

Belgium webcams:

http://www.skystef.b...bcambelgium.htm

[Paul Sherman]

Looks like you have at least 3000 cape around DFW for your start too

Yh just seen the Landing day (7th) and the Cape is Off The Scale. Cue 500ft drops as we approach.

Anyways back to today and Victor is right it does not feel very condusive today........But it was only 12c on Monday when those Electrical Storms were kicking off, remember the conveyer is far above our heads mixing the EML (Elevated Mixed Layer) and it is this Plume where the Elevated Stuff feeds from NOT SbCape.

Have had T-Storms in US Before when the temp was 7c and yes they were Severe.

[legritter]

just like to say that i once thought i was the cats whiskers when it came to weather knowledge ,and my wife proudly told her friends that i was a fellow of RM Sc , but no longer ,as i stoped my membership and they have now changed the goalpoasts a bit on qualifications . i just want to say a big thank you to the likes of COAST AND BOAR WRINKLE STORM for their contributions ,very informative . since using a computer for 3 yrs i suddenly realise there are plenty of VERY knowledgeable people out there .any how back to the discussion ,gone flat calm here and a bit more humid ,watching sat of france things seem to be developing quite nicely .PS thanks to all who post charts etc , my grey matter is getting less , TOO much smoking no dought ,cheers

[VillagePlank]

GFS 6z, puts a great big target on Kent at 3am

Edited May 2, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Coast]

i suddenly realise there are plenty of VERY knowledgeable people out there

Not me, I just look at pictures and guess!!!

GFS 6z, puts a great big target on Kent at 3am

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Is it okay to get a bit excited now ?

[VillagePlank]

Not me, I just look at pictures and guess!!!

Nor me - I is a amateur, too - its the professionals who have looked at oodles of charts like these and can make a call about how likely they are to actually occur; which, more often than not, is the difference between the goodies and a late night for nothing.

The bullseye on Kent is about 60 miles from your estimate, Coast - I reckon the 12z at approx 4pm, and radar watching from 10pm will detail what's going to happen.

Is it okay to get a bit excited now ?

Certainly not. What do you think this is, a weather forum?

Edited May 2, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Harry]

Is it okay to get a bit excited now ?

While there are a number of the necessary ingredients, IMO it is slightly less favourable than Monday night.

That said feel free to get excited, though I would recommend going to bed and setting a 3am alarm, rather than staying up all night! While thunderstorms on Monday night erupted from around 5pm, tonight will be a much latter kick off and probably entirely reliant on imports rather than home grown pre-events if you like.

Will be interesting though dont get me wrong

[VillagePlank]

Anyways back to today and Victor is right it does not feel very condusive today........

Hmm, I don't know: here in Erith, T = 12C, and Td =9C, and sun is trying really hard to break out. As you say, however, and as it shows on the v-adv charts, the storms are likely to be elevated, if they occur - with associated crystal clear CGs, perhaps?

[VillagePlank]

While there are a number of the necessary ingredients, IMO it is slightly less favourable than Monday night.

That said feel free to get excited, though I would recommend going to bed and setting a 3am alarm, rather than staying up all night! While thunderstorms on Monday night erupted from around 5pm, tonight will be a much latter kick off and probably entirely reliant on imports rather than home grown pre-events if you like.

Will be interesting though dont get me wrong

Yes, quite true, virtually no chance of home grown stuff today; although as stuff starts moving in, it could kick of a sparse one or two. I think that heavy rain is a certainty, the trick is trying to figure out if the cells get electrified.

[Coast]

Is it okay to get a bit excited now ?

Only as long as you can contain yourself within the rules of the forum and human dignity, as I do.....

[Paul Sherman]

Hmm, I don't know: here in Erith, T = 12C, and Td =9C, and sun is trying really hard to break out. As you say, however, and as it shows on the v-adv charts, the storms are likely to be elevated, if they occur - with associated crystal clear CGs, perhaps?

Yh the Dp's are in our favour and if that Sun can break through could see them climb to say 11-12c which would be very nice, Surely not 2 events within 48 hours with Clear Cg's in the Uk.

Lol would love it to come true as my little Spot looking towards Kent would just love to be hit with a Cg over the Water.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Only as long as you can contain yourself within the rules of the forum and human dignity, as I do.....

ill try too...

[VillagePlank]

Yh the Dp's are in our favour and if that Sun can break through could see them climb to say 11-12c which would be very nice, Surely not 2 events within 48 hours with Clear Cg's in the Uk.

Lol would love it to come true as my little Spot looking towards Kent would just love to be hit with a Cg over the Water.

I will certainly be stopping orf for a bottle of Malbec, and big bag of crisps on the way home from work - just in case. Looking toward the 12z for clarification, of course

Edited May 2, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[NO LONGER POSTING]

dam them so electrified storms over Belgium!

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=lightning

[VillagePlank]

dam them so electrified storms over Belgium!

http://www.meteox.co...soort=lightning

That's the destabilised plume that's heading our way - it will certainly bring us rain, but whether or not it keeps it's electrifimication (made up word!) is what's up for grabs tonight.

[DeepSnow]

Maybe I should move to the south east? lol Any storms tonight please send them to us storm starved people in the west!!

[Coast]

That's the destabilised plume that's heading our way - it will certainly bring us rain, but whether or not it keeps it's electrifimication (made up word!) is what's up for grabs tonight.

Yep, need that plume of air to catch the late night Zeebrugge ferry!

[Robbie Garrett]

Just had a look at the TAF, it highlights a 40% of Thunderstorm tonight for London Heathrow, something Monday didnt.

That gives me a confidence boost for a show.

Edited May 2, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Chris K]

Lots of good information today cheers guys

It does mean however that I've come to the conclusion I will not bother staying up haha. Hardly saw a thing Monday night let alone the chance of tonight.