Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012

[Coast]

Getting closer, a few more hours and a few miles yet, but fingers crossed for many!

[VillagePlank]

Hmm, I don't know: here in Erith, T = 12C, and Td =9C, and sun is trying really hard to break out. As you say, however, and as it shows on the v-adv charts, the storms are likely to be elevated, if they occur - with associated crystal clear CGs, perhaps?

T = 14C, Td=10C, starting to feel a little muggy!!

Lots of good information today cheers guys

It does mean however that I've come to the conclusion I will not bother staying up haha. Hardly saw a thing Monday night let alone the chance of tonight.

Gloucestershire is under the moist plume - it curves out of NE France/Belgium, and then almost directly westwards; v-adv, and t-adv are all favourable just a few short miles west of your county. Might be worth staying up till midnight to see what pans out

[Neilsouth]

Didn't feel muggy when i picked up the kids from school

[NO LONGER POSTING]

its feels slightly warmer than of earlier today yes...oh my..I want to see some lighting..I might go dance in it if it does

[Chris K]

Gloucestershire is under the moist plume - it curves out of NE France/Belgium, and then almost directly westwards; v-adv, and t-adv are all favourable just a few short miles west of your county. Might be worth staying up till midnight to see what pans out

Thanks. I will at least keep an eye out for developments. It does feel pretty muggy here today so we will see.

[Harry]

Just had a breeze blow through the office - feels like rain bearing air!

As an aside, anyone seen the emerging ECMWF and GFS synoptics for around this time next week....in respect of ECMWF especially, PHWOOOOOOOOAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited May 2, 2012 by Harry

[dave48]

Muggy feel walking home from work in Southend...I am hoping for something tonight after sleeping through the whole lot on Monday night...still can't believe that!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=lightning can you imagine if that kept its electrical activity disco tonight!!!

http://www.sat24.com/de/eu - they keep getting bigger, one thing for sure the rain is going to be heavy!!! but not sure if the electrical stuff will survive :/

http://en.allmetsat.com/images/lightning-europe.php today so far 5770 strikes in Europe not bad eh ?

[Harry]

http://www.meteox.co...soort=lightning can you imagine if that kept its electrical activity disco tonight!!!

http://www.sat24.com/de/eu - they keep getting bigger, one thing for sure the rain is going to be heavy!!! but not sure if the electrical stuff will survive :/

http://en.allmetsat....ning-europe.php today so far 5770 strikes in Europe not bad eh ?

Michael Fish has an almost identical forecast as to Monday night (Kent/Sussex/Surrey)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/me1

Peter Cockroft equally promising for thunder for the London region

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/se1

Edited May 2, 2012 by Harry

[Robbie Garrett]

AREAS IN ZONE C, MIDLANDS and SOUTHERN COUNTIES. and near CONTINENT. 15KM -RA ISOLATIONS 7KM RA/SHRA with ISOLATIONS 4000m RADZ, ISOLATIONS ISOLATIONS of 3000M +RA/(+TRSA C1) C1 = London, Heathrow and north of that affectively all the way to Breacon (pretty much) up to just south Manchester.

1100z TAF for Heathrow - PROB40 TEMPO 0221/0305 3000 +RA TSRA

40% chance of heavy rain and Thunderstorm rain!

Edited May 2, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[NO LONGER POSTING]

AREAS IN ZONE C, MIDLANDS and SOUTHERN COUNTIES. and near CONTINENT. 15KM -RA ISOLATIONS 7KM RA/SHRA with ISOLATIONS 4000m RADZ, ISOLATIONS ISOLATIONS of 3000M +RA/(+TRSA C1) C1 = London, Heathrow and north of that affectively all the way to Breacon (pretty much) up to just south Manchester.

1100z TAF for Heathrow - PROB40 TEMPO 0221/0305 3000 +RA TSRA

40% chance of heavy rain and Thunderstorm rain!

40% chance is okay...I see the planes take off from Heathrow and land so I guess im in an "ok" spot

[Robbie Garrett]

40% chance is okay...I see the planes take off from Heathrow and land so I guess im in an "ok" spot

I think Harry/Coast or Paul touched on earlier the best spot being East Anglia. Possibly even North half of Kent and London, pretty much round 2.

[Supacell]

Hmm its looking more promising now i feel. Nowt up here as usual. I am thinking I could get away with just driving as far as the northern home counties/ southern Midlands and see something. Any thoughts as to the northern limit tonight, my guess would be the A14???

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I think Harry/Coast or Paul touched on earlier the best spot being East Anglia. Possibly even North half of Kent and London, pretty much round 2.

yes...I think will depend how far north the "storms" go before heading west..And if they develop as they move west..Im west London so you never know

[Harry]

I think Harry/Coast or Paul touched on earlier the best spot being East Anglia. Possibly even North half of Kent and London, pretty much round 2.

With approaching Lows it's always very difficult to second guess where cells/areas of rain will hit.

I think Suffolk/Essex/N Kent/C London/Herts/Bucks etc will be the primary zone, but obviously either side of that a possibility also.

Furthermore, there is a chance (albeit smaller than Monday night) that something may fire around our shores, adding that extra element of "who knows"

WIll be an evening of cloudspotting and radar watching...what is relatively promising (although by no means a guarantee of anything) is that the cells over the continent at this stage are far larger and more electrically active than Monday night. However, we have less instability here and I presume (would be great if those in the know could clarify) less MLCAPE too.

[saint]

Look's promising for some activity tonight, but I'm not sure that I want any tonight after Monday night, which woke me up with a shock, and somehwat disturbed my sleep!

[tara303]

40% chance is okay...I see the planes take off from Heathrow and land so I guess im in an "ok" spot

Is it ok to get excited yet? lol!

[dave48]

Will be interesting to what we get from tonights activities, by no means a guarantee of any thunder though, but there certainly looks a chance.

[Supacell]

I would be interested to know how much MLCAPE is up there according to the 12z. SBCAPE is irrelevant in tonights chances from what I gather as storms will be elevated.

[dave48]

I would be interested to know how much MLCAPE is up there according to the 12z. SBCAPE is irrelevant in tonights chances from what I gather as storms will be elevated.

See this, in french though...

http://www.keraunos....lution-8-km.htm

Edit: the whole site is great and worth exploring, you don't need to know to much french to find your way around.

Edited May 2, 2012 by dave48

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Is it ok to get excited yet? lol!

Well the sun is out..The birds are singing.. Apparently it feels muggy the storms are there..so I dunno yes I guess

[staplehurst]

I would be interested to know how much MLCAPE is up there according to the 12z. SBCAPE is irrelevant in tonights chances from what I gather as storms will be elevated.

The NMM is simulating 300J/kg MLCAPE at various times through this evening, spreading further westwards across the M4 corridor overnight.

[Harry]

The NMM is simulating 300J/kg MLCAPE at various times through this evening, spreading further westwards across the M4 corridor overnight.

Superb! That's better than Monday night I believe

Still, one must refrain from outward bursts of emotion, especially where it may be prematurely placed!

[staplehurst]

Superb! That's better than Monday night I believe

Still, one must refrain from outward bursts of emotion, especially where it may be prematurely placed!

Yeah, each run of the NMM kept jumping backwards and forwards on Monday's event with various amounts of MLCAPE, and it's location. Tonight on the other hand it has been much more consistent so perhaps a promising sign in that respect?

The 0z NMM Analysis for Monday night gave up to 550J/kg MLCAPE over Kent.

Edited May 2, 2012 by staplehurst

[Supacell]

Thanks dave and staplehurst. I am seriously considering taking a long long drive to be part of the fun tonight, I am hungry for a storm.