Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm strikes in the channel now! Moving west as predicted...But will it make it!!!

[Robbie Garrett]

Superb! That's better than Monday night I believe

Still, one must refrain from outward bursts of emotion, especially where it may be prematurely placed!

http://www.isleofwig..._storm_data.htm strikes in the channel now! Moving west as predicted...But will it make it!!!

I don't like the idea of these moving westwards as that didn't work out for me on Monday, was just watching Harry and his lightshow.... no wonder it didn't show up on any of the ATD trackers. He probably accidentally plugged his G-Whiz into the national grid. They seemed good heading Northwest, not west.

Edited May 2, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I don't like the idea of these moving westwards as that didn't work out for me on Monday, was just watching Harry and his lightshow.... no wonder it didn't show up on any of the ATD trackers. He probably accidentally plugged his G-Whiz into the national grid. They seemed good heading Northwest, not west.

They are now moving west because this is the direction of the moisture plum from the near continent if I am correct in saying that...

[Robbie Garrett]

They are now moving west because this is the direction of the moisture plum from the near continent if I am correct in saying that...

Wind direction from south/south east is best generally. If it's a more westerly component (so that's an easterly wind) they started to fizzle out. This plume is based on convergence, from how I read it a mass of air from for example the north/northwest (cold polar/polar continental) hitting continental air from the south east/south.

Let's see what happens, Monday was pretty much terrible once they started heading westbound.

Latest TAF's indicate a lower probability but brings Gatwick into the equation, and doesn't seem to suggest anything for East Anglia.

London Gatwick PROB30% of 3000 +RA TSRA BKN006 BKN030CB, same for London Heathrow. This is not present in any of the other airports. Only Gatwick and Heathrow.

This probably explains the biggest god damn plume ever.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intertropical_Convergence_Zone

Edited May 2, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Neilsouth]

Still not confident for kent tonight, better for EA as everything across europe storm wise for us is further north and being shunted towards EA.. If you want something for us it looks clear across brussels

[Paul Sherman]

Most of the 12z Models now viewed show various scenarios, some further North and some Further South, what they do all show is embedded Thunderstorms, pure luck of the draw tonight I am afraid, some places will get lucky with 2 maybe 3 burst of electrical activity and some places will miss out, But the good thing is the models show possible embedded Thunderstorms thats the main thing!

[vortex_liam]

So i go away for a bit and all this potential happens Someone give me a quick brief while i struggle to catch up

[Robbie Garrett]

Still not confident for kent tonight, better for EA as everything across europe storm wise for us is further north and being shunted towards EA.. If you want something for us it looks clear across brussels

MetOffice don't seem to think so.... hence the reason the TAFs for London have came inline for potential.

[Wilxy]

So i go away for a bit and all this potential happens Someone give me a quick brief while i struggle to catch up

Im guessing the potential is looking better than previously as i type it suddenly starts raining heavily similer to monday night

Especially across the Southeast

Edited May 2, 2012 by TomW

[staplehurst]

MetOffice don't seem to think so.... hence the reason the TAFs for London have came inline for potential.

Given the northward shift in the 12z's, what does Stansted/Luton et al say (ie those to the north of London)?

[Neilsouth]

MetOffice don't seem to think so.... hence the reason the TAFs for London have came inline for potential.

Don't take much notice of the met tbh, only what is nowcast

[Lauren]

OK it appears from reading this thread the storm may have been going on a lot longer than I realised. It appears to have started around 11.10pm here. I only noticed it at 12am despite me having the curtains open. I think I must have been too engrossed in TV to have noticed, meaning I missed out on the best part! and only caught the last 20 minutes or so when it was moving away.....

[Robbie Garrett]

Given the northward shift in the 12z's, what does Stansted/Luton et al say (ie those to the north of London)?

Don't take much notice of the met tbh, only what is nowcast

Those TAF's where pretty much updated on the basis of what the MetOffice had in there faces at 1700z (6pm/1800Local). TAFs are probably only just below a nowcast, because of the risks involved with aviation. They are pretty much a general indicator for the weather that's about to happen/current weather and what's happening in the next 12hrs (Short TAF) or 18hrs (Long TAF)

London Stansted and Luton seems to be heavy rain and overcast at 600ft. Only Heathrow and Gatwick, Brize Norton are showing thunderstorms in rain in there TAFs for the South.

Edited May 2, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[dave48]

Sferics in the north sea now off Holland, first proper effort out to sea.

Edit: met office forecasting this to come through quite quickly , clearing the south east by 1am.

Edit 2: sfterics on the atd, lightning in oxfordshire.

Edited May 2, 2012 by dave48

[Harry]

Well chaps not far from home now and the skies are looking good (much like Monday night). Angry looking Ac streaming in the from ESE with the mugginess taking a jump! Little lines of button mushroom shaped Ac/Cu too.

[Wilxy]

Things are getting intresting already some strong echoes appearing on the front edge of the main band.

[audiotech]

About 10mins ago had a flash of lightning and loud crack of thunder here. Just south of Oxford. Sporadic light to heavy bursts of rain too.

Edit: seems to be showing the single strike I heard on the lightning detector here:

http://www.netweathe...lightning;sess=

Edited May 2, 2012 by audiotech

[Wilxy]

I prey that cell in oxfordshire continues its strength its producing lightning and heading straight for me.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Essex or perhaps S Suffolk for my area. Here it's bloomin' cold with a nasty NEly . Probably get some moderate rain by morning though. But, you never really know, do you?

[AWD]

I prey that cell in oxfordshire continues its strength its producing lightning and heading straight for me.

We can but only hope mate! Lol!

Ian Fergusson mentioned embedded thunder in his forecast for our area and into Gloucs. earlier!

[DeepSnow]

Even here in south wales, though im only suppose to get rain there is a muggyiess and the skies just have that thundery look like after a hot summers day when there are thunderstorms in the evening with that misty look in the distance and the stormy looking skies! I can but only hope that something happens around these parts, nice to see one or two showers ahead of the main band have some sferics to them!

[Supacell]

That sferic in Oxford is almost on the same line as all the stuff across Holland.

[Robbie Garrett]

Fairly decent MCS forming over Dortmund right now.

[Wilxy]

It seems to be slowly becoming bigger i just hope it doesnt die but knowing my luck it will.

Edit: Conditions look ok at the moment 12.2C 91% humidity and DP 11C

Edited May 2, 2012 by TomW

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I know the main action is much later on.. what strikes me ( haha) is that Gatwick and Heathrow have issued a thunderstorm warrant off 40% yet Luton hasn't (yet) ??