Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012

[Chris K]

Rumble of thunder here in S Glos

[Wilxy]

Yes finally thunder and lightning !!!!!! wooooooo!!!!

[Paul Sherman]

WEST - Give the EAST Our Storms Back - Pmsl

[A.J]

AJ, tuesday was a complete washout for me, absolutely horrendous, Sunday though not too bad

Honestly?...blimey it stopped raining here at 3pm, oh well...Anyhoos, the updated models do support an area of persistent rain hanging around here for quite a while tomorrow, which is a turn up for the books, as when I left for work this morning it looked a dry day tomorrow...Maybe it will be a 'washout' after all.....back to tonight, an outside sniff of seeing a flash of lightning, but I won't be holding my breath, or staying up I think

[weatherobsuk]

Reading METAR is about interpretation, there's some abbreviations used on the Model Chat/Stratospheric Warming thread which I'm currently teaching myself on. I particularly enjoy METAR's as they give a rough estimation about the variables expected at that particular airport both at present and near future. It's invaluable to those within the aviation business.

[Norfolk Sheep]

WEST - Give the EAST Our Storms Back - Pmsl

Noticed that the sky to the SE is looking all MCS again....quite eerie when the moon pops out now and again

[A.J]

WEST - Give the EAST Our Storms Back - Pmsl

In the immortal words of Frankie Howard...'Not on your nelly!' ...lol

It doesn't surprise me to hear reports of thunder in the south midlands, I was working in Bishampton this afternoon/evening, about 5 miles from Evesham, Gloucestershire and after a warm, humid afternoon, mid-level Ac Cas was thick enough to give out a few drops of thundery rain and the skies looked especially disturbed and unstable to my south east (about 6pm)...Looking at the radar imagery for that time, it must have been the cell to the west of Oxford

[legritter]

just saw two bright flashestowards bristol area , gone muggy occasional odd spot of rain . just put radio on and some good crackling on my old radio ,ITS BUILDING , any heavy rain east or north of bristol and anything happening in the swindon area ,cheers

[staplehurst]

Dry here in Norwich but have seen one bright flash to my SE about 10 mins ago, and a faint rumble about 5 mins before that, but not much else. Seems to have stopped really.

Edit: As I posted another very bright flash to my south (no thunder)

Edited May 2, 2012 by staplehurst

[twister2005]

needs to go a little further north come on

[Neilsouth]

We are clearly on the southern flank of this storm line which stretches right into europe, this doesn't include london Thus far the TAFS are wrong people rely way to much on the met office... It's made no attempt to come further south looping radar and sat pic shows that

Edited May 2, 2012 by Victor Meldrew

[Wilxy]

More thunder

[staplehurst]

Numerous CG's from this cell to my S/SSW (of Norwich) right now, about 2 per min on average.

No thunder though sadly.

Edited May 2, 2012 by staplehurst

[NO LONGER POSTING]

We are clearly on the southern flank of this storm line which stretches right into europe, this doesn't include london Thus far the TAFS are wrong people rely way to much on the met office... It's made no attempt to come further south looping radar and sat pic shows that

Dude, dont loose hope...This is unfolding into a bigish event..Like I have said..Look at the PPN over England..See that slight movement south...This could be game!

[Robbie Garrett]

We are clearly on the southern flank of this storm line which stretches right into europe, this doesn't include london Thus far the TAFS are wrong people rely way to much on the met office... It's made no attempt to come further south looping radar and sat pic shows that

Actually come to think of it, the TAFs are valid from now till early hours Thursday Morning... so we are only 1hr into that period.

The information I provided earlier, as well as the recent information I've provided which I have just been criticsed for posting because I am not a professional pilot (not all of us have £90k to afford that) does show the key areas, being north of London north of the occluded front. So the MetOffice in some aspects have been correct. Whoever did the TAFs clearly didn't look at the F215 charts or the Airmet. (would be surprised if it's ever the same person).

Problems thus far, are the Airmet and F125 are correct. The Gatwick/Heathrow TAFs are not in terms of +TSRA. But then saying that, it doesn't mean the Stansted/Luton TAFs are correct, because there hasn't been any TSRAs in there forecasted area, as of yet...

Edited May 2, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Norfolk Sheep]

Numerous CG's from this cell to my S/SSW (of Norwich) right now, about 2 per min on average.

No thunder though sadly.

Should be on my doorstep as well, went out earlier but din't see nuthin

[Costa Del Fal]

Icelandic ATD has picked up an sferic just South of here but nothing going on here so I think its false.

[Weather Wizard]

In my opinion Robbie has been unfairly victamised the TAF's and Metars are extremely valuable ways of predicting T-storms and other weather around an airfield and thus in the surrounding area they are very easy to learn and you can easily 'translate' them online.

Keep up the good work Robbie

[5thchang]

Big cell near clacton at the moment

[Neilsouth]

This is the high storm risk line, anything below southend is of low risk

[AWD]

Nothing but rain in Bristol at the moment

[Norfolk Sheep]

Should be on my doorstep as well, went out earlier but din't see nuthin

ooh, seen a flash

[Staffordshire]

Think I'll sty up for a couple of hours to see if Im in fo a chance, If nit I'm going to bed , good luck everyone! x

[staplehurst]

Flashes become much less frequent now, must've gone through a short phase of intensification and now weakened, the strikes don't really correlate that well with any heavier precip on the radar strangely, but it all makes for interesting viewing

[Andy Pepler]

did i see lightning to my north west ??? .hf radio is horrid at the moment with all of the rf crashes .