Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 15th June 2012>

[SimonP]

So far we have only covered models from GFS so it will be interesting to see what other models start showing through the course of the day. Unfortunately GFS has sent things a bit further South West over France overnight:

I also noticed that the MetO changed their textual forecast for the overnight period Weds into Thurs - they went from "thundery rain probably affecting southern Britain" to "thunder rain possibly affecting southern Britain" yesterday, and now they have removed any mention of thundery activity Bah!

[Coast]

With regard to the specific potential for tomorrow night and the few hours into Wednesday, the HiRLAM charts still have things out to the East on the other side of the Channel, much where GFS had it yesterday:

Still deliciously close to our shores:

The Netweather Extra NMM charts have it much further West and out in the Channel, going to be interesting to see who gets this right and where it will end up, if at all on the UK mainland:

[AWD]

NAE still gives us something:

http://t.co/sxisbd2a

[Coast]

NAE still gives us something:

A bit too far West for me personally, but in line with the GFS and NMM so far this morning.

[NL]

Big explosive convection kicking off here along the NE coast. Some pretty amazing cloud structure.

NW 5min radar.

[AWD]

A bit too far West for me personally, but in line with the GFS and NMM so far this morning.

Take note people, a once in a 1000 year quote there!

[Coast]

Take note people, a once in a 1000 year quote there!

Actually I've been in the TStorm drought zone this year so far. One little rumble and that could have been because I missed lunch!!!!

[NL]

Alas no thunder with those showers but torrential downpour and a little more to follow going by the radar.

[P-M]

I can confirm NL I am in Shields today and just had a torrential downpour but no thunder.

[bennewsman]

I notice MetOffice have issued weather warning for Thursday in the South: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=3

Heavy rain is expected to spread north-eastwards during Thursday across parts of southern England and South Wales, with torrential downpours and thunderstorms possible in places.

The public should be aware of large amounts of spray on roads and, in some places, minor flooding.

[Costa Del Fal]

Met Office seem very keen on Thunderstorm in the SW on Wednesday night, perhaps pushing into the Midlands/Wales later on.

[Coast]

Met Office seem very keen on Thunderstorm in the SW on Wednesday night, perhaps pushing into the Midlands/Wales later on.

Maybe this is why?

[Costa Del Fal]

Maybe this is why?

I just hope this doesnt shift East like it usually does in these set ups. The West is well overdue its turn for something thundery however whats the chances of just rain here, turning Thundery just as it reaches the East. :lol:

[Mapantz]

I just hope this doesnt shift East like it usually does in these set ups. The West is well overdue its turn for something thundery however whats the chances of just rain here, turning Thundery just as it reaches the East.

Well overdue?? 7 years overdue here!

[Coast]

I just hope this doesnt shift East like it usually does in these set ups. The West is well overdue its turn for something thundery however whats the chances of just rain here, turning Thundery just as it reaches the East.

Of course I want it to shift East (how NIMBY is that??) But then there's only one way to find out!!!!

[Costa Del Fal]

Of course I want it to shift East (how NIMBY is that??) But then there's only one way to find out!!!!

The fight is on!!!

West is Best!

Edited June 19, 2012 by Blizzards

[Eskimo]

EAST IS...errrm...

[Aaron]

Not everywhere in the east of the country has fared well.. I bet there are many places in the West of the UK that have had far more storms than I have.

[Coast]

I guess the best compromise would be the HiRLAM hi-res charts that currently have it in a broad area along the frontier to the whole South coast:

[NUT]

Miss tobin mentioned heat building and thunderstorms pushing up during thursday (how accurate that will be who knows) North east scotland has showers with lightning being detected

[A.J]

Miss tobin mentioned heat building and thunderstorms pushing up during thursday (how accurate that will be who knows) North east scotland has showers with lightning being detected

...that's a good one!

[Coast]

MetO warning out and interestingly they give the direction of flow as NE through Thursday........

Issued at - 19 Jun 2012, 11:35

Heavy rain is expected to spread north-eastwards during Thursday across parts of southern England and South Wales, with torrential downpours and thunderstorms possible in places. The public should be aware of large amounts of spray on roads and, in some places, minor flooding.

Yellow Alert of Rain for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex & Wokingham

valid from 0000 Thu 21 Jun to 1200 Thu 21 Jun

Looks like I am going to have to wait until the daytime to see anything drifting up to work in West Sussex, but I'll live with that.

[Arnie Pie]

while waiting for tomorrow nights solstice/storm fest.....Here a small lightning time lapse from Fridays storms around Birmingham

Brumcam will be on overnight, Wednesday until dawn

[Eskimo]

while waiting for tomorrow nights solstice/storm fest.....Here a small lightning time lapse from Fridays storms around Birmingham

Brumcam will be on overnight, Wednesday until dawn

Where's the timelapse?

[Coast]

while waiting for tomorrow nights solstice/storm fest

Owww forgot all about that - will the druids get wet or will a lightning bolt land on Stonehenge - well it's geographically possible at the moment!!!!