South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - June 18th 2012>

[Methuselah]

No thunder here, just breezy with sunny intervals...

[Keraunic]

Sun out now and it's blue skies and racing clouds. Could that mean some convection for later perhaps? (still have a lot to learn)

[Steve C]

Just had a VERY heavy downpour here with some thunder and one or two flashes of lightning. Did get some on camcorder but not much as rain was pouring in through open door. T still grumbling in distance. So *thumbs up* to the clever devils who forecast that.

Thanks for the 'heads up.' It looks like a fairly sharp trough from the radar picture. Will hit my area in a few minutes, although we don't have thunder indicated further south. Glad you got your storm.

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[john pike]

quick cape update for thursday from 06z

[Steve C]

Now raining heavily here. I think it's messed up my tv!

[Snowangel-MK]

Now raining heavily here. I think it's messed up my tv!

*tsk* it's like the washing you had plenty time to have got it in

[dallas]

For thursday on the storm risk maps my area is under 60-80%, but on the 7day forecast it's zero, not sure why that is

[Steve C]

*tsk* it's like the washing you had plenty time to have got it in

That is one bizarre photo!

[lottiekent]

For thursday on the storm risk maps my area is under 60-80%, but on the 7day forecast it's zero, not sure why that is

I have 85% chance on Thursday on both the 7 day forecast and the storm risk

The "will it storm" one has 4 lightning bolts under the cloud...that just about sums up the amount of lightning I've seen here the last two years

[dallas]

I have 85% chance on Thursday on both the 7 day forecast and the storm risk

The "will it storm" one has 4 lightning bolts under the cloud...that just about sums up the amount of lightning I've seen here the last two years

I have just checked that and i as well have 4 bolts, maybe the 120z runs will show my storm chance % on the 7day

[andreas]

Just having one of those 'light showers' forecast - i.e. another torrential downpour. No thunder, alas.

[Biggin]

Torrential rain here too, short lived I fear tho

[Hughsey]

Amazing rain storm here at about 10, woke me up, torrential rain and very strong winds. What do we think about the chances of some convective showers this afternoon?

Edited June 24, 2012 by Hughsey

[Snowangel-MK]

Just had a short sharp shower here but it was the first one of the day, I actually sat in the garden for a while earlier (in a sheltered spot out of the wind) it was quite warm and pleasant (for spring - lol)

My 'storm chance' is 67% for Thursday but the 'storm risk'is 85% with 4 bolts...I like this one better, if only it wasn't for Thursday when I start work at 2pm so no chance of a chase in the afternoon or evening for me, oh well it hasn't happened yet anyway

[Steve C]

It looks like there's a reasonable chance of a good thundery breakdown mid to late week - possibly the best for years.

Could be a very good call by JP from last Thursday, although the chart he posted then was a bit more extreme than the still very decent ones above. Whatever, it'll be interesting chart / forecast watching from now.

The Countryfile forecast in a few minutes being the first.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Just had a VERY heavy downpour here with some thunder and one or two flashes of lightning. Did get some on camcorder but not much as rain was pouring in through open door. T still grumbling in distance. So *thumbs up* to the clever devils who forecast that.

Had one a little earlier than that down near Hopton, some good lightning and thunder and torrential rain with very large raindrops! Think that brings my rumbles of thunder to 17 for the year

[Mesoscale]

That will get downgraded as we get closer to thursday as -12 Li over france is ridiculous there is no way that will play out.

[Guest archiesmummy]

Anyway....back to the weather! Clear night here, feeling bit chilly actually!

[lottiekent]

18z charts still hanging onto the storm risk for Thursday I think?

[Steve C]

That will get downgraded as we get closer to thursday as -12 Li over france is ridiculous there is no way that will play out.

Yes, that's why I posted the tongue in cheek post about tornadic activity last week. The charts, posted above, have already downgraded the lifted index, unless you're saying that other charts are still showing the same?

Edited June 24, 2012 by Speed67

[Steve C]

I see the Express has another sensationalist headline for tomorrow..

[Keraunic]

I see the Express has another sensationalist headline for tomorrow..

Ha ha! Sizzling summer and 93 degrees.. Whatever!

[john pike]

thursday as shown by 18z gfs

although cape tonight is not as high

-6 cape is still impressive

thursday pm still looks stormy

precipitation

heavy rain moving in

heavy rain and storms almost over the south east

storms over the south east with heavy rain

storms still over the far south east but moving away

temperatures

still looks good from these for thursday afternoon and evening

fax

the fax chart shows very similar to gs re the thursday storm

see the big drop on the 29th with tallys with the above

on a seperate note the ensembles are increasingly looking much drier

the storm thursday will chop and change each day but still looks good for the moment.

will update tomorrow

[ZONE 51]

15*C - 850s on Thursday thats very warm! look at the first FAX chart posted above, see the 564 line across us on Thursday, thats what is bringing the very warm and humid air mass up from the south, pulled up by the low pressure system in the west, as the fronts get closer we get unstable conditions developing and some thunderstorms breaking out to, by maybe wednesday night and thursday, this is a chance to get some night time lightning displays.

Edited June 25, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm