Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 17th July 2012>

[Keraunic]

Good luck everyone. Crikey I hope we get summat in Norwich. Even a thundery shower would be welcome. Please Thor, hear our plea.

[Cloudwatcher]

NW storm risk showing late afternoon as best chance for us, with forecast CAPE of 1135 and a LI of -4.....

hmmmm will wait and see on that one.

Edited August 4, 2012 by Cloudwatcher

[Coast]

Blimey, look at the various Skew T soundings for today and CAPE is great out to the West and the lift index (LI) is very good, almost amazing across the whole middle of the country!!!!

Right through, from West to East!

Look out friends, it's going to be electric!

http://youtu.be/lEpX5NQSEz0

[Phantom2]

very heavy rain now here in Rhoose, light aircraft being told to return to the airport ..no thunder heard yet.

[Stuart]

Last Update: 01:15UTC Wednesday 1st August 2012

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #045

ISSUED: 0900UTC SATURDAY 4TH AUGUST 2012 (GJ/SM)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

WALES

CENTRAL ENGLAND

NORTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 0900UTC UNTIL 2300UTC SATURDAY 4TH AUGUST 2012

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN EIRE FEEDING VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...HAIL...FUNNELS/WEAK TORNADOES

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING SATURDAY. SLACK LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTRED OVER SOUTHERN EIRE PROVIDES QUITE A RICH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND, COUPLED DIURNAL HEATING WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1000J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDLANDS AND EAST ANGLIA, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUITE WIDELY ACROSS THE REGIONS MENTIONED ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY MIX OUT DEVELOPMENT. STRONG UPDRAUGHTS BRING HAIL WITHIN THE MORE POTENT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES.

THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

http://skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[Supacell]

Hmm, i think i may need to head a little south of here to see the best storms looking at those charts and forecasts.

[Cloudwatcher]

Gone very overcast here now. Not going to be enough sunshine and heating today I think.

Looks like some convection happening to our east/ north east though. We are under a blanket of cloud.

Edited August 4, 2012 by Cloudwatcher

[Cloudwatcher]

I think you're being a little excessive with your pessimism and general moaning. It's 10:28!

Hmmmm. Perhaps.

(slinking off to the NSC now....good luck for today Weather09)

[Buckster]

torrential rain in Essex atm

[Thundery wintry showers]

Promising start to the day here in Sandhutton- some warm sunshine and now the convective towers are going up. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are usually hit-and-miss affairs, but whatever happens this afternoon looks "interesting" as do Sunday and Monday afternoons.

[AWD]

I will still keep to my post last night and suggest Northern England the place to be today, say areas like Leeds, Huddersfield, Preston.

Lets see how this one pans out anyway, potential is there for large swaythes of the UK and I wouldnt rule out tornadic activity in the Midlands either.

Something already looks like its trying to form over South Wales. Enjoy all!

[Polar Maritime]

Plenty of time for things to bubble up as W09 says it's only 10.30!

We do tend to get the best storms in the late afternoon in these set up's, Anywhere in central/northern England is looking most favorable as it stands.

[Lynxus]

We have some sferics just east of exmoor

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Stuff near Luton area looks like it could become very interesting! And its only 10.30, only just having a bacon sandwich!

Wow gettin huge raindrops now! cell seems to be rapidly developing over me as I speak

Edited August 4, 2012 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Supacell]

Showers seem to be moving generally NNW. Thunderstorm over N Devon heading towards Cardiff over the Bristol channel and its only 10:45am. I reckon there will be lots of storms this afternoon, i just need to put myself in a good place to catch them. Manchester looks like a good possibility but from a chasers persepective I want to stay away from big cities due to traffic congestion.

[Evening thunder]

Hmm, I think I will be off out for my first proper 'test' chase soon! Will probably go somewhere in North Devon/Somerset around the Exmoor area as I think that may get a few torrential downpours/storms today if I'm lucky (already had 4 strikes on east Exmoor). Just need to decide where exactly to go. I expect there will be more action further up country but am not really prepared to drive that far today.

[Nick F]

Despite lack of vertical shear today (winds blowing same direction at all heights), steering flow at 500mb is fairly strong (30-40 knts) across Sern UK and the radar suggests convection is training parallel to the steering flow - so if you get a shower/storm - it could last a while before it clears. So some localised flooding seems likely.

Also GFS indicates wind convergence from Sern Ireland across Irish Sea, N Wales and in across NW England this afternoon/eve, so potential for some convergence type funnels or even weak tornadoes in these areas, particularly given the indication for strong low-level instability and low LCLs.

[Cloud 10]

Looking pretty lively already at only 11.15!

A few strikes showing up as well.

Edited August 4, 2012 by Cloud 10

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Promising start to the day here in Sandhutton- some warm sunshine and now the convective towers are going up. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are usually hit-and-miss affairs, but whatever happens this afternoon looks "interesting" as do Sunday and Monday afternoons.

Already a decent line of heavy showers starting to move up into Yorkshire.

Got a good feeling about today and I'm quite happy with my current location at my girlfriends house just east of York.

I'm not planning much chasing, I'll be waiting in the fields around here where I have good 360 views. I've always wanted to get some photos of corn fields with a big storm behind, maybe today is the day!

Good luck everyone.

[Raidan]

I'm really up for chasing today but having difficulties selecting a prime location,don't want to waste time and petrol,its a should I stay or should I go senario.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Some very good cirrocumulus and altocumulus passing over me, along with a huge thunderhead visible to the SSW, presuming its the one over in Bedfordshire at the moment. Looks to be heading straight this way. I think I'm going to put my camera on standby folks!

[Cloudwatcher]

Under quite a heavy convective shower right now. Feels "thundery" if that makes sense.

[legritter]

A DAY OF WAITING AND PRAYING ,things are starting to kick off here in somerset ,one hour ago it did not look very promising but just been out in garden and some nice cells starting to pop up . im expecting some action later but looking at radar wales midlands look good for something today ,but as that low drifts in later it could be a very interesting spell right out to tomorrow .i think things will kick of very early tomorrow . there is now a possibility of a much warmer spell of weather tues to sat next week with temp possibly hitting low 80s in a few favoured locations then a thundery breakdown , so good synoptics on offer ,BEETS AZORES HIGH EVERY TIME ps ,fairly large cell developing overhead with a few v large spots of rain hitting side window ,cheers legritter

[Sprites]

thunder in london my nephew txt me just now.

[NUT]

Cloud only slowly increasing. Got a feeling when we get a shower here we will know all about it