Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[gottolovethisweather]

Although this is deep in FI, it's showing another northly blast of cold air. The jetstream looks to be keeping the azores high in the Atlantic also (the last few model runs are looking to develop the azores high but this is positioned south/west of the jetstream so is blocked from moving over the UK). Let's hope this continues!

Indeed like Chiono said, Snowy Easterlies must be looking at the wrong charts, as the type you show is what I am seeing, save for some more Northwest based flows.

Cool zonal is the synoptic type right out to Mid November as far as I can tell. Ok, zonal may possibly not be the best description, but a mild flow it certainly isn't.

Edited November 1, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[AutumnMists]

Purposely left out February because it really is too far away, it would be ridiculous to forecast 3 months out...let alone 2 months lol.

Thanks for the forecast. Seems extremely realistic compared to some other's you see lingering around the web nowadays

[gottolovethisweather]

Purposely left out February because it really is too far away, it would be ridiculous to forecast 3 months out...let alone 2 months lol.

Ok then, we will let you off, but I thought I'd best mention it before you get a list of complaints saying you've done a two-thirds winter forecast. Rather like you, I think this winter is a tough one to call right now. I'm thinking that it will be a good one for wintry precipitation, especially at elevation and maybe some decent depths. Other than that, I'm simply guessing.

Looking forward to many other folk's forecasts from here on in.

[whiskers]

have you read mark vogans forecast? if so what did you think? i just read it on snowwatch uk

[Eskimo]

have you read mark vogans forecast? if so what did you think? i just read it on snowwatch uk

Before you subscribe it says, "Daily Expert analysis from Mark Vogan".

The fact that he isn't an expert is completely defrauding so his winter forecast does not matter.

[AutumnMists]

have you read mark vogans forecast? if so what did you think? i just read it on snowwatch uk

I haven't read it and I'm not planning too (as I'm sure many people on here aren't either).

It's better to stick to professionals instead of amateurs that waste their time and don't really know anything.

[bluearmy]

i assume most of the posters looking at this thread are keen on a cold winter. therefore, as its the first of november, there is little point in looking at atlantic charts. forget all runs out to day 5 and look at NH representations beyond that point. look at what is happening to the polar vortex, look at whether the flow is flat zonal or buckled meridional. and for goodness sake, dont worry what is showing for our little part of nw europe. its going to be impossible to judge if good winter sypnotics can deliver cold to the uk. in a frigid winter in the mid lattitudes, there will be plenty of areas which are on the mild side for as the old adage states - what goes up, must come down. last feb we were, i guess unlucky in general, given what was going on less than five hundred miles to our se and that was with a zero c cet for the first 10 days of the month

[Snowman.]

what chats are they then? there is nothing interesting in the charts for next week, aka the reliable time frame whatsoever

sure the ECM in FI looks good from a NH point of view but the actual weather for our tiny island will be average to mild if those charts came off, im afraid

too many on here harp on about a displaced vortex but until we actually benefit from it with good synoptics then it don't matter really does it,

if the ECM went on after 240 what would happen ? the mid atlantic ridge would collapse into us i presume

and by the way i don't like to be patronized as you think im a new member, i was here before under a different name, and albeit i am no expert, i am not exactly a complete novice either and can read the charts

anyway still plenty of time, i just think a few on here get a bit over excited too often

Its only next week I couldn't care less if November is mild and wet as long as I get a week with a couple inches of snow and some cold within the next 4 months I'm happy!

[Snowy Easterlies]

it might just be me but when i look at the NH charts they can make northern blocking look better than it actually is, because then when i look at the normal European charts for example a greenie high don't look as good. and yes you can see most of greenland on it

Edited November 1, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Summer Sun]

I did promise a winter forecast for November/December & January so I will issue one now.

It's been a bit of a funny year in terms of the weather, there has been an awful lot of northern blocking and it's still like that currently. Having northern blocking is perfect if you want cold weather however it isn't the only thing you need unfortunately. You also need a displaced polar vortex or a lack of one, a polar vortex is a large area of low pressure that sets up every autumn-winter which scuppers the cold, it basically rolls around the Arctic knocking the northern blocking out of the way. However this year the polar vortex is taking a long time to materialise although it has appeared in the models in the next 10 days.

So here is my own opinion on the forthcoming winter...

November - I have included November in my winter prediction because it can be a very cold month, you only need to look back to 2010 to know that, although it was exceptionally cold. November will stay largely below average but have above average rainfall, this means snowfall towards the end of the month can't be ruled out. With the northern blocking in place, you also can't rule out some potent northerlies towards the end of the month.

December - December I'm finding quite difficult to forecast because many models have been flicking backwards and forwards between the two extremes (very cold or very mild). An educated guess has to be made to determine what sort of month we are likely to see. December looks to be slightly below normal but not greatly, it will be similar to November temperature wise but drier than average. I feel as though milder weather will be more frequent in this month than November.

January - It's at this point where details become less clear for obvious reasons and the guess work becomes merely a stab in the dark sometimes, however some models are going for a colder than average month. This month is where I'm expecting winter to really dig its heels in, I'm not expecting brutal temperatures but this is the month generally where we will see our highest snowfall totals and below average temperatures, however as UK winters go...milder weather cannot be ruled out of the equation.

In conclusion, a largely below average winter but nothing exceptionally cold, mild weather will fluctuate but colder weather (at the moment) looks to be winning the game. Rainfall (snowfall) on average will remain normal.

If you live in the southeast please like my Facebook page -

https://www.facebook...bookmark_t=page

Seems a realistic and sensible forecast to me

[Snowman.]

Well here goes nothing! My winter "forecast"

November - I do believe this month will be slightly below average with a milder setting half way between the month but it wont last long as I believe we may get a taste of winter with temps dropping across the UK with frost likely where skies are clear may have showers running down the north and east coast to lower levels at time it may well accumulate over time I can see these heading further depends on the balance of the could/wind direction this will continue into the first few days of December.

December - Not sure about this one I do believe this one will come out average as mild air sweeps through It will remain like this for most of the month as fronts push east. Towards the Christmas period I think we could see temps decline a little bit with high pressure in full control with a deep frost were skies are clear cant rule out a shower run down the coast these are most likely to be wintry even at lower ground. As new year comes I reckon we could see a easterly start to develop but not in full swing till January.

My beginning of winter forecast this just based on pure feeling so don't take it into assumption.

[weather is fun]

Well he is at it again. Vogan going for a high chance of a white xmas 70% for northern england 60% for southern england. If anyone remembers he was going for a white xmas last year right upto last minute. Even when it was obvious it wouldnt happen. I cant believe he actually charges now. And as someone said earlier it says expert annaylisis by mark vogan. Think he should give it up and stick to lorry driving.

[Ninman]

Well he is at it again. Vogan going for a high chance of a white xmas 70% for northern england 60% for southern england. If anyone remembers he was going for a white xmas last year right upto last minute. Even when it was obvious it wouldnt happen. I cant believe he actually charges now. And as someone said earlier it says expert annaylisis by mark vogan. Think he should give it up and stick to lorry driving.

I can't believe people are paying £3/month.I hope he is right with his forecast otherwise his subscribers are going to feel ripped off!

Anyway, I hope we get some snow over the festive period, it's the first time in my working life I am able to take the whole period off, so would be nice to have some wintry weather to enjoy

[Methuselah]

I can't believe people are paying £3/month.I hope he is right with his forecast otherwise his subscribers are going to feel ripped off!

Anyway, I hope we get some snow over the festive period, it's the first time in my working life I am able to take the whole period off, so would be nice to have some wintry weather to enjoy

Amazing innit! You think that, after last year's debacle, his followers would desert him in droves. But, as with most of his fellow muppets' acolytes, they don't??!!!

Talk about blind faith!

[UV-RAY]

Amazing innit! You think that, after last year's debacle, his followers would desert him in droves. But, as with most of his fellow muppets' acolytes, they don't??!!!

Talk about blind faith!

It's money in the bank though as it just goes to show how stupid some people are.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

He is brilliant, I pay 6 pounds so that my son can look at it too!!

BFTP

[fromey]

It's money in the bank though as it just goes to show how stupid some people are.

why pay for a forecast when you can watch it on the tv or come on here and read it for free, even an extended outlook, although you might have to sift through some disagreements first!!

all the fun of model watching!!

loving this weather at the moment, really autumnal, leaves blowing everywhere, it cool/cold, showers with some nice sun in between, roll on winter 2012/13.

have a good day folks

fromey

Edited November 2, 2012 by fromey

[weather is fun]

Cant understand why his followers think he is so good. Some of the posts on his page make me laugh. They all seem to think we are heading for a 62/63 style winter. OH DEAR. But i guess when he fails again this winter people may then realise just how far fetched he can be. Because the noises im hearing from gp is that this winter again could be a let down for us in the uk. Heres to 2013/2014 winter lol

[Chris K]

I followed Vogan's forecasts out of interest last winter when he wasn't charging....

I don't want to slate his forecasts or credibility, as no one is wrong until the outcome has occured. But, I did get a hint of cold bias, even when it was more obvious at some points during winter 2011/2012 that it wasn't going to happen or get watered down somewhat.

I felt it was a constant chase of the cold synoptics to arrive at our doors week after week. It failed to materialise and he simply said "the 'extreme cold from Europe' would of come if this shifted this way or if such and such didnt happen etc.

Perhaps it would of, but the constant optimism of charts touching F.I becoming the outcome made it sound like it was a sure thing to happen.

I think this year many forecasters will be treading carefully in what they publish, as clearly this winter sounds like it perhaps might be more difficult to know what could happen, considering the unusual patterns we have experienced this year so far.

Edited November 2, 2012 by Chris K

[snowstorm445]

Cant understand why his followers think he is so good. Some of the posts on his page make me laugh. They all seem to think we are heading for a 62/63 style winter. OH DEAR. But i guess when he fails again this winter people may then realise just how far fetched he can be. Because the noises im hearing from gp is that this winter again could be a let down for us in the uk. Heres to 2013/2014 winter lol

Amazing stuff. Your happy to fall head over heels in support for a forecaster who apparently has predicted winter to be mild (which of course he probably hasn't but we are all well acquainted with your cherry-picking abilities), yet you attack other long-range forecasters like Vogan for doing the same thing? Nice bit of double standards there.

Not that you appear to have contributed much to his page either. Seems you've already become a familiar face to most on the DM forum so you've decided to find new ground to get up to your usual antics on. Quite sad if you think about it.

[Downburst]

I haven't read it and I'm not planning too (as I'm sure many people on here aren't either).

It's better to stick to professionals instead of amateurs that waste their time and don't really know anything.

LOL - if only

[Vertical Limit]

Cant understand why his followers think he is so good. Some of the posts on his page make me laugh. They all seem to think we are heading for a 62/63 style winter. OH DEAR. But i guess when he fails again this winter people may then realise just how far fetched he can be. Because the noises im hearing from gp is that this winter again could be a let down for us in the uk. Heres to 2013/2014 winter lol

Firstly, you continually post on here ridiculing Mark Vogan and the people who follow him (I am not a fan of his at all but whatever he wants to do and charge is his business and if people want to follow him and pay for the privilege, that's their choice) but at the same time, as you post above appears to suggest, you are also following him, like it's some weird obsession.

Secondly, where on earth are you getting the impression that GP is saying winter could be a let down, if your a coldie - He has said nothing of the sort and your observation is so far from the truth it hurts. I think you need to learn to read before you post.

[johnholmes]

Because the noises im hearing from gp is that this winter again could be a let down for us in the uk. Heres to 2013/2014 winter lol

Can I suggest you re read any posts from GP and then come back and, if necessary, quote where he has posted what you suggest.

You are obviously entitled to your view but please do not misquote other folk.

[bluearmy]

How odd - i thought many of stewart's posts were bordering on winter ramping and yet some see the opposite ?? latest metoffice 30 dayer seems to show that tuesdays ecm run has been backed up by todays with a possibility that winter could start well before november is out.

[Heisenberg]

How odd - i thought many of stewart's posts were bordering on winter ramping and yet some see the opposite ?? latest metoffice 30 dayer seems to show that tuesdays ecm run has been backed up by todays with a possibility that winter could start well before november is out.

Just loving that it says wintery precip is possible.....Do the Met ever give anymore detail on thier forecasts and which models they get information from?

Edited November 2, 2012 by lloydyd