Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...

[IDO]

At least we will now get our Indian Summer!

[Captain Shortwave]

Haha got to love that little high in Germany which directs warm air from the med over us and keeps the siberian express at bay.

GFS all I can say is, you're barred!!!

Back in reality, the next week looks really exciting, if you like cold or are the CEO of an electric/gas provider

[Met4Cast]

18z goes absolutely crazy with that high pressure system! I don't think i've ever seen one so big!

[Geordiesnow]

I can't doubt that is the trend I'm seeing in the models at the moment but unless these blocking charts come closer to the reliable timeframe then its all pretty speculative at the moment.

I noticed Chino is saying the -10hpa is getting closer to eastern areas within each run and I've noticed that hence its frustrating that the winds are projected to veer NNW'ly so most of the East Coast should miss out on the snow showers(BBC forecasts now show this) but parts of Northern and Eastern Scotland should get a good pasting of snow showers on Wednesday. Hopefully if the -10hpa gets closer to the UK trend continues, it may make the cold more stubborn therefore makes Thursday weatherfront potentially more interesting although the angle of the low coming in on the GFS is still not the best compared to the UKMO/ECM!

[Tony Beets]

Hahaha pub run has already been dumped in the bin before its finished! Another variation on what could happen, but I suspect won't!!

[Rob K]

Or perhaps not. GFS officially loses it there.

[snowbob]

Sometimes you have to wonder if the pub run enjoys winding up all the doom mongers on this thread

It's like it knows lol:)

Await the ens

[cyclonic happiness]

South westerlies? Where? Slider all the way there.

You asked for it, but I'd ignore it, it's too far in FI to even consider being anywhere near reliable.

[bluearmy]

I have seen it. There has been two runs moving the vortex back over the pole at T+384. I did mention that in an earlier post - but it is far too early to read anything into that unless this pro has other available info to him. After the first line the rest of the post is ABC strat info.

This one is more n siberia. Not a bad place for us ! Tbh, the 12z wasnt quite over the pole and more siberian side.

[Cheshire Freeze]

LOL that low at the end of the high res which looks to undercut, overshoots a little and slams into Libya in low res. I would suggest that it may be a little far-fetched in its prognosis??

Edited December 3, 2012 by CreweCold

[bradymk]

Science is about trends, patterns, anomalies and no bias and this run is not inline with the trend, more of an anomaly and will be an anomaly until other models suggest otherwise or back it up which is highly unlikely imo. An anomaly does not mean it is wrong but until it becomes a trend or pattern, it is highly unlikely. Awesome ECM ensembles tonight btw, it is becoming more interesting every day at the moment. Sometime next week could be the start of a long term cold spell, lets hope (from a cold perspective) that this trend continues on the models. Regards, Matthew

[cyclonic happiness]

And look at those crazy 2m temps over Europe right at the end of the run, the models really know how to play with your emotions don't they lmao!!

[IDO]

Blocking in place on this run. It just shows that things can go wrong for the UK and we get on the less cold side of the block and in this instance (borderline worse case scenario?) its mild/average and little sign of anything cold. Its possible but in the 30% chance IMO. Expect more like this run in the next 4/5 days (law of averages). You have to ignore it unless a trend shows.

[PolarWarsaw]

This can't be ignored at all, but it doesn't look particularly plausible at the moment. Lets hope we get back on the right side of things early morning!

[Weathizard]

I think it can be ignored actually, people always say ignore runs if they are EXTREMES (Ie, Too good to be true/Too terrible to be true) this one is so far fetched its actually funny, if the next GFS shows similar I will sit up and take notice.

I'll take a punt that this is rather large outlier and that the ensembles will probably actually be better(taking out the op and control runs)

[bobbydog]

at least it will be mild.....

[Geordiesnow]

18z goes absolutely crazy with that high pressure system! I don't think i've ever seen one so big!

3rd January 2008 produced a very large Scandi high(1055MB) with a slider low, sadly it never really worked out though as the Atlantic came in very quickly. Some Eastern areas did recieve snow showers on that day before they died away and nothing ever accumulated.

I'm not the biggest fans of these massive highs because you can get a situation where the UK is in the middle of the battle and we get a consistent stream of southerlies but Feb 1991 one does show how a large Scandi high can work out though.

[snowking]

Seriously, some people in here have no idea how to clutch at straws...

Thats how you do it.

For the record, this run is not any less plausible than any other run in high-res. All the talk of 'background' signals doesn't seem to have much discussion/evidence to back it up from the majority of posters this evening.

Yes, signals would favour HP to our NE at present....that doesn't guarantee our little island is going to end up in a favourable part of the block...its just one of a few potential outcomes

Let's not lose any objectivity folks

SK

[Southender]

And here come the Atlantic south westerlies after blowing away a block the size of Europe and half of Asia, like a dandelion in the breeze lol.

Perfectly summed up. Will not happen. Bin.

[john mac]

Seriously, some people in here have no idea how to clutch at straws...

Thats how you do it.

For the record, this run is not any less plausible than any other run in high-res. All the talk of 'background' signals doesn't seem to have much discussion/evidence to back it up from the majority of posters this evening.

Yes, signals would favour HP to our NE at present....that doesn't guarantee our little island is going to end up in a favourable part of the block...its just one of a few potential outcomes

Let's not lose any objectivity folks

SK

I'm not saying it does but I think we need to look at what GP has said over the last few days. He hasn't mentioned anything mild and he seems extremely confident with his thoughts. I'm not saying he's right but at the same time I think the beast wi be knocking on our door very soon.

[Theresnoway]

Any update on the ECM 32? I believe that was due at 11pm...

[nick sussex]

Not sure if these have been posted yet.

The latest CPC charts:

6 to 10 day

8 to 14 day

[Zakos]

I think a major pattern change is on the horizon, with a very large high pressure system trying to set up shop over Scandinavia.

The GFS tonight is clearly struggling to deal with the output, and reverts to default as it always does in complicated situations.

However if we take 96 hours as FI, there is a clear upgrade at 96 hours on the GFS tonight

12Z

18z

The low is further south and the Siberian high is further west. That is all we can take from this from this run. I guarantee you the GFS low res is going be completely different come tommorow.

We have to take 96 hours or so as FI, as long as we continue to see upgrades within this time-frame, I will remain positive.

Edited December 3, 2012 by Zakos

[snowking]

I'm not saying it does but I think we need to look at what GP has said over the last few days. He hasn't mentioned anything mild and he seems extremely confident with his thoughts. I'm not saying he's right but at the same time I think the beast wi be knocking on our door very soon.

Wholeheartedly agree my friend

But we can't write off an operational run - and perhaps more ridiculously label it as an outlier before we've even had a sniff of the ensembles (should really get some people on here to do the lottery numbers too!) just based around this.

I sincerely hope the 18z is off the mark and you would suspect, set against the background of the other operational NWP output from today that it is indeed a bit of an anomaly....however, its not a million miles from the ECMWF.

As usual, I suspect its overdoing the atlantic lows as soon as we hit low res, but the damage is done a little before that with the angle of the attempted undercut

SK

[fergieweather]

This can't be ignored at all, but it doesn't look particularly plausible at the moment. Lets hope we get back on the right side of things early morning!

No, clearly it shouldn't be ignored. Potential milder interludes to S & W especially have been a consistent theme in the UKMO trend progs over many recent days. Equally, they rightly query the scope and longevity of any blocking over next 10-15 days, but the key driver now for future longer MR statements will hinge on the continuity (or not) of the new EC32. We await with interest, imminently.