Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12

[Matty M]

Picture this if we managed to pull in a bit more cold air from the east further south.

Some clash.

[TEITS]

Im moving to Scotland if the UKMO is right. Who will have me??

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?16-17

Difference between the 06Z/12Z is laughable.

Im not making a forecast except that I do feel NE Scotland is the place to be as I said this morning.

Edited December 16, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[LomondSnowstorm]

We definitely are 'getting closer'; the question is: to what?

Christmas.

And also, this:

Now THAT could be heaven for Scotland (pending a quick check on the uppers)...

[Matty M]

We definitely are 'getting closer'; the question is: to what?

A cold outcome this side of Christmas as many binned as a laughable option.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Im moving to Scotland if the UKMO is right. Who will have me??

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?16-17

Plenty of us down the east coast on the Scottish thread who would take you in

[Panayiotis]

Im moving to Scotland if the UKMO is right. Who will have me??

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?16-17

Difference between the 06Z/12Z is laughable.

Im not making a forecast except that I do feel NE Scotland is the place to be as I said this morning.

100 miles south and well all be staying where we are!

[Methuselah]

I hope so...the +10 uppers a tad further south?

[karyo]

Im moving to Scotland if the UKMO is right. Who will have me??

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?16-17

Difference between the 06Z/12Z is laughable.

Im not making a forecast except that I do feel NE Scotland is the place to be as I said this morning.

This is even better than the GFS as the low is further south and east!

Karyo

[Snowstorm1]

Christmas.

And also, this:

Now THAT could be heaven for Scotland (pending a quick check on the uppers)...

Reckon northern England could get involved with that chart im starting to get interested now the models are gradually trending this cold air south and west the BI would appreaciate the visit

[Matty M]

Im moving to Scotland if the UKMO is right. Who will have me??

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?16-17

Difference between the 06Z/12Z is laughable.

Im not making a forecast except that I do feel NE Scotland is the place to be as I said this morning.

We're close TEITS, the question is can we continue this trend another 200 miles further south and give us the outcome we desire?

It's a tough one. Probably 60:40 against.

[AGAL]

Now whats happening at 144 another breakaway low? http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png Med bound. Doubt it.

Sod the models they're just playing with our afflictions

We definitely are 'getting closer'; the question is: to what?

Further dissapointment.

Edited December 16, 2012 by AGAL

[karyo]

OMG! The whole Atlantic low is starting to go under the block!

Cold uppers return to Scotland from the east!

Karyo

[Matty M]

It's best not to look beyond T120 at this stage.

So much to be decided between 72hrs and then.

[Methuselah]

Run seems to promise an attack from the East, North or even both...Will it?

[Panayiotis]

Bulls-eye for the UK could get very messy if this verifies and more trouble for already flooded areas... http://cdn.nwstatic....171/h500slp.png

If this does verify Christmas day could be very cold as we drag down those colder uppers on the back edge of the low, however it has to move east!

Edited December 16, 2012 by panayiotis

[Chris K]

I think the amount of rainfall from this run should also be taken into account. Most of Ireland , Wales and C/S England especially.

Weds 19th

Thurs 20th, 24 hours later.

Saturday 22nd

Sunday 23rd - Quite a powerful Low pressure system over the UK:

Details will change this far out and knowing the GFS, these may weaken as we get closer to the day. Something to watch over this week as well as cold seeking haha...

Edited December 16, 2012 by Chris K

[swfc]

Pretty big jump there between the o6z and 12z to be fair and so there lies the uncertainty.Anything past 120hrs is up in the air

[cooling climate]

GFS out to t180 and for the sake of 500 miles the country would be seeing

copious amounts of snow rather than buckets of rain.

The good thing is the trend is going south all the time so you never know.

[Paul T]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121216/12/174/ukwind.png

Merry Chirstmas to those in Cornwall...now go and retrieve the roof of your house from the sea...

[RUSH]

Been looking through historical charts on wetterzentrale and you are really are hard pushed trying to find hard winters in the UK, there almost none existant .

1963,1947 and 1895 being really the only ones in the last 140 years. So where talking like 1 great winter every 50 years, I think a lot of people's expectations in here are a little OTT in what they want to see in the charts!

Although we are hard pushed in finding the perfect winter synoptics for the whole season, we are still able to get the odd rare ''super cold spell' that I've noticed usually come inside a very poor winter or can happen at any stage of the winter.

So when I hear winters over posts this early or where soooo unlucky I just find it funny The next big thing could be just around the corner and we wouldn't be any the wiser as there's usually little warning and no obvious signs to suggest what's coming. To me the weather really does what it wants and the amount of things going on at once meteorologically, I think even our best computers are still miles off predicting what our weather will show past two weeks as the butterfly effect across our small island that is the UK is really emphasized.

Look at where we are now compared to the great winter of 1894/95

(Current charts)

Not a lot of difference to be honest. And let's face it there's been a fair few people rate our current output as dire.

The winter of 1895 all kicked off from a simple retrogressing high towards greenland and a resulting northerly (just like the models are hinting at at long range ; ) get me gist )

The rest was history:

I think we should forget about this phantom easterly and hoping for little westward movements every run, the chances of anything noteworthy are futile and like nick sussex said earlier, the longer this none event hangs around the longer it will take for anything more substantial to develop. I want the high to retreat back back east and let's see if we can get some retrogression towards/after christmas, a northerly shown on the ECM in it's latter stages would be most welcome and COULD be the preluder to something BIG!

And what do you know, the last big winter came exactly 50 years ago

very well put

[Continental Climate]

This chart is miles better than the 06z and screams potential http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png!!! That would only take at 200 mile southward drop and BINGO!!! It is LALA land so the usual caveats apply of course, but if it did trend south then the whole uk could be involved in time for xmas

[AWD]

What's the chances of the GFS over deepening that low though?

Rather high if I know the GFS.

[-uksnow-]

The differences between the 06z and the 12z are laughable

06

12z

[kev238]

A few days back I could not see any route to cold for Xmas. Now, there is a clear route but it is still pretty unlikelyfor areas south of Northern England. As an earlier post suggested rainfall could once again be the big news in the run up to xmas.

If the gfs run came off then severe floods across much of England and Wales would be the headline, throw in some severe gales as well!

I suspect the runs will moderate as we get closer, however the rainfall event for wed/ thursday could tip the balance in some of the saturated areas of the country.

[TEITS]

Just think if that LP was around 100 miles further S we wouldn't have to worry about the in laws coming round for xmas!